| Indicator | Latest | Date | Change | Status | Rule result |
|---|
| Australia: economy, prices & rates heating 10 · steady 23 · cooling 9 · stress 2 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.6% | Aug 2026 | +0.4pp over 1y | COOLING | 3-mo avg 4.50%: +0.33pp vs prior-12m low, +0.23pp y/y |
| Underemployment & underutilisation | 6.2% | Aug 2026 | +0.5pp over 1y | COOLING | underemployment +0.5pp y/y |
| Youth (15-24) unemployment rate | 10.8% | Aug 2026 | +1.1pp over 1y | COOLING | +1.1pp y/y |
| Hours worked & employment growth (y/y) | 1.0% | Aug 2026 | -0.3pp over 1y | STEADY | trend hours +1.0% y/y |
| Employment-to-population ratio | 63.9% | Aug 2026 | -0.1pp over 1y | STEADY | -0.1pp y/y |
| Job vacancies ('000) | 325 '000 | Q3 2026 | -1.4% over 1y | STEADY | -1.4% y/y; vacancies/labour force 2.1% |
| Wage Price Index (y/y) | 3.2% | Q2 2026 | -0.2pp over 1y | STEADY | 3.2% y/y |
| Unit labour costs & productivity (y/y) | 3.5% | Q2 2026 | -1.2pp over 1y | STEADY | ULC 3.5% y/y; productivity -0.3% |
| Trimmed mean CPI (y/y) | 3.6% | Aug 2026 | +0.1pp over 3m | HEATING | monthly trimmed mean 3.6% y/y (quarterly 3.6% to Jun 2026) |
| Headline CPI (y/y) | 4.0% | Aug 2026 | +0.0pp over 3m | HEATING | 4.0% y/y |
| Services vs goods inflation (y/y) | 3.7% | Aug 2026 | +0.0pp over 3m | STEADY | services 3.7%, goods 4.2% y/y |
| Rents, insurance & electricity (y/y) | 3.6% | Aug 2026 | +0.0pp over 3m | STEADY | rents 3.6%, insurance 5.6%, electricity 13.2% y/y |
| Consumer inflation expectations (1y ahead) | 4.9% | Q3 2026 | +0.2pp over 1y | STEADY | 4.9% |
| Cash rate & real cash rate | Cash 4.60% (2026 14 Oct) | Aug 2026 | +0.2pp over 1y | STEADY | cash 4.60% minus trimmed mean = +0.75pp |
| AGS 3y & 10y yields | 4.93% | 2026 7 Oct | +51bp over 3m | HEATING | 3y 4.93% (+51bp 3m); 10y 5.40%; 10y-3y +47bp |
| AGS 10y-3y curve | +0.47 pp | 2026 7 Oct | +4bp over 3m | STEADY | +47bp |
| AGS indexed bond (real) yield | 3.00% | 2026 7 Oct | +48bp over 3m | COOLING | 3.00% |
| 3m BBSW minus cash rate (funding proxy) | +0.18 pp | 2026 14 Oct | +6bp over 3m | STEADY | +18bp |
| BBB corporate spread to AGS (5y) | 1.09 pp | Aug 2026 | +14bp over 3m | HEATING | spread at 8th percentile of trailing 10 years |
| Housing credit growth (y/y) | 7.3% | Aug 2026 | +1.2pp over 1y | COOLING | y/y 7.3%, 3-mo annualised 6.2% (-1.1pp vs y/y) |
| Investor housing credit growth (y/y) | 9.6% | Aug 2026 | +2.6pp over 1y | COOLING | y/y 9.6%, 3-mo annualised 6.2% (-3.4pp vs y/y) |
| Business credit growth (y/y) | 10.9% | Aug 2026 | +1.1pp over 1y | HEATING | y/y 10.9%, 3-mo annualised 12.7% (+1.8pp vs y/y) |
| Mortgage rates (variable) | 6.20% | Aug 2026 | +70bp over 1y | STEADY | outstanding OO variable 6.20% minus trimmed mean = +2.60pp (Aug 2026) |
| New housing loan commitments (A$bn/qtr) | 97.6 A$bn | Q2 2026 | +6.8% over 1y | STEADY | +6.8% y/y; investor +8.1% |
| Non-ADI (non-bank) share of new housing loans | 10.7% | Q2 2026 | +3.8pp over 1y | HEATING | 10.7% (+3.8pp y/y) |
| Mean dwelling price (y/y) | 6.8% | Q2 2026 | -3.2pp over 3m | STEADY | +6.8% y/y; mean price A$1,100k |
| Private dwelling approvals ('000/month) | 17.9 '000 | Aug 2026 | +4.7% over 6m | STEADY | trend +4.7% over 6m |
| Dwelling commencements & completions ('000, 4-qtr sum) | 204 '000 | Q2 2026 | +13.2% over 1y | HEATING | commencements 204k (+13.2% y/y); completions 180k; under construction 248k |
| Household spending (nominal, y/y) | 6.8% | Aug 2026 | +2.1pp over 1y | STEADY | nominal 6.8%, approx real +2.8% (Aug 2026); discretionary 7.2% |
| Household saving ratio | 6.5% | Q2 2026 | +0.6pp over 1y | STEADY | 6.5% (+0.6pp y/y) |
| Real GDP & GDP per capita (y/y) | 0.7% | Q2 2026 | +0.3pp over 1y | STEADY | per capita +0.7%, total +2.1% y/y |
| NAB business conditions | -4.0 net bal. | Sep 2026 | -3.8 over 3m | COOLING | -4.0 |
| Westpac-MI consumer sentiment | 80.4 | Oct 2026 | -3.5 over 3m | COOLING | 80.4 |
| Companies entering external administration (ASIC Series 1) | 1808 count/mo | Aug 2026 | 3-mo sum +16% y/y | COOLING | 3-mo sum 4355 (+16% y/y); construction 3-mo 1457 (+54% y/y) |
| Terms of trade (index) | 94.8 | Q2 2026 | -0.5% over 1y | STEADY | -0.5% y/y |
| RBA commodity price index | 106.6 | Sep 2026 | +6.6% over 1y | STEADY | A$ +6.6% y/y; US$ +15.2% |
| Iron ore (US$/t) | 98 US$ | Sep 2026 | -5.4% over 1y | STEADY | -5.4% y/y |
| Thermal coal, Newcastle (US$/t) | 147 US$ | Sep 2026 | +38.4% over 1y | HEATING | +38.4% y/y |
| LNG, Japan import price (US$/mmbtu) | 14.25 US$ | Sep 2026 | +24.2% over 1y | HEATING | +24.2% y/y |
| Gold (US$/oz) | 4,319 US$ | Sep 2026 | +17.7% over 1y | HEATING | +17.7% y/y |
| AUD: US$ and trade-weighted index | 0.7002 US$ | 2026 14 Oct | +0.3% over 3m | STEADY | AUD/USD 0.7002; TWI 65.0 (-0.5% 3m) |
| Listed private-credit trusts: price vs NTA (headline: MXT) | MXT 1.670 (2026 15 Oct) | 2026 15 Oct | -5.6% over 1m | STRESS | As at 2026 15 Oct: MXT 1.670 vs NTA 1.962 (-14.9%); MOT 1.475 vs NTA 1.935 (-23.8%); MRE 1.395 vs NTA 2.22 (-37.2%) |
| ASX 200 and financials | 8,728 | 2026 14 Oct | -0.8% over 3m | STEADY | -5.9% vs 52-week high |
| ASX 200 A-REITs | 3,267 | 2026 14 Oct | -8.8% over 3m | STRESS | -22.9% vs 52-week high |
| Australia: RBA Chart Pack highlights heating 0 · steady 2 · cooling 2 · stress 0 |
| Housing loan payments to disposable income | 9.4% | Q1 2026 | -0.5pp over 1y | COOLING | 9.4% vs 10y avg 8.3% |
| Broad money and M1 growth (y/y) | 6.9% | Aug 2026 | +0.1pp over 1y | STEADY | broad money 6.9%, M1 6.5% y/y |
| Real wage growth (WPI minus CPI, y/y) | -0.7 pp | Q2 2026 | -2.0pp over 1y | COOLING | WPI 3.2% minus CPI 3.9% |
| Longer-term inflation expectations | 2.5% | Q3 2026 | -0.1pp over 1y | STEADY | economists 2.5%, 10y break-even 2.4% |
| China heating 2 · steady 7 · cooling 1 · stress 2 |
| Credit impulse (BIS, % of GDP) | 0.9 % GDP | Q1 2026 | +1.6pp over 1y | STEADY | total non-fin +0.9pp; private -1.1pp of GDP |
| NBS manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | Sep 2026 | -0.2 over 3m | STEADY | 50.1 |
| NBS non-manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | Sep 2026 | +0.0 over 3m | STEADY | 50.2 |
| CPI (y/y) | 0.8% | Aug 2026 | -0.4pp over 3m | STEADY | +0.8% y/y |
| Producer prices (y/y) | 3.8% | Aug 2026 | -0.1pp over 3m | HEATING | +3.8% y/y |
| Industrial production & retail sales (y/y) | 5.2% | Aug 2026 | +0.7pp over 3m | STEADY | IP +5.2%, retail sales +0.4% y/y |
| Property: starts, sales & investment (YTD y/y) | -24.8% | Aug 2026 | -2.2pp over 3m | STRESS | starts -24.8%, sales -13.0%, investment -19.9% YTD y/y |
| 70-city new home prices (avg y/y) | -3.3% | Aug 2026 | +0.4pp over 3m | STRESS | -3.3% y/y; -0.17% m/m; 48 of 70 cities falling m/m |
| Exports (US$, 3-mo y/y) | 25.2% | Aug 2026 | +13.3pp over 3m | HEATING | 3-mo exports +25.2% y/y |
| China 10y government bond yield | 1.69% | Aug 2026 | -15bp over 1y | STEADY | 1.69% (-15bp y/y) |
| USD/CNY | 6.6917 CNY | 2026 14 Oct | -1.2% over 3m | STEADY | 6.6917 (-1.2% 3m) |
| Shanghai Composite & Hang Seng China Enterprises | 8,175 | 2026 13 Oct | -1.7% over 3m | COOLING | -14.8% vs 52-week high |
| Japan heating 2 · steady 7 · cooling 0 · stress 1 |
| BoJ policy rate | 1.25% | 2026 6 Oct | +0.8pp over 1y | HEATING | 1.25% (+0.75pp y/y) |
| JGB 2y & 10y yields | 3.019% | 2026 13 Oct | +30bp over 3m | HEATING | 10y 3.019% (+30bp 3m); 2y 1.928% |
| JGB 30y yield | 4.064% | 2026 13 Oct | +20bp over 3m | STEADY | 4.064% (-1bp 1m, +20bp 3m) |
| USD/JPY | 158.15 JPY | 2026 14 Oct | +1.6% over 1m | STEADY | 158.15 (+1.6% 1m, -2.6% 3m) |
| AUD/JPY | 110.74 JPY | 2026 14 Oct | +0.1% over 1m | STEADY | 110.74 (+0.1% 1m, -2.3% 3m) |
| Japan CPI (y/y) | 1.9% | Jul 2026 | +0.6pp over 3m | STEADY | 1.9% y/y |
| Japanese net buying of foreign bonds (13-wk sum, ¥tn) | -1.8 ¥tn | 2026 3 Oct | latest week -0.35tn | STEADY | -1.8tn over 13 wks (22th pct) |
| Foreign net buying of Japanese equities & bonds (13-wk, ¥tn) | -3.2 ¥tn | 2026 3 Oct | latest week equities +2.19tn | STRESS | equities -3.2tn, long-term debt +0.8tn over 13 wks (9th pct) |
| Nikkei 225 | 67,778 | 2026 13 Oct | +1.4% over 3m | STEADY | -6.3% vs 52-week high |
| Japan exports (US$, 3-mo y/y) | 9.8% | Aug 2026 | +4.6pp over 3m | STEADY | 3-mo exports +9.8% y/y |
| Asia region: policy, inflation & yields heating 4 · steady 2 · cooling 1 · stress 0 |
| Korea exports (US$, 3-mo y/y) | 67.5% | Aug 2026 | +17.1pp over 3m | HEATING | 3-mo exports +67.5% y/y |
| Asia-5 exports (US$, 3-mo y/y) | 27.1% | Aug 2026 | +12.3pp over 3m | HEATING | 3-mo exports +27.1% y/y |
| TAIEX & KOSPI (semiconductor cycle proxy) | 48,341 | 2026 13 Oct | +79.6% over 1y | HEATING | TAIEX +80% 12m (-3.0% vs 52w high); KOSPI +68% 12m |
| OECD business confidence (PMI substitute) | 99.81 | Aug 2026 | +0.0 over 3m | STEADY | CN/JP/KR avg 99.81; China 98.4 (Aug), Japan 101.7 (Sep), Korea 99.4 (Sep), Australia 99.9 (Aug), US 100.3 (Sep), Indonesia 99.0 (Jun) |
| Asian FX basket vs USD (8 currencies, equal weight) | 95.7 | 2026 14 Oct | +1.5% over 3m | STEADY | +1.5% 3m; worst 3m: KRW +10.3%, TWD -0.0%, INR +1.2%, IDR +1.1%, SGD +1.0%, THB -0.1%, MYR -0.1%, PHP -1.8% |
| Policy rates: Korea, India, Indonesia, China + AU, JP, US | 3.00% | 2026 28 Aug | +50bp over 6m | HEATING | 6m: cut none; hiked KR, ID, JP, AU, US; KR 3.00, IN 5.25, ID 5.75, CN 3.00, JP 1.25, AU 4.60, US 3.88 |
| Hang Seng Index | 24,345 | 2026 13 Oct | -2.7% over 3m | COOLING | -13.0% vs 52-week high |
| US economy, rates & global credit heating 8 · steady 18 · cooling 3 · stress 3 |
| Fed funds & real fed funds | FF 3.88%, real +0.62pp | Aug 2026 | -0.9pp over 1y | STEADY | effective 3.88% (13 Oct); real +0.62pp (Aug 2026); +24bp over 6m |
| US Treasury 2y & 10y | 5.21% | 2026 13 Oct | +64bp over 3m | HEATING | 10y 5.21% (+64bp 3m); 2y 4.79% |
| US 2s10s curve (10y minus 2y) | +0.37 pp | 2026 14 Oct | +0bp over 3m | STEADY | +37bp |
| US 10y real yield (TIPS) & breakeven | 2.88% | 2026 13 Oct | +53bp over 3m | COOLING | real 2.88%, breakeven 2.35% |
| Broad trade-weighted US dollar | 121.6 | 2026 9 Oct | +0.9% over 3m | STEADY | +0.9% 3m, +0.4% 12m |
| SOFR minus IORB (repo funding pressure, bp) | -1 bp | 2026 13 Oct | +2bp over 3m | STEADY | latest -1bp, 5-day avg -1.8bp; ON RRP US$0bn |
| US high-yield & IG corporate spreads (OAS) | 3.16% | 2026 13 Oct | +45bp over 3m | HEATING | HY 3.16%, IG 0.83% (HY at 64th pct of available history) |
| Asia USD corporate & EM high-yield spreads | 0.91% | 2026 13 Oct | +8bp over 3m | STEADY | Asia corp OAS at 34th percentile of trailing 10 years |
| BDC index ETF (BIZD): listed US private-credit proxy | 12.02 US$ | 2026 14 Oct | -5.5% over 3m | STRESS | -20.1% vs 52-week high |
| Chicago Fed NFCI & St Louis stress index | -0.49 | 2026 2 Oct | +0.0 over 3m | HEATING | NFCI -0.49; STLFSI -0.72 |
| VIX | 15.3 | 2026 13 Oct | -2.4 over 1m | STEADY | 15.3 |
| US banks tightening C&I lending standards (net %) | +0.0 net % | Q3 2026 | -9.5 over 1y | STEADY | +0.0 net % tightening |
| US bank C&I loans (y/y) | 10.0% | Sep 2026 | +13.1pp over 1y | COOLING | y/y 10.0%, 3-mo annualised 8.8% (-1.2pp vs y/y) |
| US core PCE & CPI inflation (y/y) | 3.0% | Aug 2026 | -0.2pp over 3m | HEATING | core PCE 3.0%, CPI 3.7% |
| US unemployment rate & Sahm rule | 4.2% | Sep 2026 | -0.2pp over 1y | STEADY | 3-mo avg 4.13%: +0.00pp vs prior-12m low, -0.10pp y/y; FRED SAHMREALTIME 0.00 |
| US initial jobless claims (4-wk avg, '000) | 198 '000 | 2026 3 Oct | -15.4% over 1y | HEATING | 198k (-15.4% y/y) |
| Fed balance sheet (US$tn) | 6.75 US$tn | 2026 7 Oct | +2.4% over 1y | STEADY | US$6.75tn (+2.4% y/y) |
| Brent crude (US$/bbl) | 125.4 US$ | 2026 6 Oct | +87.0% over 1y | HEATING | US$125.4 (+87.0% y/y) |
| US hours worked: average weekly hours & aggregate hours index (private) | 34.4 hrs | Sep 2026 | +0.2 over 1y | STEADY | avg hours 34.4; hours index +0.9% y/y |
| US temporary help services employment (m) | 2.49 m | Sep 2026 | +0.6% over 1y | STEADY | 2.49m (+0.6% y/y) |
| US initial claims (4-wk avg): % above 12-month low | 0.0% | 2026 3 Oct | 4-wk avg 198k | STEADY | 4-wk avg 198k, 0.0% above 12m low |
| US continuing claims (m) | 1.72 m | 2026 26 Sep | -10.7% over 1y | HEATING | 1.72m (-11.0% y/y) |
| US JOLTS hires and quits rates (%) | 3.3% | Aug 2026 | +0.1pp over 1y | COOLING | hires 3.3%, quits 1.9% (Aug 2026); Sahm real-time 0.00 (Sep 2026) |
| US Treasury withheld income & employment taxes (20-day sum, % y/y) | +6.3% | 2026 13 Oct | | STEADY | +6.3% y/y vs 1y avg +4.0%, CPI 3.7% |
| US hires as % of the civilian population (JOLTS) vs labour-force participation | 1.89% | Aug 2026 | +0.0pp over 1y | STEADY | hires 1.89% of population (3m avg 1.90%); participation 61.8% |
| US core PCE vs Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE inflation (y/y %) | 2.19% | Aug 2026 | -0.7pp over 1y | STEADY | trimmed mean 2.19% vs core 3.01% y/y |
| US high-yield OAS vs CCC-and-below OAS (%) | 12.67% | 2026 13 Oct | +297bp over 3m | STRESS | CCC 12.67% vs HY 3.16% |
| US leveraged-loan ETF prices: FLBL and BKLN (US$) | 22.73 US$ | 2026 14 Oct | -1.0% over 3m | STRESS | FLBL $22.73, -6.0% vs 3-month high |
| USD credit to non-banks outside the US (y/y) | 7.3% | Q1 2026 | +2.1pp over 1y | STEADY | +7.3% y/y |
| Credit-to-GDP gaps (BIS, pp) | -9.7 pp | Q1 2026 | +3.8pp over 1y | HEATING | Japan +5.7; China -5.1; Australia -9.7; US -11.3; Korea -15.1; Euro area -17.1 (highest: Japan) |
| Private-sector debt service ratios (BIS, % of income) | 20.3% | Q1 2026 | -0.3pp over 1y | STEADY | AU 20.3% vs 10y avg 19.5%; China 19.1, Japan 15.5, US 13.8, Korea 19.3 |
| Private credit impulse (BIS, % of GDP) | 0.2 % GDP | Q1 2026 | -2.2 over 1y | STEADY | Australia +0.2, US +2.8, Japan +7.0, Korea +0.2 |
| US dollar funding & liquidity heating 2 · steady 6 · cooling 0 · stress 0 |
| Repo vs IORB: SOFR, TGCR and SOFR 99th percentile (bp) | -1 bp | 2026 13 Oct | +2bp over 3m | STEADY | SOFR 3.89%, TGCR 3.88%, BGCR 3.88%; SOFR-IORB 5d -1.8bp, p99 5d +6.4bp |
| Primary dealer Treasury fails (deliver + receive, ex-TIPS, US$bn/week) | 260.0 US$bn | 2026 30 Sep | -18.8% over 1y | HEATING | fails to deliver US$130.7bn + receive US$129.3bn (wk 30 Sep); 4-wk avg 1.7x the 3-yr median |
| Fed overnight repo operations incl. Standing Repo Facility (US$bn/day) | 0.0 US$bn | 2026 14 Oct | +0.0 over 3m | STEADY | latest US$0.0bn; 20-day max US$1.2bn (30 Sep); H.4.1 repo (Wed) US$0.0bn |
| Fed central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (US$bn) | 0.21 US$bn | 2026 7 Oct | +0.2 over 1y | STEADY | US$207m outstanding (peaks: US$583bn Dec-2008, US$449bn May-2020) |
| Discount window: primary & secondary credit (US$bn) | 9.96 US$bn | 2026 7 Oct | +2.8 over 1y | HEATING | primary US$9.96bn (3-yr median 4.69bn); secondary US$0m |
| Near-term forward spread: 3m rate 18m ahead minus 3m bill (bp) | +85 bp | 2026 9 Oct | +50bp over 3m | STEADY | +85bp (09 Oct); 18m-ahead 3m forward 5.10% |
| US Treasury curve: 10y-3m and 10y-2y (pp) | +0.91 pp | 2026 14 Oct | +21bp over 3m | STEADY | 10y-3m +0.91pp, 10y-2y +0.37pp (14 Oct) |
| Copper/gold ratio (x1000) vs US 10y yield | 1.60 ratio | 2026 14 Oct | +34.0% over 1y | STEADY | 1.60 (copper US$6.61/lb, gold US$4,127/oz); +3.0% over 3m |
| Credit risks: where the spend is going heating 7 · steady 2 · cooling 1 · stress 1 |
| How fast is US data-centre and power construction growing? ($bn, annual rate) | 85 $bn | Aug 2026 | +73.2% over 1y | HEATING | data centres $85bn SAAR, +73% y/y |
| Is US electricity demand rising with the data-centre build? (12-month sales, % y/y) | +3.1% | Jul 2026 | all sectors +1.2% | HEATING | commercial +3.1% y/y, all sectors +1.2% |
| Is US chip production keeping up? Semiconductor output (index 2017=100) | 190.1 | Aug 2026 | +12.4% over 1y | HEATING | 190.1 (+12.4% y/y) |
| How much of their operating cash are the big five spending on capex? (TTM capex ÷ OCF, %) | 82% | Q2 2026 | +21.0pp over 1y | HEATING | 82% (Q2 2026); free cash flow $126bn TTM |
| Are investors being paid for credit risk? US corporate spreads by rating (bp) | 103 bp | 2026 13 Oct | +7bp over 3m | STEADY | BBB 103bp, 43th percentile of 3 years |
| Is stress building in the weakest borrowers? CCC minus BB spread (bp) | 1076 bp | 2026 13 Oct | +267bp over 3m | STRESS | 1076bp vs 3-year median 717bp |
| Are banks funding private credit? US bank loans to non-bank financial institutions (% y/y) | +19.5% | 2026 30 Sep | -35.6pp over 1y | HEATING | +19.5% y/y; level $2.08tn |
| Are private-credit loans being marked down? BDC portfolios: fair value as % of cost | 98.9% | Q2 2026 | latest 10-Q | STEADY | median 98.9%; Ares Capital 98.9%, Blue Owl Capital Corp 99.0%, Blackstone Secured Lending 96.4%, FS KKR 90.6%, Main Street 115.5% |
| Do investors believe BDC valuations? Share price as % of last reported NAV | 93% | 2026 14 Oct | -4.2pp over 1y | COOLING | median 93% of NAV (2026 14 Oct) |
| Is Australian business investment growing? Private new capex, chain volume (A$bn/qtr) | 51.0 A$bn | Q2 2026 | +10.7% over 1y | HEATING | A$51.0bn (+10.7% y/y) |
| Which Australian industries are borrowing fastest? Bank business credit by industry (% y/y) | +22.6% | Aug 2026 | +6.2pp over 1y | HEATING | financial & insurance +22.6% y/y |