Australia from Asia: macro & credit-cycle dashboard

Traffic-light summary

Australia

Labour market

Unemployment rate🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

4.6% +0.4pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  3-mo avg 4.50%: +0.33pp vs prior-12m low, +0.23pp y/y

Why it matters for Australia: The single best real-time read on whether high real rates are cracking household cash flow (and mortgage arrears).

Rule: Stress if 3-mo avg >= 0.5pp above its low of the prior 12 months (Sahm-style); else cooling if 3-mo avg up >= 0.2pp y/y; heating if down >= 0.2pp y/y; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table H5: GLFSURSA, GLFSURTR

Underemployment & underutilisation🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

6.2% +0.5pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  underemployment +0.5pp y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Spare capacity beyond the headline rate: hours slack shows up before job losses.

Rule: Cooling if underemployment rate up >= 0.3pp y/y; heating if down >= 0.3pp; otherwise steady.

Source: ABS Data API (LF_UNDER,1.0.1): M23+M24.3.1599.20.AUS.M

Youth (15-24) unemployment rate🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

10.8% +1.1pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  +1.1pp y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Youth jobs are the marginal hire: they turn first when firms freeze hiring.

Rule: Cooling if up >= 1pp y/y; heating if down >= 1pp y/y; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Noisy monthly series (small sample).

Source: ABS Data API (LF_UNDER,1.0.1): M13.3.1524.20.AUS.M

Hours worked & employment growth (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

1.0% -0.3pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  trend hours +1.0% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Hours are the volume of labour actually used; falling hours with steady jobs is an early slowdown sign.

Rule: Trend hours y/y: heating > 2.5%; cooling < 0.5%; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table H5: GLFMHWTRYP, GLFSEPTSYP

Employment-to-population ratio🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

63.9% -0.1pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  -0.1pp y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Captures jobs relative to a fast-growing population (avoids flattering by migration).

Rule: Cooling if down >= 0.3pp y/y; heating if up >= 0.3pp y/y; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table H5: GLFSEPTPOP, GLFSPRSA

Job vacancies ('000)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

325 '000 -1.4% over 1y

Latest: Q3 2026  |  -1.4% y/y; vacancies/labour force 2.1%

Why it matters for Australia: Labour demand: vacancies fall before unemployment rises.

Rule: Vacancies y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: ABS Job Vacancies survey; quarterly, dated to the middle month of the quarter.

Source: RBA table H5: GLFOSVT, GLFOSVTLF

Wage Price Index (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

3.2% -0.2pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  3.2% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Wage growth vs mortgage rates determines whether borrowers' real debt burden is easing.

Rule: Heating > 3.5%; cooling < 2.5%; otherwise steady (RBA consistent range roughly 3-3.5%).

Source: RBA table H4: GWPIYP, GWPIPRIYP

Unit labour costs & productivity (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

3.5% -1.2pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  ULC 3.5% y/y; productivity -0.3%

Why it matters for Australia: Weak productivity keeps unit labour costs (and so core inflation) sticky, which keeps real rates high.

Rule: Non-farm ULC y/y: heating > 4%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table H4: GNFULCYP, GNFPROSQP

Inflation

Trimmed mean CPI (y/y)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

3.6% +0.1pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  monthly trimmed mean 3.6% y/y (quarterly 3.6% to Jun 2026)

Why it matters for Australia: Core inflation sets the RBA path and hence the real cash rate borrowers face.

Rule: Heating > 3%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady (RBA target band 2-3%).

Caveat: ABS complete monthly CPI only starts Apr-2025; longer history uses the quarterly series (not spliced).

Source: ABS Data API (CPI,2.0.0): 3.{999902|10001}.{20|10}.50.M; RBA table G1: GCPIOCPMTMYP

Headline CPI (y/y)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

4.0% +0.0pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  4.0% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Headline drives inflation expectations and indexation of rents/wages.

Rule: Heating > 3%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Electricity rebates distort headline in 2024-26.

Source: ABS Data API (CPI,2.0.0): 3.{999902|10001}.{20|10}.50.M; RBA table G1: GCPIAGYP

Services vs goods inflation (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

3.7% +0.0pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  services 3.7%, goods 4.2% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Services inflation is domestic and labour-driven: the part the RBA can't import away.

Rule: Services y/y: heating > 4%; cooling < 2.5%; otherwise steady.

Source: ABS Data API (CPI,2.0.0): 3.104104+104101.10.50.M; RBA table G1: GCPINTIYP, GCPITIYP

Rents, insurance & electricity (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

3.6% +0.0pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  rents 3.6%, insurance 5.6%, electricity 13.2% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Rents feed directly from housing undersupply; insurance and power are the cost-of-living pinch points.

Rule: Rents y/y: heating > 5%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Electricity y/y heavily affected by government rebate timing.

Source: ABS Data API (CPI,2.0.0): 3.115522+115528+40055.10.50.M

Consumer inflation expectations (1y ahead)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

4.9% +0.2pp over 1y

Latest: Q3 2026  |  4.9%

Why it matters for Australia: Elevated expectations make the RBA slower to cut, keeping real rates high.

Rule: Heating > 5%; cooling < 3.5%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Melbourne Institute survey; median-based, structurally above actual inflation.

Source: RBA table G3: GCONEXP

Rates, credit & funding

Cash rate & real cash rate🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

Cash 4.60% (12 Oct 2026) +0.2pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  cash 4.60% minus trimmed mean = +0.75pp

Why it matters for Australia: Core of the thesis: a positive real cash rate is what squeezes credit-financed assets.

Rule: Real cash rate (cash target minus latest trimmed-mean y/y): cooling (restrictive) if > 1pp; heating (stimulatory) if < 0; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Real rate uses quarterly trimmed mean before Apr-2025 and monthly after; points only where inflation is observed (no interpolation).

Source: RBA table F1: FIRMMCRTD; RBA table G1: GCPIOCPMTMYP; ABS Data API (CPI,2.0.0): 3.999902.20.50.M

AGS 3y & 10y yields🔗 Copy linkHEATING

4.93% +51bp over 3m

Latest: 07 Oct 2026  |  3y 4.93% (+51bp 3m); 10y 5.40%; 10y-3y +47bp

Why it matters for Australia: The 3y prices the RBA path (and fixed mortgage rates); the 10y links Australia to global term premia.

Rule: 3y yield 3-month change: heating if >= +40bp (market pricing tighter policy); cooling if <= -40bp; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table F2: FCMYGBAG3D, FCMYGBAG10D

AGS 10y-3y curve🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

+0.47 pp +4bp over 3m

Latest: 07 Oct 2026  |  +47bp

Why it matters for Australia: An inverted curve says markets expect policy to be cut as growth weakens.

Rule: Cooling if inverted (< 0); heating if > 1.25pp (steep, reflationary); otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table F2: FCMYGBAG3D, FCMYGBAG10D

AGS indexed bond (real) yield🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

3.00% +48bp over 3m

Latest: 07 Oct 2026  |  3.00%

Why it matters for Australia: Real long rates discount every asset: high real yields pressure property and leveraged valuations.

Rule: Cooling (restrictive) if > 2%; heating if < 1%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: RBA 'indexed bond' series (approx. 10y target tenor).

Source: RBA table F2: FCMYGBAGID

3m BBSW minus cash rate (funding proxy)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

+0.17 pp +5bp over 3m

Latest: 12 Oct 2026  |  +17bp

Why it matters for Australia: Bank funding pressure passes straight into business and non-bank lending rates.

Rule: Stress if > 0.40pp; cooling (market pricing cuts) if < -0.20pp; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Proxy for BBSW-OIS: RBA stopped publishing OIS rates in Dec-2022, so the spread also embeds expected cash-rate moves over 3 months.

Source: RBA table F1: FIRMMBAB90D, FIRMMCRTD

BBB corporate spread to AGS (5y)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

1.09 pp +14bp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  spread at 8th percentile of trailing 10 years

Why it matters for Australia: Corporate credit spreads show whether investors are demanding more to lend to Australian business.

Rule: Percentile of trailing 10 years: stress >= 90th; cooling 70-90th (credit tightening); heating <= 20th (very tight spreads = easy credit); otherwise steady.

Caveat: Spread computed by subtracting monthly 5y AGS yield from RBA BBB non-financial corporate 5y yield.

Source: RBA table F3: FNFYBBB5M; RBA table F2.1: FCMYGBAG5

Housing credit growth (y/y)🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

7.3% +1.2pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  y/y 7.3%, 3-mo annualised 6.2% (-1.1pp vs y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Housing credit is ~60% of private credit: its pace is the pulse of the leveraged-household thesis.

Rule: Heating if y/y > 10% or 3-mo annualised growth exceeds y/y by > 1pp (accelerating); cooling if 3-mo annualised is > 1pp below y/y (decelerating); otherwise steady.

Caveat: RBA D1 growth rates are break-adjusted.

Source: RBA table D1: DGFACH12, DGFACHM

Investor housing credit growth (y/y)🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

9.6% +2.6pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  y/y 9.6%, 3-mo annualised 6.2% (-3.4pp vs y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Investor credit is the speculative, rate-sensitive margin of the housing market.

Rule: Heating if y/y > 10% or 3-mo annualised growth exceeds y/y by > 1pp (accelerating); cooling if 3-mo annualised is > 1pp below y/y (decelerating); otherwise steady.

Caveat: RBA D1 growth rates are break-adjusted.

Source: RBA table D1: DGFACIH12, DGFACIHM

Business credit growth (y/y)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

10.9% +1.1pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  y/y 10.9%, 3-mo annualised 12.7% (+1.8pp vs y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Business credit includes lending to non-bank lenders and property; fast growth late in a cycle is a risk flag.

Rule: Heating if y/y > 10% or 3-mo annualised growth exceeds y/y by > 1pp (accelerating); cooling if 3-mo annualised is > 1pp below y/y (decelerating); otherwise steady.

Caveat: RBA D1 growth rates are break-adjusted.

Source: RBA table D1: DGFACBNF12, DGFACBNFM

Mortgage rates (variable)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

6.20% +70bp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  outstanding OO variable 6.20% minus trimmed mean = +2.60pp (Aug 2026)

Why it matters for Australia: Mortgage rate minus core inflation = the real burden on the household balance sheet.

Rule: Real mortgage rate (outstanding owner-occupier variable minus trimmed-mean y/y): cooling (restrictive) if > 3pp; heating if < 1pp; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table F6: FLRHOOVA, FLRHOFVA, FLRHIOVA

Business credit: where the last 12m went (A$bn)🔗 Copy linkINFO

Total business finance 11.9% y/y +1.5pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Why it matters for Australia: Shows whether new business credit funds productive capacity or property/financial intermediaries (incl. private credit funds).

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: RBA D14.1 is NSA and not break-adjusted; 'Financial & insurance' includes lending to non-bank financiers/funds.

Source: RBA table D14.1: industry series (via ../credit-growth-au); RBA table D14: DLBOST+DLBOMT+DLBOLT

New housing loan commitments (A$bn/qtr)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

97.6 A$bn +6.8% over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  +6.8% y/y; investor +8.1%

Why it matters for Australia: New lending is the flow that sets house prices at the margin.

Rule: Total value y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Total dwellings excluding refinancing; seasonally adjusted; ABS publishes this series quarterly.

Source: ABS Data API (LEND_HOUSING): FIN_VAL.NEWCOMMITS.*.TOTDWELL.TOT.TOT+DV5167+DV5168.20.AUS.Q

Non-ADI (non-bank) share of new housing loans🔗 Copy linkHEATING

10.7% +3.8pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  10.7% (+3.8pp y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Rising non-bank share means more housing risk sits outside APRA's prudential perimeter.

Rule: Heating if share up >= 1pp y/y (non-bank lending gaining share); cooling if down >= 1pp; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Seasonally adjusted values, dwellings excluding refinancing; ABS non-ADI coverage is registered financial corporations reporting to APRA, not all private credit.

Source: ABS Data API (LEND_HOUSING): FIN_VAL.NEWCOMMITS.*.TOTDWELL.NON_ADI+TOT.TOT.20.AUS.Q

Housing

Mean dwelling price (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

6.8% -3.2pp over 3m

Latest: Q2 2026  |  +6.8% y/y; mean price A$1,100k

Why it matters for Australia: Housing is the dominant collateral in the Australian credit system.

Rule: Heating > 7% y/y; steady 0-7%; cooling -5% to 0; stress < -5%.

Caveat: ABS quarterly with ~3-month lag; monthly Cotality index is not free (see au_housing_outlook.md for its latest prints).

Source: ABS Data API (RES_DWELL_ST,1.0.0): 5.AUS (mean price $'000)

Private dwelling approvals ('000/month)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

17.9 '000 +4.7% over 6m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  trend +4.7% over 6m

Why it matters for Australia: Approvals lead construction activity and the developer finance pipeline (where private credit is exposed).

Rule: Trend, 6-month change: heating > +5%; cooling < -5%; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table H3: GISPSDA, GISDWPRITR

Dwelling commencements & completions ('000, 4-qtr sum)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

204 '000 +13.2% over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  commencements 204k (+13.2% y/y); completions 180k; under construction 248k

Why it matters for Australia: Supply response: weak starts keep rents/prices firm but signal developer stress.

Rule: Commencements 4-qtr sum y/y: heating > +5%; cooling < -5%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Total residential, total sectors; ABS quarterly with ~3-month lag. Under construction is original series.

Source: ABS Data API (BUILDING_ACTIVITY): M6+M7+M8.AUS..TOT/1.9.100.{20|10}.Q

Activity & stress

Household spending (nominal, y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

6.8% +2.1pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  nominal 6.8%, approx real +2.8% (Aug 2026); discretionary 7.2%

Why it matters for Australia: Consumption is ~half of GDP; discretionary spending is where rate pain shows first.

Rule: Approx. real growth (HSI y/y minus monthly CPI y/y): heating > 3%; cooling < 0.5%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Nominal; real approximation subtracts headline monthly CPI (crude deflator).

Source: ABS Data API (HSI_M,1.6.0): 9.TOT+3+4.CUR.20.AUS.M

Household saving ratio🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

6.5% +0.6pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  6.5% (+0.6pp y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: A thin saving buffer leaves households less able to absorb high rates; a jump signals precautionary retrenchment.

Rule: Cooling if up >= 1pp y/y (precautionary saving); heating if down >= 1pp y/y; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table H2: GGDPICHDISR

Real GDP & GDP per capita (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

0.7% +0.3pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  per capita +0.7%, total +2.1% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Per-capita GDP strips out population growth: the 'per-capita recession' test.

Rule: GDP per capita y/y: cooling < 0%; heating > 2%; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table H1: GGDPCVGDPY, GGDPCVGDPFY

NAB business conditions🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

-4.2 net bal. -3.7 over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  -4.2

Why it matters for Australia: Business conditions lead hiring and investment.

Rule: Heating > +10; cooling < 0; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table H3: GICNBC

Westpac-MI consumer sentiment🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

80.4 -3.5 over 3m

Latest: Oct 2026  |  80.4

Why it matters for Australia: Sentiment below 100 = pessimists outnumber optimists; deep lows often coincide with rate stress.

Rule: Heating > 100; cooling < 90; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Latest point is the October 2026 survey (fieldwork 28 Sep-1 Oct, released 7 Oct; straddles the 30 Sep RBA hike). RBA stamps it 31 Oct. Verified against Westpac's release: 80.4, down from 84.4.

Source: RBA table H3: GICWMICS

Companies entering external administration (ASIC Series 1)🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

1808 count/mo 3-mo sum +16% y/y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  3-mo sum 4355 (+16% y/y); construction 3-mo 1457 (+54% y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Insolvencies are where high real rates and private-credit refinancing stress become visible.

Rule: 3-month sum y/y: stress > +25%; cooling +5% to +25%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Partial latest month dropped (data to 27 Sep 2026). Aug-2026 construction includes 542 entities of one group (Bathla) entering administration together.

Source: ASIC insolvency statistics Series 1 & 2 (xlsx): Series 1: companies entering external administration

External & commodities

Terms of trade (index)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

94.8 -0.5% over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  -0.5% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Export prices vs import prices: the main channel from China's demand to Australian national income and the budget.

Rule: y/y: heating > +5%; cooling < -5%; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table H1: GOPITT

Current account & trade balance (% of GDP)🔗 Copy linkINFO

-3.7 % GDP -1.3 over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Why it matters for Australia: A widening deficit means more reliance on foreign capital (and sensitivity to global funding costs).

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Source: RBA table I1: HCAGSCPGDP, HTBGSCPGDP

RBA commodity price index🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

106.6 +6.6% over 1y

Latest: Sep 2026  |  A$ +6.6% y/y; US$ +15.2%

Why it matters for Australia: Commodity prices in A$ drive mining profits, tax receipts and the AUD.

Rule: A$ index y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table I2: GRCPAIAD, GRCPAIUSD

Iron ore (US$/t)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

98 US$ -5.4% over 1y

Latest: Sep 2026  |  -5.4% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Australia's largest export; priced off Chinese steel demand.

Rule: y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Monthly average prices.

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (CMO historical monthly): Iron ore, cfr spot

Thermal coal, Newcastle (US$/t)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

147 US$ +38.4% over 1y

Latest: Sep 2026  |  +38.4% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Coal exports go mostly to Japan, China, Korea, India and Taiwan.

Rule: y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Monthly average prices.

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (CMO historical monthly): Coal, Australian

LNG, Japan import price (US$/mmbtu)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

14.25 US$ +24.2% over 1y

Latest: Sep 2026  |  +24.2% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: LNG is a top-3 export; Japan/Korea/China are the buyers.

Rule: y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Monthly average prices.

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (CMO historical monthly): Liquefied natural gas, Japan

Gold (US$/oz)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

4,319 US$ +17.7% over 1y

Latest: Sep 2026  |  +17.7% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Gold is now a top-3 Australian export and a hedge against real-rate/USD shocks.

Rule: y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Monthly average prices.

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (CMO historical monthly): Gold

AUD: US$ and trade-weighted index🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

0.6961 US$ -0.5% over 3m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  AUD/USD 0.6961; TWI 64.7 (-1.1% 3m)

Why it matters for Australia: The AUD is the shock absorber: it falls when China/commodities or global risk appetite weaken.

Rule: TWI 3-month change: stress if <= -5% (risk-off); heating if >= +5%; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRUSD, FXRTWI

AUD vs CNY and JPY (indexed)🔗 Copy linkINFO

AUD/CNY 4.661, AUD/JPY 110.17 -1.6% over 3m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Why it matters for Australia: AUD/CNY tracks export competitiveness into China; AUD/JPY is the classic carry/risk barometer.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRCR, FXRJY

Merchandise export share by destination (12m rolling)🔗 Copy linkINFO

35.2% +1.8pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Why it matters for Australia: Concentration risk: roughly a third of goods exports go to one economy.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Goods only, A$ values; 12-month rolling sums.

Source: ABS Data API (MERCH_EXP): TOT.CHIN+TOT+JAP+RKOR+INIA.TOT.M

Financial stress

Listed private-credit trusts: price vs NTA🔗 Copy linkSTRESS

1.645 A$ -6.0% over 1m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  MXT 1.645 vs NTA 1.962 (-16.1%); MOT 1.495 vs NTA 1.935 (-22.7%); MRE 1.410 vs NTA 2.22 (-36.5%)

Why it matters for Australia: Discounts to NTA on listed private-credit vehicles are the market's live read on loan-book quality.

Rule: Worst discount to latest NTA: stress if > 10%; cooling if 5-10%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: NTAs are MANUAL inputs: audited 30-Jun-2026 values (MXT 1.9617, MOT 1.9346, MRE 2.22) after audit write-downs announced 28 Sep; units were suspended 28 Sep to 5 Oct. NTA is ~3 months old, and monthly NTA reporting resumes, so update MANUAL_NTA. Prices from unofficial Yahoo endpoint.

Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): MXT.AX, MOT.AX, MRE.AX; Manual input: audited NTA per unit at 30 Jun 2026 (ASX announcements, 28 Sep-5 Oct 2026): MANUAL_NTA in indicators.py

ASX 200 and financials🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

8,784 -0.6% over 3m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  -5.3% vs 52-week high

Why it matters for Australia: Bank and broad-equity drawdowns tighten financial conditions and wealth effects.

Rule: ASX 200: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.

Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): ^AXJO, ^AXFJ

ASX 200 A-REITs🔗 Copy linkSTRESS

3,236 -8.8% over 3m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  -23.6% vs 52-week high

Why it matters for Australia: Listed property is the most rate-sensitive equity sector and marks commercial property in real time.

Rule: A-REIT index: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.

Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): ^AXRE

RBA Chart Pack highlights

Household balance sheet

Household debt to disposable income🔗 Copy linkINFO

178.4% +1.5pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: Household debt is 178% of annual disposable income (Q2 2026), housing debt 135%; down 9pp from the post-2015 peak of 188% (Q2 2018).

Why it matters for Australia: Australian households carry some of the highest debt loads in the world; the ratio sets how hard each rate move bites.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: Full E2 history from 1988 (quarterly, annualised income); no splice. Series revised with ABS national accounts benchmarks.

Source: RBA table E2: BHFDDIT, BHFDDIH

Household gearing (debt to assets)🔗 Copy linkINFO

16.1% -0.3pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: Debt is 16.1% of household assets and housing debt 21.9% of housing assets: housing gearing is below its post-2010 average (25.5%).

Why it matters for Australia: Gearing shows how much equity cushion sits under household debt if house prices fall.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: Full E2 history from Sep 1988; dotted line = housing gearing average since 1988.

Source: RBA table E2: BHFDA, BHFHDHA

Housing loan payments to disposable income🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

9.4% -0.5pp over 1y

Latest: Q1 2026  |  9.4% vs 10y avg 8.3%

Takeaway: Scheduled mortgage repayments take 9.4% of disposable income (Q1 2026), of which interest 6.0%; borrowers are still paying an extra 2.3% ahead of schedule, and 56% of loans have an offset account.

Why it matters for Australia: The household debt-servicing ratio: the share of income committed to mortgages, the main channel of monetary policy.

Rule: Scheduled repayments vs 10-year average: cooling (restrictive) if >= 1pp above; heating if >= 1pp below; otherwise steady.

Caveat: E13 starts Mar 2009 (short by nature: built from post-GFC lender data; no earlier RBA table on this definition). Offset-account share starts Sep 2019.

Source: RBA table E13: LPHTSPRI, LPHTICRI, LPHTEXRI, HSHTOF

Lending rates vs the cash rate

Business lending rates by firm size (outstanding)🔗 Copy linkINFO

7.47% +57bp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: Small businesses pay 7.47% on outstanding loans vs 5.75% for large firms (Aug 2026): a 172bp size premium, with the cash rate at 4.35% that month.

Why it matters for Australia: Small firms pay well above large ones; that premium is how tight policy reaches the SME and non-bank lending market.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: Break: F7 size-based rates (EFS collection) start Jul 2019 and are short by nature; earlier history uses the older F5 weighted-average variable rates (small business from Dec 1993, large from 1978), a different definition, shown as thin lines and not spliced. Cash rate: F1.1 target from Aug 1990, interbank overnight rate before.

Source: RBA table F7: FLRBFOSBT, FLRBFOMBT, FLRBFOLBT; RBA table F5: FILRSBVWA, FILRLBWAV; RBA table F1.1: FIRMMCRT, FIRMMCRI; RBA table F1: FIRMMCRTD

New lending rates minus cash rate🔗 Copy linkINFO

1.85 pp -5bp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: New variable mortgages are priced 1.85pp over the cash rate (Aug 2026), narrower than the 2.53pp pre-COVID average; new small-business loans 2.88pp.

Why it matters for Australia: Spreads over the cash rate show whether banks are passing on policy fully, or competing margins away.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: Break: F6/F7 new-loan rates (EFS) start Jul 2019 (short by nature). Longer context is the F5 banks' standard variable housing indicator rate minus the cash rate (from 1990), a headline rather than actual-paid rate, so not spliced.

Source: RBA table F6: FLRHOFVA; RBA table F5: FILRHLBVS; RBA table F1.1: FIRMMCRT, FIRMMCRI; RBA table F7: FLRBFNSBT, FLRBFNLBT; RBA table F1: FIRMMCRTD

Money & markets

Broad money and M1 growth (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

6.9% +0.1pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  broad money 6.9%, M1 6.5% y/y

Takeaway: Broad money is growing 6.9% a year and M1 6.5% (Aug 2026).

Why it matters for Australia: Deposits are the other side of bank lending; M1 (transaction balances) swings with rates as savers shift to term deposits.

Rule: Broad money y/y: heating > 9%; cooling < 4%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Full D3 history (broad money from Aug 1976, M1 from 1975). Growth is from levels, not break-adjusted: reclassifications (e.g. 1980s bank/NBFI conversions, 2019 EFS) cause jumps. Dotted line = broad-money average since 1977.

Source: RBA table D3: DMABMS, DMAM1S

Australian 10y minus US 10y bond yield🔗 Copy linkINFO

0.18 pp +0bp over 1y

Latest: Oct 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: AGS 10y 5.40% vs US 10y 5.28%: Australia yields +12bp over Treasuries (07 Oct 2026), vs a 10-year average of +3bp.

Why it matters for Australia: A positive AU-US spread pulls in foreign capital and supports the AUD; it also tells you whether local long rates are being set offshore.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: Spliced: F2 historical table (f02histhist, month-end, Jul 1969-Apr 2013) + current F2 daily from May 2013 taken at month-end; same 10y benchmark definition. US: FRED DGS10 month-end. Dotted line = average since 1969.

Source: RBA table F2: FCMYGBAG10D; RBA historical table F2 (1969-2013): FCMYGBAG10; FRED (St Louis Fed): DGS10

Inflation & wages

Real wage growth (WPI minus CPI, y/y)🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

-0.7 pp -2.0pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  WPI 3.2% minus CPI 3.9%

Takeaway: Wages rose 3.2% against 3.9% inflation over the year to Q2 2026: real wages down 0.7%.

Why it matters for Australia: Real wages decide whether households can grow out of their debt; they fell sharply in 2022-23.

Rule: Heating > +1.5pp; cooling < 0; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Starts Sep 1998: the ABS Wage Price Index begins in 1997 (first y/y 1998), so this is short by nature; CPI (G1) goes back to 1923.

Source: RBA table H4: GWPIYP; RBA table G1: GCPIAGYP

Longer-term inflation expectations🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

2.5% -0.1pp over 1y

Latest: Q3 2026  |  economists 2.5%, 10y break-even 2.4%

Takeaway: Economists expect 2.5% inflation in two years, unions 3.4%, and bond markets price 2.4% over ten years (Q3 2026): inside the 2-3% target band.

Why it matters for Australia: If 2-year and 10-year expectations stay near 2.5%, the RBA can look through one-off price shocks.

Rule: Market economists 2y ahead: heating > 3%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Full G3 history: economists' survey from 1994, union officials from 1997; the 10y break-even series in G3 starts 2015 (short by nature). No splice.

Source: RBA table G3: GMAREXPYY, GUNIEXPYY, GBONYLD

Australian funding & liquidity

Overnight cash market

Interbank cash market volume ($m, daily)🔗 Copy linkINFO

1,267 $m -380.9 over 1y

Latest: 12 Oct 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: About $1.3b a day now trades in the overnight cash market (12 Oct 2026, 20-day average), well below the 2019 average of $3.9b: banks still hold ample reserves, so few need to borrow overnight.

Why it matters for Australia: When the RBA floods banks with reserves they no longer need to borrow overnight from each other, so the cash market shrinks.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: RBA publishes cash market volumes only from 20 May 2013 (F1, short by nature).

Source: RBA F1 Money market (daily): FIRMMCRIV

Cash rate within the RBA corridor (bp vs target)🔗 Copy linkINFO

+0 bp +0bp over 1y

Latest: 12 Oct 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: The cash rate is 4.60% vs a 4.60% target (+0bp, 12 Oct 2026), sitting close to the floor (floor -10bp, ceiling +25bp): the hallmark of an ample-reserves system.

Why it matters for Australia: Where the cash rate sits between the ES deposit rate (floor) and the standing-facility repo rate (ceiling) shows whether reserves are scarce or ample.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: Corridor from A2 administered rates (ES rate and standing-facility overnight repo rate) applied as step functions; daily cash rate spliced from the F1 historical xls (to 2010) and current F1 (2011+).

Source: RBA F1 / F1 historical (daily): FIRMMCRID, FIRMMCRTD; RBA A2 Administered rates: ARBAMPNRPESB, ARBAMPNORR

RBA open market operations

RBA open market repo: outstanding and weekly dealing ($b)🔗 Copy linkINFO

46.3 $b +14.7 over 1y

Latest: 12 Oct 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: Banks have $46.3b of repo outstanding with the RBA (12 Oct 2026); over the last four weeks $28.5b was dealt at around 1 month and $0.0b at longer terms, vs $11.5b at a week or less.

Why it matters for Australia: Banks now get most of their marginal reserves by borrowing from the RBA at its weekly full-allotment repo operations rather than from each other.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: A3 operations data start Nov 2013. Term buckets are grouped by the term of each transaction; outstanding = OMO reverse repo + triparty reverse repo (outright bond purchases excluded).

Source: RBA A3 ES balances and repo agreements: AORROMO, AORROMOTRI; RBA A3 OMO repo transaction details: AFROMOTD, AFROMOVD

RBA repo rates minus cash rate target (bp, monthly avg)🔗 Copy linkINFO

+10 bp +0bp over 1y

Latest: Oct 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: RBA repo at up to 1 week averaged +10bp over the cash rate target in Oct 2026; 8-45 days (incl. 1-month) +10bp (the RBA's full-allotment repo price), versus close to zero before 2020.

Why it matters for Australia: The price of RBA repo relative to the cash rate shows how much banks pay up for reserves; it rose as the RBA moved to a full-allotment system.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: Value-weighted average across dealt repos: fixed-rate deals as rate minus the cash rate target on the deal date; floating-rate deals (the norm since Feb 2024) use the published spread to the cash rate target. Grouped by term bucket.

Source: RBA A3 OMO repo transaction details: AFROMOWAR, AFROMOVD, AFROMOTD; RBA F1 Money market (daily): FIRMMCRTD

Reserves, TFF and standing facility

Exchange Settlement balances ($b)🔗 Copy linkINFO

196 $b -7.6 over 1y

Latest: 07 Oct 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: Banks hold $196b in ES balances (07 Oct 2026), down from the $473b peak (Feb 2023) but far above the roughly $29b of 2019.

Why it matters for Australia: ES balances are banks' reserves at the RBA; their surge after 2020 (bond buying and the TFF) is why the cash market went quiet.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: Weekly A1 from Jul 2013, extended back to Jun 1994 with the RBA's historical A1 summary (same series ID).

Source: RBA A1 Balance sheet (weekly): ARBALESBW; RBA A1 historical summary 1994-2023: ARBALESBW

Term Funding Facility outstanding ($b)🔗 Copy linkINFO

7.7 $b -170.1 over 1y

Latest: 26 Jun 2024  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: The TFF has fully run off: the last $7.7b was outstanding on 26 Jun 2024, down from a $188b peak (Jun 2021), and the RBA has published no balance since.

Why it matters for Australia: The TFF lent banks about $188b of cheap three-year money in 2020-21; its run-off forced banks to replace it with market funding and RBA repo.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: Facility opened Apr 2020; drawdowns closed Jun 2021 and all funding matured by mid-2024 (short by nature).

Source: RBA A3 Term Funding Facility: ATFFOTD

Overnight standing facility repo at the ceiling rate ($m)🔗 Copy linkINFO

0 $m +0.0 over 1y

Latest: 12 Oct 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: Overnight standing-facility borrowing at the ceiling rate was $0m on 12 Oct 2026 and was used on 12 of the last 250 business days, averaging $175m (max $525m) when used: no sign of system-wide stress. Separately, $4.2b of open (intraday-liquidity) repo sits at the ES rate.

Why it matters for Australia: Banks borrowing overnight from the RBA at the penalty (ceiling) rate signals an individual bank could not find cash in the market.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: 'SF repos at margin' = standing-facility repos at the cash rate target plus margin; open repos at the ES rate (for RITS intraday liquidity) are reported separately and noted in the takeaway.

Source: RBA A3 ES balances and repo agreements: AORRLFPR, AORRLFCRT

Bank bill funding spreads

BBSW minus OIS and minus cash rate target (bp)🔗 Copy linkINFO

+17 bp +18bp over 1y

Latest: 12 Oct 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Takeaway: 3m BBSW is +17bp over the cash rate target and 1m -3bp (12 Oct 2026); the last published 3m BBSW-OIS spread was +2bp (Dec 2022) vs a GFC peak of +87bp.

Why it matters for Australia: BBSW over OIS strips out rate expectations to show pure bank credit and liquidity stress (GFC, 2020); after OIS data ends the gap to the cash rate target also reflects expected rate moves.

Rule: Context only.

Caveat: 5-day averages. RBA OIS (F1) runs Jul 2001 to 1 Dec 2022 only; after that only the BBSW minus cash rate target proxy is available (it embeds expected cash-rate changes). Bank bill rates spliced from F1 historical xls.

Source: RBA F1 / F1 historical (daily): FIRMMBAB30D, FIRMMBAB90D, FIRMMOIS1D, FIRMMOIS3D, FIRMMCRTD

China

Credit & property

Credit impulse (BIS, % of GDP)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

0.9 % GDP +1.6pp over 1y

Latest: Q1 2026  |  total non-fin +0.9pp; private -1.1pp of GDP

Why it matters for Australia: China's credit impulse has historically led its steel and construction demand, i.e. Australian iron ore volumes and prices, by 6-12 months.

Rule: 4-quarter change in 4-quarter credit flow as % of GDP: heating > +1pp; cooling < -1pp; otherwise steady. Rule applied to total non-financial sector (incl. government).

Caveat: Derived: GDP implied from BIS credit level / credit-to-GDP ratio. Proxy for TSF-based impulse (PBoC TSF not used). BIS data lag ~2 quarters.

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_TC): Q.CN.C+P.A.M.XDC+770.A

Property: starts, sales & investment (YTD y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTRESS

-24.8% -2.2pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  starts -24.8%, sales -13.0%, investment -19.9% YTD y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Chinese housing construction is the single biggest end-use of Australian iron ore.

Rule: New starts (floor space, YTD y/y): stress < -15%; cooling -15% to 0; heating > +5%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Year-to-date cumulative growth rates; only releases since ~Aug-2025 parse fully.

Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): Investment in Real Estate Development releases

70-city new home prices (avg y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTRESS

-3.3% +0.4pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  -3.3% y/y; -0.17% m/m; 48 of 70 cities falling m/m

Why it matters for Australia: Falling prices erode household wealth and developer collateral, the core of China's credit drag.

Rule: Stress < -3%; cooling -3% to 0; steady 0 to +3%; heating > +3%.

Caveat: Simple average across cities of NBS Table I indices (computed here; NBS does not publish a national average).

Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): 70 city table I (new commercial residential)

Activity

NBS manufacturing PMI🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

50.1 -0.2 over 3m

Latest: Sep 2026  |  50.1

Why it matters for Australia: Factory momentum = steel, copper and energy demand from Australia's largest customer.

Rule: Heating >= 50.5; cooling < 49.5; otherwise steady (50 = no change).

Caveat: Parsed from NBS English releases; history limited to ~2 years of press releases. Caixin/S&P PMI is proprietary (not used).

Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): Manufacturing PMI, new orders, non-manufacturing PMI

NBS non-manufacturing PMI🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

50.2 +0.0 over 3m

Latest: Sep 2026  |  50.2

Why it matters for Australia: Services/construction activity: the domestic-demand side of China's rebalancing.

Rule: Heating >= 50.5; cooling < 49.5; otherwise steady (50 = no change).

Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): Non-manufacturing business activity index

Industrial production & retail sales (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

5.2% +0.7pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  IP +5.2%, retail sales +0.4% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Supply (industry) vs demand (consumers): China's growth mix and its pull on Australian resources.

Rule: Industrial production y/y: heating > 6%; cooling < 4%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Jan/Feb combined by NBS (no January print).

Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): Industrial production, retail sales releases

Exports (US$, 3-mo y/y)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

25.2% +13.3pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  3-mo exports +25.2% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Export strength props up Chinese industry (and steel demand) while property is weak.

Rule: 3-month sum of USD exports, y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < 0%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Verified vs China GAC: Aug-2026 exports US$401.44bn, +25.0% y/y in USD terms (+18.6% in CNY).

Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_IMTS@DF_IMTS): CHN.W.X.C.M.USD_EXC.N.N

Prices

CPI (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

0.8% -0.4pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  +0.8% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Low Chinese inflation exports disinflation (cheap goods) to Australia but signals weak domestic demand.

Rule: Cooling if < 0% (deflation); heating if > 2.5%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: BIS series with NBS release values where more recent.

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_LONG_CPI): M.CN.771; China NBS English press releases (scraped): CPI release

Producer prices (y/y)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

3.8% -0.1pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  +3.8% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: PPI tracks industrial pricing power; it moves with iron ore and coal prices.

Rule: Heating > +2%; cooling < -1%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Only releases from Aug-2025 parse cleanly from NBS text (short history).

Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): PPI release

Markets

China 10y government bond yield🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

1.69% -15bp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  1.69% (-15bp y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Record-low CGB yields signal deflationary pressure and weak credit demand.

Rule: 12-month change: cooling if <= -0.4pp; heating if >= +0.4pp; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Monthly average via OECD (lags ~1-2 months).

Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_STES@DF_FINMARK): CHN.M.IRLT.PA.....

USD/CNY🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

6.6959 CNY -1.1% over 3m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  6.6959 (-1.1% 3m)

Why it matters for Australia: A weaker yuan exports deflation and usually coincides with softer commodity demand.

Rule: 3-month change: stress if CNY weakens > 3%; heating if CNY strengthens > 3%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Cross rate derived from RBA 4pm AEST AUD rates.

Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRCR / FXRUSD (cross)

Shanghai Composite & Hang Seng China Enterprises🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

8,169 -1.8% over 3m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  -14.9% vs 52-week high

Why it matters for Australia: Chinese equity stress tends to spill into the AUD and Australian miners.

Rule: HSCEI: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.

Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): 000001.SS, ^HSCE

Japan

Rates & yen

BoJ policy rate🔗 Copy linkHEATING

1.25% +0.8pp over 1y

Latest: 06 Oct 2026  |  1.25% (+0.75pp y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Each BoJ hike raises the cost of yen funding, the world's cheapest carry-trade leg.

Rule: 12-month change: heating (tightening) if >= +0.25pp; cooling (easing) if <= -0.25pp; otherwise steady.

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_CBPOL): D.JP

JGB 2y & 10y yields🔗 Copy linkHEATING

3.027% +27bp over 3m

Latest: 09 Oct 2026  |  10y 3.027% (+27bp 3m); 2y 1.911%

Why it matters for Australia: Higher JGB yields pull Japanese savings home, removing a big buyer of Australian and global bonds.

Rule: 10y, 3-month change: heating if >= +20bp; cooling if <= -20bp; otherwise steady.

Source: Japan MOF JGB interest rates: jgbcme_all.csv + jgbcme.csv

JGB 30y yield🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

4.085% +15bp over 3m

Latest: 09 Oct 2026  |  4.085% (+6bp 1m, +15bp 3m)

Why it matters for Australia: Super-long JGBs are where fiscal/term-premium stress shows; spikes have hit global duration.

Rule: Stress if 1-month change >= +40bp; heating if 3-month change >= +25bp; cooling if 3-month change <= -25bp; otherwise steady.

Source: Japan MOF JGB interest rates: jgbcme_all.csv + jgbcme.csv

USD/JPY🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

158.27 JPY +2.0% over 1m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  158.27 (+2.0% 1m, -2.4% 3m)

Why it matters for Australia: A sharp yen rally signals carry-trade unwinding, which has historically hit AUD and risk assets together.

Rule: Stress if yen strengthens >= 5% in 1 month (USD/JPY falls >= 5%); heating if yen weakens >= 5% over 3 months (carry building); otherwise steady.

Caveat: Cross rate derived from RBA 4pm AEST AUD rates.

Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRJY / FXRUSD (cross)

AUD/JPY🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

110.17 JPY -0.5% over 1m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  110.17 (-0.5% 1m, -2.9% 3m)

Why it matters for Australia: AUD/JPY is the purest carry-trade gauge for Australia: high-yielder vs funder.

Rule: Stress if 1-month change <= -5%; heating if 3-month change >= +5%; otherwise steady.

Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRJY

Economy & flows

Japan CPI (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

1.9% +0.6pp over 3m

Latest: Jul 2026  |  1.9% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Sustained inflation is what lets the BoJ keep hiking (and JGB yields keep rising).

Rule: Heating > 2.5%; cooling < 1.5%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: BIS headline CPI (OECD/FRED Japan CPI series are stale); wages/shunto data need e-Stat API key (not used).

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_LONG_CPI): M.JP.771

Japanese net buying of foreign bonds (13-wk sum, ¥tn)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

-1.8 ¥tn latest week -0.35tn

Latest: 03 Oct 2026  |  -1.8tn over 13 wks (22th pct)

Why it matters for Australia: Japanese investors are major holders of Australian and US bonds; repatriation lifts global yields.

Rule: Percentile of trailing 10 years: stress <= 10th (heavy repatriation); heating >= 90th (heavy foreign buying); otherwise steady.

Caveat: Weekly designated-investor reports (MOF); sum of 13 weeks; units ¥ trillion (source 100m yen).

Source: Japan MOF International Transactions in Securities (weekly): week.csv

Foreign net buying of Japanese equities & bonds (13-wk, ¥tn)🔗 Copy linkSTRESS

-3.2 ¥tn latest week equities +2.19tn

Latest: 03 Oct 2026  |  equities -3.2tn, long-term debt +0.8tn over 13 wks (9th pct)

Why it matters for Australia: Foreign flows into Japan are a read on global risk appetite towards Asia.

Rule: Equities, percentile of trailing 10 years: stress <= 10th; heating >= 90th; otherwise steady.

Source: Japan MOF International Transactions in Securities (weekly): week.csv

Nikkei 225🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

67,702 +1.3% over 3m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  -6.4% vs 52-week high

Why it matters for Australia: Japanese equity drawdowns often coincide with yen-carry unwinds.

Rule: Nikkei 225: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.

Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): ^N225

Japan exports (US$, 3-mo y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

9.8% +4.6pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  3-mo exports +9.8% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Japanese exports track the Asian manufacturing cycle that Australian LNG and coal feed.

Rule: 3-month sum of USD exports, y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < 0%; otherwise steady.

Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_IMTS@DF_IMTS): JPN.W.X.C.M.USD_EXC.N.N

US & global credit

US rates, dollar & funding

Fed funds & real fed funds🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

FF 3.88%, real +0.62pp -0.9pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  effective 3.88% (08 Oct); real +0.62pp (Aug 2026); +24bp over 6m

Why it matters for Australia: The Fed sets the global price of money; a high real Fed funds rate is the anchor for real rates everywhere, including Australia.

Rule: Real fed funds (monthly avg effective rate minus core PCE y/y): cooling (restrictive) if > 1.5pp; heating (stimulatory) if < 0; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Real rate observed only in months where core PCE is published (no interpolation).

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DFF; FRED (St Louis Fed): PCEPILFE

US Treasury 2y & 10y🔗 Copy linkHEATING

5.22% +66bp over 3m

Latest: 08 Oct 2026  |  10y 5.22% (+66bp 3m); 2y 4.75%

Why it matters for Australia: The 10y Treasury anchors global mortgage and corporate funding costs, including Australia's 10y.

Rule: 10y, 3-month change: heating (tightening) if >= +40bp; cooling if <= -40bp; otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DGS10, DGS2

US 2s10s curve (10y minus 2y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

+0.44 pp +9bp over 3m

Latest: 09 Oct 2026  |  +44bp

Why it matters for Australia: Curve shape signals whether markets see the Fed as too tight (inverted) or expect growth/inflation and term premium (steep).

Rule: Cooling if inverted (< 0); heating if > 1.25pp (steep); otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): T10Y2Y

US 10y real yield (TIPS) & breakeven🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

2.87% +55bp over 3m

Latest: 08 Oct 2026  |  real 2.87%, breakeven 2.33%

Why it matters for Australia: The global real rate: the hurdle every leveraged asset must clear, from US private credit to Australian property.

Rule: Cooling (restrictive) if > 2%; heating if < 1%; otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DFII10, T10YIE

Broad trade-weighted US dollar🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

121.4 +0.6% over 3m

Latest: 02 Oct 2026  |  +0.6% 3m, +0.8% 12m

Why it matters for Australia: A rising dollar tightens financial conditions for Asian USD borrowers and pressures the AUD.

Rule: 3-month change: stress if >= +3% (dollar squeeze); heating (easy) if <= -3%; otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DTWEXBGS

SOFR minus IORB (repo funding pressure, bp)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

-3 bp +7bp over 3m

Latest: 08 Oct 2026  |  latest -3bp, 5-day avg -1.6bp; ON RRP US$0bn

Why it matters for Australia: Repo stress (SOFR above interest on reserves) means dollar liquidity is getting scarce, which hits offshore USD borrowers and carry trades first.

Rule: 5-day average: stress if > +5bp (repo trading above IORB = reserve scarcity); cooling if > 0bp; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Month/quarter-end spikes are normal; rule uses a 5-day average.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): SOFR, IORB, RRPONTSYD

US & global credit conditions

US high-yield & IG corporate spreads (OAS)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

3.15% +46bp over 3m

Latest: 08 Oct 2026  |  HY 3.15%, IG 0.82% (HY at 62th pct of available history)

Why it matters for Australia: The bellwether of the global credit cycle; private credit marks lag but follow it.

Rule: HY OAS: stress > 6%; cooling 4.5-6%; heating < 3.5% (very easy credit); otherwise steady.

Caveat: ICE BofA indices via FRED (FRED serves a rolling window of history only).

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): BAMLH0A0HYM2, BAMLC0A0CM

Asia USD corporate & EM high-yield spreads🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

0.91% +10bp over 3m

Latest: 08 Oct 2026  |  Asia corp OAS at 34th percentile of trailing 10 years

Why it matters for Australia: What Asian borrowers pay for dollar credit; widening hits Chinese developers and regional banks first.

Rule: Percentile of trailing 10 years: stress >= 90th; cooling 70-90th (credit tightening); heating <= 20th (very tight spreads = easy credit); otherwise steady. Applied to Asia corporate OAS.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): BAMLEMRACRPIASIAOAS, BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS

BDC index ETF (BIZD): listed US private-credit proxy🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

12.10 US$ -4.5% over 3m

Latest: 12 Oct 2026  |  -19.6% vs 52-week high

Why it matters for Australia: Listed BDCs are the daily-priced window into US direct lending; sell-offs here have led stress in Australian private-credit trusts.

Rule: BIZD price: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Price only (excludes ~10%+ distribution yield); VanEck BDC Income ETF tracks MarketVector US Business Development Companies index.

Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): BIZD

Chicago Fed NFCI & St Louis stress index🔗 Copy linkHEATING

-0.49 +0.0 over 3m

Latest: 02 Oct 2026  |  NFCI -0.49; STLFSI -0.47

Why it matters for Australia: Broad US financial conditions; tightening here tends to transmit to Asian funding markets.

Rule: NFCI: stress > 0 (tighter than average); heating < -0.3 (loose); otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): NFCI, STLFSI4

VIX🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

14.8 -1.0 over 1m

Latest: 09 Oct 2026  |  14.8

Why it matters for Australia: Volatility shocks force deleveraging across carry trades and risk assets, including the AUD.

Rule: Stress > 30; cooling 20-30; heating < 13; otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): VIXCLS

US banks tightening C&I lending standards (net %)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

+0.0 net % -9.5 over 1y

Latest: Q3 2026  |  +0.0 net % tightening

Why it matters for Australia: Bank credit supply leads defaults by ~a year; tightening pushes borrowers to private credit.

Rule: Stress > 20; cooling 0-20; heating < -10; otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DRTSCILM

US bank C&I loans (y/y)🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

10.0% +13.1pp over 1y

Latest: Sep 2026  |  y/y 10.0%, 3-mo annualised 8.8% (-1.2pp vs y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Bank business lending vs private credit: which channel is funding US corporates.

Rule: Heating if y/y > 10% or 3-mo annualised growth exceeds y/y by > 1pp (accelerating); cooling if 3-mo annualised is > 1pp below y/y (decelerating); otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): BUSLOANS

US economy

US core PCE & CPI inflation (y/y)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

3.0% -0.2pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  core PCE 3.0%, CPI 3.7%

Why it matters for Australia: US inflation decides how far the Fed can cut (or must hike), and so the global floor under real rates.

Rule: Core PCE: heating > 3%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): PCEPILFE, CPIAUCSL

US unemployment rate & Sahm rule🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

4.2% -0.2pp over 1y

Latest: Sep 2026  |  3-mo avg 4.13%: +0.00pp vs prior-12m low, -0.10pp y/y; FRED SAHMREALTIME 0.00

Why it matters for Australia: A rising US jobless rate is the classic trigger for a global easing cycle and risk-off.

Rule: Stress if 3-mo avg >= 0.5pp above its low of the prior 12 months (Sahm-style); else cooling if 3-mo avg up >= 0.2pp y/y; heating if down >= 0.2pp y/y; otherwise steady. The Fed's official real-time Sahm indicator (SAHMREALTIME, recession signal >= 0.50) is shown for reference.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): UNRATE, SAHMREALTIME

US initial jobless claims (4-wk avg, '000)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

198 '000 -15.4% over 1y

Latest: 03 Oct 2026  |  198k (-15.4% y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Weekly, real-time read on US layoffs.

Rule: 4-wk average y/y: stress >= +20%; cooling >= +10%; heating <= -10%; otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): ICSA

Fed balance sheet (US$tn)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

6.75 US$tn +2.4% over 1y

Latest: 07 Oct 2026  |  US$6.75tn (+2.4% y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: QT drains dollar liquidity that ultimately funds global carry and credit.

Rule: y/y: cooling (QT) if < -5%; heating (QE) if > +5%; otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): WALCL

Brent crude (US$/bbl)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

125.4 US$ +87.0% over 1y

Latest: 06 Oct 2026  |  US$125.4 (+87.0% y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Oil drives Australian fuel inflation and Asia's import bill (most of Asia is a net oil importer); LNG contracts are oil-linked.

Rule: y/y: heating > +20%; cooling < -20%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: EIA Brent spot (physical, dated) via FRED, lags a few days. In Oct-2026 physical Dated Brent (~US$129 on 7 Oct) traded ~US$28 above ICE front-month futures (~US$100) because of Hormuz disruption, so headline futures quotes look much lower.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DCOILBRENTEU

Global credit cycle (BIS)

USD credit to non-banks outside the US (y/y)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

7.3% +2.1pp over 1y

Latest: Q1 2026  |  +7.3% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: The offshore dollar credit cycle: Asian corporates and sovereigns are among the biggest users.

Rule: Heating > 8%; cooling < 0%; otherwise steady.

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_GLI): Q.USD.3P.N.A.I.B.771

Credit-to-GDP gaps (BIS, pp)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

-9.7 pp +3.8pp over 1y

Latest: Q1 2026  |  Japan +5.7; China -5.1; Australia -9.7; US -11.3; Korea -15.1; Euro area -17.1 (highest: Japan)

Why it matters for Australia: Credit far above trend has preceded most banking crises; a negative gap means deleveraging.

Rule: Per economy: stress > +10pp; heating +2 to +10; steady -2 to +2; cooling < -2. Status shown is for the highest gap.

Caveat: Latest value field shows Australia; the gap is a one-sided HP-filter trend and is unreliable for China/Japan structural shifts.

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_CREDIT_GAP): Q.AU+CN+JP+US+KR+XM.P.A.C

Private-sector debt service ratios (BIS, % of income)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

20.3% -0.3pp over 1y

Latest: Q1 2026  |  AU 20.3% vs 10y avg 19.5%; China 19.1, Japan 15.5, US 13.8, Korea 19.3

Why it matters for Australia: Direct test of the thesis: the share of income going to interest and principal.

Rule: Australia vs its own 10-year average: stress >= +2pp; cooling (restrictive) >= +1pp; heating <= -1pp; otherwise steady.

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_DSR): Q.AU+CN+JP+US+KR.P

Private credit impulse (BIS, % of GDP)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

0.2 % GDP -2.2 over 1y

Latest: Q1 2026  |  Australia +0.2, US +2.8, Japan +7.0, Korea +0.2

Why it matters for Australia: A positive impulse adds to demand growth; Australia's is driven by housing and business credit.

Rule: 4-quarter change in 4-quarter credit flow as % of GDP: heating > +1pp; cooling < -1pp; otherwise steady. Applied to Australia.

Caveat: Derived from BIS total credit to private non-financial sector (all lenders, market value).

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_TC): Q.AU+US+JP+KR.P.A.M.XDC+770.A

Real residential property prices (BIS, y/y)🔗 Copy linkINFO

4.2% +2.2pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Why it matters for Australia: Property is the main collateral for credit across the region.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: CPI-deflated; coverage differs by country (China = 70-city new homes).

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_SPP): Q.AU+CN+JP+US+KR.R.771

Funding & liquidity

Repo & Fed backstops

Repo vs IORB: SOFR, TGCR and SOFR 99th percentile (bp)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

-3 bp +7bp over 3m

Latest: 08 Oct 2026  |  SOFR 3.87%, TGCR 3.85%, BGCR 3.85%; SOFR-IORB 5d -1.6bp, p99 5d +6.4bp

Why it matters for Australia: Repo trading at or above interest on reserves means dealers are balance-sheet constrained and dollar liquidity is getting scarce; the 99th percentile shows the tail of the market paying up first.

Rule: 5-day avg SOFR-IORB: stress if > +5bp; heating if > 0bp or SOFR 99th pctile 5-day avg > +10bp; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Month/quarter-end spikes are normal (rule uses 5-day averages). BGCR and TGCR differ by ~0-1bp; TGCR shown. IORB starts Jul-2021.

Source: NY Fed Markets API (SOFR, BGCR, TGCR): rate, 1st/99th percentile, volume; FRED (St Louis Fed): IORB

SOFR and TGCR volume (US$bn/day)🔗 Copy linkINFO

2,963 US$bn +1.3% over 1y

Latest: 08 Oct 2026  |  SOFR volume US$2,963bn (2,968bn 60-day avg)

Why it matters for Australia: Rising repo volume with flat rates = ample collateral financing; rising rates with flat or falling volume would point to balance-sheet scarcity.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Source: NY Fed Markets API (SOFR, TGCR): volumeInBillions

Primary dealer Treasury fails (deliver + receive, ex-TIPS, US$bn/week)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

260.0 US$bn -18.8% over 1y

Latest: 30 Sep 2026  |  fails to deliver US$130.7bn + receive US$129.3bn (wk 30 Sep); 4-wk avg 1.7x the 3-yr median

Why it matters for Australia: Settlement fails jump when Treasuries are hard to borrow (collateral scarcity, e.g. Mar-2020); persistent spikes can impair repo intermediation and dollar funding.

Rule: 4-week average vs trailing 3-year median: stress if > 2x; heating if > 1.3x; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Weekly cumulative fails reported by primary dealers (Wednesday as-of dates); this API series starts Apr-2013 (older history uses a different series layout).

Source: NY Fed Markets API (Primary dealer statistics): PDFTD-USTET, PDFTR-USTET (US$m, weekly, cumulative for the week)

Fed overnight repo operations incl. Standing Repo Facility (US$bn/day)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

0.0 US$bn +0.0 over 3m

Latest: 09 Oct 2026  |  latest US$0.0bn; 20-day max US$1.2bn (30 Sep); H.4.1 repo (Wed) US$0.0bn

Why it matters for Australia: Use of the Fed's repo backstop shows dealers cannot get private repo at a reasonable price, an early sign of funding strain that spills over to offshore dollar borrowers.

Rule: Max over last 20 business days: stress if >= US$50bn; heating if >= US$5bn; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Quarter-end takeup (e.g. 30 Sep) is common and partly window-dressing; the rule looks at the 20-day max, so a quarter-end print alone can trigger 'heating'.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): RPONTSYD, WORAL

Fed central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (US$bn)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

0.21 US$bn +0.2 over 1y

Latest: 07 Oct 2026  |  US$207m outstanding (peaks: US$583bn Dec-2008, US$449bn May-2020)

Why it matters for Australia: Swap-line drawings are the clearest sign of an offshore dollar shortage: foreign central banks borrow US dollars from the Fed to lend on to their banks.

Rule: Latest: stress if >= US$50bn; heating if >= US$5bn; otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): SWPT

Discount window: primary & secondary credit (US$bn)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

9.96 US$bn +2.8 over 1y

Latest: 07 Oct 2026  |  primary US$9.96bn (3-yr median 4.69bn); secondary US$0m

Why it matters for Australia: Banks only borrow at the discount window when market funding fails or stigma is outweighed; spikes mark bank funding stress (2008, 2020, Mar-2023).

Rule: Primary credit: stress if >= US$25bn; heating if >= 2x its 3-year median; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Wednesday levels. Seasonal credit (WLCFLSECL) excluded.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): WLCFLPCL, WLCFLSCL

Primary Dealer Credit Facility loans (US$bn, discontinued series)🔗 Copy linkINFO

0.0 US$bn

Latest: 13 Apr 2022  |  no active facility: 2008 series ended Aug-2019, 2020 facility ended Apr 2022; peak US$147bn (Oct 2008)

Why it matters for Australia: The PDCF is the Fed lending directly to securities dealers; it was only used in 2008 and 2020 and is shown for history.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Spliced from the 2008-era series and the 2020-22 facility series; both discontinued, so this card is history only.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): H0RESPPALDDNWW, H41RESPPALDHNWW

Curve & forward signals

Near-term forward spread: 3m rate 18m ahead minus 3m bill (bp)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

+97 bp +66bp over 3m

Latest: 02 Oct 2026  |  +97bp (02 Oct); 18m-ahead 3m forward 5.16%

Why it matters for Australia: The Fed's own preferred curve recession signal (Engstrom-Sharpe): a negative spread means markets price rate cuts within 18 months, i.e. expected weakness.

Rule: Latest 5-day avg: cooling if < 0bp (cuts priced = recession signal); heating if > +100bp; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Computed here: forward = Svensson zero curve 1.5y-1.75y (converted to quarterly compounding) minus 3m CMT bill (DGS3MO). The Fed's published series uses its own bill-curve fit, so levels differ by a few bp. GSW lags ~1 week.

Source: Federal Reserve GSW zero-coupon curve (feds200628): BETA0-3, TAU1-2 -> Svensson zero yields at 1.5y and 1.75y; FRED (St Louis Fed): DGS3MO

US Treasury curve: 10y-3m and 10y-2y (pp)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

+0.99 pp +28bp over 3m

Latest: 09 Oct 2026  |  10y-3m +0.99pp, 10y-2y +0.44pp (09 Oct)

Why it matters for Australia: Curve inversion and the later bull steepening have preceded US recessions; a steep curve with rising long yields can instead reflect term or policy-risk premia.

Rule: 10y-3m: cooling if < 0 (inverted); otherwise steady.

Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): T10Y3M, T10Y2Y

Copper/gold ratio (x1000) vs US 10y yield🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

1.60 ratio +30.0% over 1y

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  1.60 (copper US$6.76/lb, gold US$4,216/oz); +3.1% over 3m

Why it matters for Australia: Copper (industrial demand) relative to gold (safety, liquidity) tends to track long-term yields; divergence tests whether higher yields reflect growth or other forces.

Rule: 3-month change: cooling if <= -10%; heating if >= +10%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Front-month COMEX futures (US$/lb over US$/oz). Copper was supply-constrained in 2026, which lifts the ratio without implying stronger growth.

Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): HG=F; Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): GC=F; FRED (St Louis Fed): DGS10

Asia region

Trade & tech cycle

Korea exports (US$, 3-mo y/y)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

67.5% +17.1pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  3-mo exports +67.5% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Korea is the canary for Asian trade and the semiconductor cycle.

Rule: 3-month sum of USD exports, y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < 0%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Verified vs MOTIR: Aug-2026 US$98.25bn, +68.7% y/y (semiconductors +209%). Sep-2026 (US$120.9bn, +83.5%) not yet in OECD feed. Customs 10/20-day data not available via free API.

Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_IMTS@DF_IMTS): KOR.W.X.C.M.USD_EXC.N.N

Asia-5 exports (US$, 3-mo y/y)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

27.1% +12.3pp over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  3-mo exports +27.1% y/y

Why it matters for Australia: Regional export momentum = demand for Australian energy, metals and services.

Rule: 3-month sum of USD exports, y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < 0%; otherwise steady. Aggregate of China, Japan, Korea, India, Indonesia (months where all five report).

Caveat: Taiwan and Vietnam are not in OECD IMTS (Taiwan customs has no free bulk API); aggregate stops at the latest month all five report.

Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_IMTS@DF_IMTS): CHN+JPN+KOR+IND+IDN.W.X.C.M.USD_EXC.N.N

TAIEX & KOSPI (semiconductor cycle proxy)🔗 Copy linkHEATING

48,341 +79.6% over 1y

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  TAIEX +80% 12m (-3.0% vs 52w high); KOSPI +67% 12m

Why it matters for Australia: Taiwan/Korea equities are dominated by chipmakers: the AI/semis cycle drives Asian capex and trade.

Rule: TAIEX: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; heating if 12-month return > +25%; cooling if < -10%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Proxy for Taiwan exports/semis billings (no free keyless source found). Verified: TAIEX record close 49,822.55 on 7 Oct 2026, about +70-72% YTD; KOSPI about +60-65% YTD.

Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): ^TWII, ^KS11

OECD business confidence (PMI substitute)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

99.81 +0.0 over 3m

Latest: Aug 2026  |  CN/JP/KR avg 99.81; China 98.4 (Aug), Japan 101.7 (Sep), Korea 99.4 (Sep), Australia 99.9 (Aug), US 100.3 (Sep), Indonesia 99.0 (Jun)

Why it matters for Australia: Free proxy for regional PMIs: manufacturing confidence across Australia's main customers.

Rule: Average of China, Japan, Korea (months all report): heating > 100.5; cooling < 99.5; otherwise steady (100 = long-run average).

Caveat: S&P Global / Caixin PMIs are proprietary. OECD BCI is amplitude-adjusted (100 = long-term average). India's series ends Feb-2026 (excluded).

Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_STES@DF_CLI): CHN+JPN+KOR+IDN+AUS+USA.M.BCICP...AA...H

FX, rates & prices

Asian FX basket vs USD (8 currencies, equal weight)🔗 Copy linkSTEADY

95.6 +1.3% over 3m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  +1.3% 3m; worst 3m: KRW +10.9%, TWD -0.1%, INR +0.6%, IDR +1.3%, SGD +1.1%, THB -0.6%, MYR -0.1%, PHP -2.0%

Why it matters for Australia: Asian currency weakness signals dollar funding stress and capital outflow in the region.

Rule: 3-month change: stress if Asian FX weakens >= 3%; heating if it strengthens >= 3%; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Built from RBA AUD cross rates (KRW, TWD, INR, IDR, SGD, THB, MYR, PHP); excludes CNY and JPY (own sections).

Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRSKW, FXRNTD, FXRIRE, FXRIR, FXRSD, FXRTB, FXRMR, FXRPHP (crossed with FXRUSD)

Policy rates: Korea, India, Indonesia, China + AU, JP, US🔗 Copy linkHEATING

3.00% +50bp over 6m

Latest: 28 Aug 2026  |  6m: cut none; hiked KR, ID, JP, AU, US; KR 3.00, IN 5.25, ID 5.75, CN 3.00, JP 1.25, AU 4.60, US 3.88

Why it matters for Australia: Regional easing vs tightening shows whether Asia is fighting slowdown or inflation/currency pressure.

Rule: Count of the 7 central banks that moved >= 10bp over 6 months: cooling (easing cycle) if cuts exceed hikes by >= 3; heating if hikes exceed cuts by >= 3; otherwise steady.

Caveat: Latest value field shows Korea. BIS series except Australia (RBA F1 cash rate target, fresher than BIS). China as defined by BIS; US = midpoint of target range.

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_CBPOL): D.KR+IN+ID+CN+JP+US; RBA table F1: FIRMMCRTD

CPI inflation across Asia (y/y)🔗 Copy linkINFO

4.4% +1.0pp over 3m

Latest: Jul 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Why it matters for Australia: Inflation differentials drive where regional rates (and currencies) head.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Latest value field shows India.

Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_LONG_CPI): M.KR+IN+ID+CN+JP.771

10y government bond yields (monthly avg)🔗 Copy linkINFO

4.45% +160bp over 1y

Latest: Sep 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Why it matters for Australia: Australia's 10y now sits above most of Asia: relative yields drive regional demand for AUD bonds.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Latest value field shows Korea. Indonesia not available in OECD feed.

Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_STES@DF_FINMARK): CHN+IND+IDN+JPN+KOR+AUS.M.IRLT.PA.....

Hang Seng Index🔗 Copy linkCOOLING

24,295 -2.9% over 3m

Latest: 13 Oct 2026  |  -13.1% vs 52-week high

Why it matters for Australia: Hong Kong is the offshore market for Chinese risk; its drawdowns mark regional risk-off.

Rule: Hang Seng: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.

Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): ^HSI

Geopolitics watch

Quantitative proxies (context only)

Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara-Iacoviello, global)🔗 Copy linkINFO

146 +17.8% over 1y

Latest: Sep 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Why it matters for Australia: Spikes in geopolitical risk tend to lift oil and gold and weigh on the AUD and Asian risk assets.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Newspaper-text index; levels are relative to the 1985-2019 average (=100). No traffic light by design.

Source: Caldara & Iacoviello GPR index: GPR (monthly)

Country geopolitical risk shares (3-mo avg)🔗 Copy linkINFO

China 1.12, Taiwan 0.19, Japan 0.28, Korea 0.33, Australia 0.14 +0.2 over 1y

Latest: Sep 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Why it matters for Australia: Shows which Asian flashpoints dominate the risk news flow that markets trade on.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Share of newspaper articles mentioning geopolitical risk and the country; latest value field shows China.

Source: Caldara & Iacoviello GPR index: GPRC_CHN, GPRC_TWN, GPRC_JPN, GPRC_KOR, GPRC_AUS

Economic Policy Uncertainty (3-mo avg)🔗 Copy linkINFO

Global 282, US 178, China 239, Japan 97, Korea 395, Australia 244 -33.5% over 1y

Latest: Jul 2026  |  no traffic-light rule (context only)

Why it matters for Australia: Policy uncertainty (tariffs, fiscal, elections) delays investment and hiring across the region.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Latest value field shows Global (GDP-weighted, current prices). Country indices end on different months (Global Jul 2026, US Sep 2026, China Jul 2026, Japan Sep 2026, Korea Jul 2026, Australia Jul 2026). FRED's China/Japan EPU copies are stale and not used.

Source: Baker, Bloom & Davis EPU (policyuncertainty.com): All_Country_Data.xlsx: GEPU_current, US, China, Japan, Korea, Australia; Japan_Policy_Uncertainty_Data.xlsx; FRED (St Louis Fed): USEPUINDXM

Long-term trends

Bond yields and policy rates

US 10-year, front-end and policy rates since 1857🔗 Copy linkINFO

10y 5.22%, 2y 4.75%, FF 3.88% +1.1pp over 1y

Latest: 08 Oct 2026  |  10y 5.22% (daily); above 76% of monthly readings since 1871

Why it matters for Australia: The US 10-year is the world's benchmark discount rate; long-run context shows whether today's level is unusual or a return to pre-2008 norms, which matters for every leveraged Australian asset priced off global yields.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Splices (dotted lines): 10y = Shiller long rate (Homer & Sylla-based; pre-1953 values are annual yields interpolated to monthly, not a constant 10-year maturity) to Mar-1953, then GS10. 3-month = NY commercial paper (NBER) to 1933, then T-bill; commercial paper carries a credit premium (~+0.6pp vs bills in the overlap), so pre-1934 front-end and spread levels are not like-for-like. Policy = FRBNY discount rate to Jun-1954, then fed funds. Chart is monthly; headline uses latest daily values.

Source: Robert Shiller, ie_data.xls (shillerdata.com): Long Interest Rate GS10 (col G), CPI (col E); FRED (St Louis Fed): GS10, DGS10; FRED (St Louis Fed): TB3MS; FRED (St Louis Fed): GS2, DGS2; FRED (St Louis Fed): FEDFUNDS, DFF; FRED (St Louis Fed): M13002US35620M156NNBR; FRED (St Louis Fed): M13009USM156NNBR; FRED (St Louis Fed): USREC

Australian 10-year, front-end and cash rates since 1870🔗 Copy linkINFO

10y 5.40%, 3y 4.93%, cash 4.60% +1.0pp over 1y

Latest: 07 Oct 2026  |  10y 5.40% (daily); above 71% of annual averages since 1870

Why it matters for Australia: Australian long rates track US yields plus a premium; the long history shows where today's 10y sits against the high-inflation 1970s-80s and the near-zero 2010s.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Splices (dotted lines): 10y = JST annual long-term government bond yield 1870-1968 (not a constant 10-year maturity), then RBA monthly 10-year (F2 historical to Apr-2013, F2.1 from May-2013). Front end = JST annual short-term rate to 1968, then 90-day bank bills (different instruments; see README splice table). Recession shading: 1974-75 = Apr 1974-Dec 1975; 1982-83 = Jan 1982-Jun 1983; 1990-91 = Jul 1990-Jun 1991; 2020 = Jan 2020-Jun 2020 (first to last negative quarter of real GDP within each named period; Australia has no official recession dating).

Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; RBA historical table f02histhist: FCMYGBAG10, FCMYGBAG3; RBA table F2.1: FCMYGBAG10, FCMYGBAG3; RBA table F2: FCMYGBAG10D, FCMYGBAG3D; RBA table F1.1: FIRMMBAB90, FIRMMCRI, FIRMMCRT; RBA table F1: FIRMMCRTD; RBA table H1: GGDPCVGDP (recession shading)

Output (GDP)

US real GDP (log level) and real & nominal growth since 1870🔗 Copy linkINFO

real +2.2% y/y, nominal +6.3% -0.2pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  real +2.2% y/y, nominal +6.3% y/y (2026 Q2)

Why it matters for Australia: US nominal growth sets the 'natural' level for long yields and the income that services US debt; the long record shows how unusual (or not) the current expansion is.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Splices (dotted lines): pre-1929 real GDP = JST real GDP per capita x population (measure chosen by best fit to BEA; see README) ratio-linked to BEA at 1929; 1929-46 BEA annual; quarterly BEA from 1947. Pre-1929 estimates are reconstructions (Maddison/Balke-Gordon type) with wide error bands. Annual growth plotted mid-year.

Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; FRED (St Louis Fed): GDPC1, GDP; FRED (St Louis Fed): GDPCA, GDPA; FRED (St Louis Fed): USREC

Australian real GDP (log level) and real & nominal growth since 1870🔗 Copy linkINFO

real +2.1% y/y, nominal +5.3% +0.2pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  real +2.1% y/y, nominal +5.3% y/y (Q2 2026)

Why it matters for Australia: Nominal GDP growth is the income stream that services Australia's household and business debt; when it runs below borrowing rates, leverage starts to bite.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Splice (dotted line): JST annual real GDP (per capita x population) 1870-1959 ratio-linked to ABS chain-volume GDP (RBA H1) at 1960; quarterly ABS from Sep-1959. Pre-1959 Australian GDP is a historical reconstruction (Butlin/Haig-based, via Maddison) with wide error bands. JST data end in 2020; they are only used before 1960.

Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; RBA table H1: GGDPCVGDP, GGDPCVGDPY, GGDPECCPGDP, GGDPECCPGDPY

Real GDP trend breaks (segmented log trend), US and Australia🔗 Copy linkINFO

Now vs 1983-2007 trend: US -22%, Australia -19% breaks US 1880, 1899, 1932, 1946, 1965, 2009 | AU 1892, 1903, 1915, 1930, 1945, 1969, 1999

Latest: 2025  |  breaks US 1880, 1899, 1932, 1946, 1965, 2009; Australia 1892, 1903, 1915, 1930, 1945, 1969, 1999; now vs 1983-2007 trend: US -22.1%, Australia -19.4%

Why it matters for Australia: Separates temporary slumps (level returns to the old trend) from permanent losses; a lower trend after 2008 means less income growth to carry debt at today's real rates.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Bai-Perron-style least-squares breaks in a log-linear trend (each segment has its own level and slope), minimum segment 10 years, number of breaks by the LWZ criterion (BIC picks as many or more). Break-year bands are approximate (profile likelihood; ignore serial correlation, so true uncertainty is wider). Pre-1950 data are annual historical reconstructions (JST/Maddison) with large error bands, spliced to BEA (1929) and ABS (1960); Australian population from JST to 1959 ratio-linked to World Bank from 1960. The US 1880 break reflects 12% growth in both 1879 and 1880 in the historical reconstructions (resumption boom), which are uncertain. Full tables: data/gdp_trend_segments.csv and data/gdp_shock_recovery.csv.

Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; FRED (St Louis Fed): GDPCA, GDPC1, B230RC0A052NBEA, POPTOTAUA647NWDB, USREC; RBA table H1: GGDPCVGDP

Real GDP per capita trend breaks, US and Australia🔗 Copy linkINFO

Now vs 1983-2007 trend: US -15%, Australia -24% breaks US 1880, 1899, 1932, 1946, 2009 | AU 1892, 1915, 1930, 1945, 2004

Latest: 2025  |  breaks US 1880, 1899, 1932, 1946, 2009; Australia 1892, 1915, 1930, 1945, 2004; now vs 1983-2007 trend: US -15.0%, Australia -24.4%

Why it matters for Australia: Separates temporary slumps (level returns to the old trend) from permanent losses; a lower trend after 2008 means less income growth to carry debt at today's real rates.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Bai-Perron-style least-squares breaks in a log-linear trend (each segment has its own level and slope), minimum segment 10 years, number of breaks by the LWZ criterion (BIC picks as many or more). Break-year bands are approximate (profile likelihood; ignore serial correlation, so true uncertainty is wider). Pre-1950 data are annual historical reconstructions (JST/Maddison) with large error bands, spliced to BEA (1929) and ABS (1960); Australian population from JST to 1959 ratio-linked to World Bank from 1960. The US 1880 break reflects 12% growth in both 1879 and 1880 in the historical reconstructions (resumption boom), which are uncertain. Full tables: data/gdp_trend_segments.csv and data/gdp_shock_recovery.csv.

Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; FRED (St Louis Fed): GDPCA, GDPC1, B230RC0A052NBEA, POPTOTAUA647NWDB, USREC; RBA table H1: GGDPCVGDP

Yields vs growth and real yields

10-year yield minus nominal GDP growth, US and Australia🔗 Copy linkINFO

US -1.9pp, Australia -0.4pp -1.5pp over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  US -1.9pp, Australia -0.4pp (2026 Q2); at latest daily 10y vs latest nominal growth: US -1.1pp, Australia +0.1pp

Why it matters for Australia: The thesis test in one chart: when the 10-year yield runs above nominal GDP growth, debt grows faster than the income that services it and leveraged assets come under pressure.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Gap = 10-year yield minus year-ended nominal GDP growth (annual before 1948 US / 1969 Australia; quarterly after). Uses quarter-average monthly yields, so it lags the latest daily yields. Year-ended growth swings sharply in shocks (2020-21); the 5-year mean shows the regime.

Source: Robert Shiller, ie_data.xls (shillerdata.com): Long Interest Rate GS10 (col G), CPI (col E); FRED (St Louis Fed): GS10, GDP, GDPA; Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; RBA table F2.1: FCMYGBAG10; RBA table H1: GGDPECCPGDPY

Real 10-year yield proxy (10y minus realised CPI inflation)🔗 Copy linkINFO

US +1.5pp, Australia +1.5pp -0.4pp over 1y

Latest: Aug 2026  |  US +1.5pp, Australia +1.5pp (latest daily 10y minus latest CPI y/y)

Why it matters for Australia: Your thesis variable over 150 years: sustained positive real long rates (1920s-30s, 1980s-90s) coincided with deleveraging; deeply negative ones (1940s, 1970s, 2021-22) eroded debt.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Realised (backward-looking) inflation, not expected inflation; for market real yields since 1997/1986 see the TIPS and indexed-bond cards. Australian CPI includes the 2000 GST step. Splices marked by dotted lines.

Source: Robert Shiller, ie_data.xls (shillerdata.com): Long Interest Rate GS10 (col G), CPI (col E); FRED (St Louis Fed): GS10, DGS10, CPIAUCNS; Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; RBA table F2.1: FCMYGBAG10; RBA table G1: GCPIAGYP

Productivity (Australia)

Australian labour productivity: GDP per hour worked, hours vs output, decade MFP🔗 Copy linkINFO

GDP/hour -0.1% vs Dec-19 (-8.8% vs trend); market sector +2.8% -0.2% over 1y

Latest: Q2 2026  |  GDP/hour -0.1% vs Dec-19, -8.8% vs 2010-19 trend; market sector +2.8% / -10.0%; since Jun-22 GDP +7.4%, hours +10.4%

Why it matters for Australia: Productivity is the only lasting source of per-capita income growth; when it stalls, higher real rates have to be serviced from flat real incomes.

Rule: Context only (no traffic light).

Caveat: Non-market sector output (health, education, public administration, much of the care economy incl. NDIS) is largely measured by inputs, so its measured productivity is near flat by construction; the shift of hours into these sectors drags whole-economy GDP/hour. 2020-21 levels are inflated by composition (low-paid, low-output hours dropped out in lockdowns), so the post-2021 fall partly unwinds that. MFP data are annual to 2024-25 (released Feb 2026); the 2020s bar covers only 5 years. Implied population = GDP / GDP per capita.

Source: ABS 5206.0 Table 1 (Key aggregates): A2304192L GDP/hour, A3606058X & A130272211T GVA/hour market & non-market, A2304428W hours, A2304402X GDP, A2304404C GDP per capita, A2304410X real GDI (SA); ABS 5260.0.55.002 Industry multifactor productivity: Tables 2-5 (market sector, 12 selected industries); ABS 6345.0 Wage Price Index Table 1: A2713849C (all sectors, SA); RBA table G1: GCPIAG