Australia from Asia: macro & credit-cycle dashboard
Last updated: 2026 14 Oct, 18:16 AWST (Perth). Built from free public data. Australia's cycle viewed through a triangle of China (commodities, terms of trade, property-credit), Japan (rates, yen, capital flows) and the US (Fed, Treasuries, dollar funding), linked by the global credit cycle. Every traffic light comes from the explicit rule printed on its card.
HEATING running hot / accelerating / tightening pressure building (e.g. inflation above target, rapid credit growth, rising yields, booming asset prices)
STEADY inside its normal range under the stated rule
COOLING slowing / weakening, or a restrictive setting that is exerting cooling pressure (e.g. high real rates, inverted curve)
STRESS dislocation signal: spreads or insolvencies surging, carry unwind, sharp drawdown, labour-market break (Sahm-style)
INFO context chart only, no traffic-light rule
STEADY inside its normal range under the stated rule
COOLING slowing / weakening, or a restrictive setting that is exerting cooling pressure (e.g. high real rates, inverted curve)
STRESS dislocation signal: spreads or insolvencies surging, carry unwind, sharp drawdown, labour-market break (Sahm-style)
INFO context chart only, no traffic-light rule
Overview: traffic-light summary
35heating 68steady 17cooling 8stress
| Indicator | Latest | Date | Change | Status | Rule result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia: economy, prices & rates heating 10 · steady 23 · cooling 9 · stress 2 | |||||
| Unemployment rate | 4.6% | Aug 2026 | +0.4pp over 1y | COOLING | 3-mo avg 4.50%: +0.33pp vs prior-12m low, +0.23pp y/y |
| Underemployment & underutilisation | 6.2% | Aug 2026 | +0.5pp over 1y | COOLING | underemployment +0.5pp y/y |
| Youth (15-24) unemployment rate | 10.8% | Aug 2026 | +1.1pp over 1y | COOLING | +1.1pp y/y |
| Hours worked & employment growth (y/y) | 1.0% | Aug 2026 | -0.3pp over 1y | STEADY | trend hours +1.0% y/y |
| Employment-to-population ratio | 63.9% | Aug 2026 | -0.1pp over 1y | STEADY | -0.1pp y/y |
| Job vacancies ('000) | 325 '000 | Q3 2026 | -1.4% over 1y | STEADY | -1.4% y/y; vacancies/labour force 2.1% |
| Wage Price Index (y/y) | 3.2% | Q2 2026 | -0.2pp over 1y | STEADY | 3.2% y/y |
| Unit labour costs & productivity (y/y) | 3.5% | Q2 2026 | -1.2pp over 1y | STEADY | ULC 3.5% y/y; productivity -0.3% |
| Trimmed mean CPI (y/y) | 3.6% | Aug 2026 | +0.1pp over 3m | HEATING | monthly trimmed mean 3.6% y/y (quarterly 3.6% to Jun 2026) |
| Headline CPI (y/y) | 4.0% | Aug 2026 | +0.0pp over 3m | HEATING | 4.0% y/y |
| Services vs goods inflation (y/y) | 3.7% | Aug 2026 | +0.0pp over 3m | STEADY | services 3.7%, goods 4.2% y/y |
| Rents, insurance & electricity (y/y) | 3.6% | Aug 2026 | +0.0pp over 3m | STEADY | rents 3.6%, insurance 5.6%, electricity 13.2% y/y |
| Consumer inflation expectations (1y ahead) | 4.9% | Q3 2026 | +0.2pp over 1y | STEADY | 4.9% |
| Cash rate & real cash rate | Cash 4.60% (2026 13 Oct) | Aug 2026 | +0.2pp over 1y | STEADY | cash 4.60% minus trimmed mean = +0.75pp |
| AGS 3y & 10y yields | 4.93% | 2026 7 Oct | +51bp over 3m | HEATING | 3y 4.93% (+51bp 3m); 10y 5.40%; 10y-3y +47bp |
| AGS 10y-3y curve | +0.47 pp | 2026 7 Oct | +4bp over 3m | STEADY | +47bp |
| AGS indexed bond (real) yield | 3.00% | 2026 7 Oct | +48bp over 3m | COOLING | 3.00% |
| 3m BBSW minus cash rate (funding proxy) | +0.16 pp | 2026 13 Oct | +4bp over 3m | STEADY | +16bp |
| BBB corporate spread to AGS (5y) | 1.09 pp | Aug 2026 | +14bp over 3m | HEATING | spread at 8th percentile of trailing 10 years |
| Housing credit growth (y/y) | 7.3% | Aug 2026 | +1.2pp over 1y | COOLING | y/y 7.3%, 3-mo annualised 6.2% (-1.1pp vs y/y) |
| Investor housing credit growth (y/y) | 9.6% | Aug 2026 | +2.6pp over 1y | COOLING | y/y 9.6%, 3-mo annualised 6.2% (-3.4pp vs y/y) |
| Business credit growth (y/y) | 10.9% | Aug 2026 | +1.1pp over 1y | HEATING | y/y 10.9%, 3-mo annualised 12.7% (+1.8pp vs y/y) |
| Mortgage rates (variable) | 6.20% | Aug 2026 | +70bp over 1y | STEADY | outstanding OO variable 6.20% minus trimmed mean = +2.60pp (Aug 2026) |
| New housing loan commitments (A$bn/qtr) | 97.6 A$bn | Q2 2026 | +6.8% over 1y | STEADY | +6.8% y/y; investor +8.1% |
| Non-ADI (non-bank) share of new housing loans | 10.7% | Q2 2026 | +3.8pp over 1y | HEATING | 10.7% (+3.8pp y/y) |
| Mean dwelling price (y/y) | 6.8% | Q2 2026 | -3.2pp over 3m | STEADY | +6.8% y/y; mean price A$1,100k |
| Private dwelling approvals ('000/month) | 17.9 '000 | Aug 2026 | +4.7% over 6m | STEADY | trend +4.7% over 6m |
| Dwelling commencements & completions ('000, 4-qtr sum) | 204 '000 | Q2 2026 | +13.2% over 1y | HEATING | commencements 204k (+13.2% y/y); completions 180k; under construction 248k |
| Household spending (nominal, y/y) | 6.8% | Aug 2026 | +2.1pp over 1y | STEADY | nominal 6.8%, approx real +2.8% (Aug 2026); discretionary 7.2% |
| Household saving ratio | 6.5% | Q2 2026 | +0.6pp over 1y | STEADY | 6.5% (+0.6pp y/y) |
| Real GDP & GDP per capita (y/y) | 0.7% | Q2 2026 | +0.3pp over 1y | STEADY | per capita +0.7%, total +2.1% y/y |
| NAB business conditions | -4.0 net bal. | Sep 2026 | -3.8 over 3m | COOLING | -4.0 |
| Westpac-MI consumer sentiment | 80.4 | Oct 2026 | -3.5 over 3m | COOLING | 80.4 |
| Companies entering external administration (ASIC Series 1) | 1808 count/mo | Aug 2026 | 3-mo sum +16% y/y | COOLING | 3-mo sum 4355 (+16% y/y); construction 3-mo 1457 (+54% y/y) |
| Terms of trade (index) | 94.8 | Q2 2026 | -0.5% over 1y | STEADY | -0.5% y/y |
| RBA commodity price index | 106.6 | Sep 2026 | +6.6% over 1y | STEADY | A$ +6.6% y/y; US$ +15.2% |
| Iron ore (US$/t) | 98 US$ | Sep 2026 | -5.4% over 1y | STEADY | -5.4% y/y |
| Thermal coal, Newcastle (US$/t) | 147 US$ | Sep 2026 | +38.4% over 1y | HEATING | +38.4% y/y |
| LNG, Japan import price (US$/mmbtu) | 14.25 US$ | Sep 2026 | +24.2% over 1y | HEATING | +24.2% y/y |
| Gold (US$/oz) | 4,319 US$ | Sep 2026 | +17.7% over 1y | HEATING | +17.7% y/y |
| AUD: US$ and trade-weighted index | 0.7002 US$ | 2026 14 Oct | +0.3% over 3m | STEADY | AUD/USD 0.7002; TWI 65.0 (-0.5% 3m) |
| Listed private-credit trusts: price vs NTA | 1.620 A$ | 2026 14 Oct | -10.0% over 1m | STRESS | MXT 1.620 vs NTA 1.962 (-17.4%); MOT 1.465 vs NTA 1.935 (-24.3%); MRE 1.400 vs NTA 2.22 (-36.9%) |
| ASX 200 and financials | 8,728 | 2026 14 Oct | -0.8% over 3m | STEADY | -5.9% vs 52-week high |
| ASX 200 A-REITs | 3,267 | 2026 14 Oct | -8.8% over 3m | STRESS | -22.9% vs 52-week high |
| Australia: RBA Chart Pack highlights heating 0 · steady 2 · cooling 2 · stress 0 | |||||
| Housing loan payments to disposable income | 9.4% | Q1 2026 | -0.5pp over 1y | COOLING | 9.4% vs 10y avg 8.3% |
| Broad money and M1 growth (y/y) | 6.9% | Aug 2026 | +0.1pp over 1y | STEADY | broad money 6.9%, M1 6.5% y/y |
| Real wage growth (WPI minus CPI, y/y) | -0.7 pp | Q2 2026 | -2.0pp over 1y | COOLING | WPI 3.2% minus CPI 3.9% |
| Longer-term inflation expectations | 2.5% | Q3 2026 | -0.1pp over 1y | STEADY | economists 2.5%, 10y break-even 2.4% |
| China heating 2 · steady 7 · cooling 1 · stress 2 | |||||
| Credit impulse (BIS, % of GDP) | 0.9 % GDP | Q1 2026 | +1.6pp over 1y | STEADY | total non-fin +0.9pp; private -1.1pp of GDP |
| NBS manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | Sep 2026 | -0.2 over 3m | STEADY | 50.1 |
| NBS non-manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | Sep 2026 | +0.0 over 3m | STEADY | 50.2 |
| CPI (y/y) | 0.8% | Aug 2026 | -0.4pp over 3m | STEADY | +0.8% y/y |
| Producer prices (y/y) | 3.8% | Aug 2026 | -0.1pp over 3m | HEATING | +3.8% y/y |
| Industrial production & retail sales (y/y) | 5.2% | Aug 2026 | +0.7pp over 3m | STEADY | IP +5.2%, retail sales +0.4% y/y |
| Property: starts, sales & investment (YTD y/y) | -24.8% | Aug 2026 | -2.2pp over 3m | STRESS | starts -24.8%, sales -13.0%, investment -19.9% YTD y/y |
| 70-city new home prices (avg y/y) | -3.3% | Aug 2026 | +0.4pp over 3m | STRESS | -3.3% y/y; -0.17% m/m; 48 of 70 cities falling m/m |
| Exports (US$, 3-mo y/y) | 25.2% | Aug 2026 | +13.3pp over 3m | HEATING | 3-mo exports +25.2% y/y |
| China 10y government bond yield | 1.69% | Aug 2026 | -15bp over 1y | STEADY | 1.69% (-15bp y/y) |
| USD/CNY | 6.6917 CNY | 2026 14 Oct | -1.2% over 3m | STEADY | 6.6917 (-1.2% 3m) |
| Shanghai Composite & Hang Seng China Enterprises | 8,183 | 2026 14 Oct | +0.6% over 3m | COOLING | -14.8% vs 52-week high |
| Japan heating 2 · steady 7 · cooling 0 · stress 1 | |||||
| BoJ policy rate | 1.25% | 2026 6 Oct | +0.8pp over 1y | HEATING | 1.25% (+0.75pp y/y) |
| JGB 2y & 10y yields | 3.019% | 2026 13 Oct | +30bp over 3m | HEATING | 10y 3.019% (+30bp 3m); 2y 1.928% |
| JGB 30y yield | 4.064% | 2026 13 Oct | +20bp over 3m | STEADY | 4.064% (-1bp 1m, +20bp 3m) |
| USD/JPY | 158.15 JPY | 2026 14 Oct | +1.6% over 1m | STEADY | 158.15 (+1.6% 1m, -2.6% 3m) |
| AUD/JPY | 110.74 JPY | 2026 14 Oct | +0.1% over 1m | STEADY | 110.74 (+0.1% 1m, -2.3% 3m) |
| Japan CPI (y/y) | 1.9% | Jul 2026 | +0.6pp over 3m | STEADY | 1.9% y/y |
| Japanese net buying of foreign bonds (13-wk sum, ¥tn) | -1.8 ¥tn | 2026 3 Oct | latest week -0.35tn | STEADY | -1.8tn over 13 wks (22th pct) |
| Foreign net buying of Japanese equities & bonds (13-wk, ¥tn) | -3.2 ¥tn | 2026 3 Oct | latest week equities +2.19tn | STRESS | equities -3.2tn, long-term debt +0.8tn over 13 wks (9th pct) |
| Nikkei 225 | 67,744 | 2026 14 Oct | +5.6% over 3m | STEADY | -6.4% vs 52-week high |
| Japan exports (US$, 3-mo y/y) | 9.8% | Aug 2026 | +4.6pp over 3m | STEADY | 3-mo exports +9.8% y/y |
| Asia region: policy, inflation & yields heating 4 · steady 2 · cooling 1 · stress 0 | |||||
| Korea exports (US$, 3-mo y/y) | 67.5% | Aug 2026 | +17.1pp over 3m | HEATING | 3-mo exports +67.5% y/y |
| Asia-5 exports (US$, 3-mo y/y) | 27.1% | Aug 2026 | +12.3pp over 3m | HEATING | 3-mo exports +27.1% y/y |
| TAIEX & KOSPI (semiconductor cycle proxy) | 48,626 | 2026 14 Oct | +81.5% over 1y | HEATING | TAIEX +81% 12m (-2.4% vs 52w high); KOSPI +69% 12m |
| OECD business confidence (PMI substitute) | 99.81 | Aug 2026 | +0.0 over 3m | STEADY | CN/JP/KR avg 99.81; China 98.4 (Aug), Japan 101.7 (Sep), Korea 99.4 (Sep), Australia 99.9 (Aug), US 100.3 (Sep), Indonesia 99.0 (Jun) |
| Asian FX basket vs USD (8 currencies, equal weight) | 95.7 | 2026 14 Oct | +1.5% over 3m | STEADY | +1.5% 3m; worst 3m: KRW +10.3%, TWD -0.0%, INR +1.2%, IDR +1.1%, SGD +1.0%, THB -0.1%, MYR -0.1%, PHP -1.8% |
| Policy rates: Korea, India, Indonesia, China + AU, JP, US | 3.00% | 2026 28 Aug | +50bp over 6m | HEATING | 6m: cut none; hiked KR, ID, JP, AU, US; KR 3.00, IN 5.25, ID 5.75, CN 3.00, JP 1.25, AU 4.60, US 3.88 |
| Hang Seng Index | 24,314 | 2026 14 Oct | -1.0% over 3m | COOLING | -13.1% vs 52-week high |
| US economy, rates & global credit heating 8 · steady 18 · cooling 3 · stress 3 | |||||
| Fed funds & real fed funds | FF 3.88%, real +0.62pp | Aug 2026 | -0.9pp over 1y | STEADY | effective 3.88% (12 Oct); real +0.62pp (Aug 2026); +24bp over 6m |
| US Treasury 2y & 10y | 5.24% | 2026 9 Oct | +68bp over 3m | HEATING | 10y 5.24% (+68bp 3m); 2y 4.80% |
| US 2s10s curve (10y minus 2y) | +0.42 pp | 2026 13 Oct | +1bp over 3m | STEADY | +42bp |
| US 10y real yield (TIPS) & breakeven | 2.91% | 2026 9 Oct | +59bp over 3m | COOLING | real 2.91%, breakeven 2.33% |
| Broad trade-weighted US dollar | 121.6 | 2026 9 Oct | +0.9% over 3m | STEADY | +0.9% 3m, +0.4% 12m |
| SOFR minus IORB (repo funding pressure, bp) | -3 bp | 2026 9 Oct | +7bp over 3m | STEADY | latest -3bp, 5-day avg -1.8bp; ON RRP US$0bn |
| US high-yield & IG corporate spreads (OAS) | 3.11% | 2026 12 Oct | +40bp over 3m | HEATING | HY 3.11%, IG 0.83% (HY at 57th pct of available history) |
| Asia USD corporate & EM high-yield spreads | 0.90% | 2026 12 Oct | +6bp over 3m | STEADY | Asia corp OAS at 32th percentile of trailing 10 years |
| BDC index ETF (BIZD): listed US private-credit proxy | 12.02 US$ | 2026 13 Oct | -6.5% over 3m | STRESS | -20.1% vs 52-week high |
| Chicago Fed NFCI & St Louis stress index | -0.49 | 2026 2 Oct | +0.0 over 3m | HEATING | NFCI -0.49; STLFSI -0.47 |
| VIX | 15.2 | 2026 12 Oct | -2.0 over 1m | STEADY | 15.2 |
| US banks tightening C&I lending standards (net %) | +0.0 net % | Q3 2026 | -9.5 over 1y | STEADY | +0.0 net % tightening |
| US bank C&I loans (y/y) | 10.0% | Sep 2026 | +13.1pp over 1y | COOLING | y/y 10.0%, 3-mo annualised 8.8% (-1.2pp vs y/y) |
| US core PCE & CPI inflation (y/y) | 3.0% | Aug 2026 | -0.2pp over 3m | HEATING | core PCE 3.0%, CPI 3.4% |
| US unemployment rate & Sahm rule | 4.2% | Sep 2026 | -0.2pp over 1y | STEADY | 3-mo avg 4.13%: +0.00pp vs prior-12m low, -0.10pp y/y; FRED SAHMREALTIME 0.00 |
| US initial jobless claims (4-wk avg, '000) | 198 '000 | 2026 3 Oct | -15.4% over 1y | HEATING | 198k (-15.4% y/y) |
| Fed balance sheet (US$tn) | 6.75 US$tn | 2026 7 Oct | +2.4% over 1y | STEADY | US$6.75tn (+2.4% y/y) |
| Brent crude (US$/bbl) | 125.4 US$ | 2026 6 Oct | +87.0% over 1y | HEATING | US$125.4 (+87.0% y/y) |
| US hours worked: average weekly hours & aggregate hours index (private) | 34.4 hrs | Sep 2026 | +0.2 over 1y | STEADY | avg hours 34.4; hours index +0.9% y/y |
| US temporary help services employment (m) | 2.49 m | Sep 2026 | +0.6% over 1y | STEADY | 2.49m (+0.6% y/y) |
| US initial claims (4-wk avg): % above 12-month low | 0.0% | 2026 3 Oct | 4-wk avg 198k | STEADY | 4-wk avg 198k, 0.0% above 12m low |
| US continuing claims (m) | 1.72 m | 2026 26 Sep | -10.7% over 1y | HEATING | 1.72m (-11.0% y/y) |
| US JOLTS hires and quits rates (%) | 3.3% | Aug 2026 | +0.1pp over 1y | COOLING | hires 3.3%, quits 1.9% (Aug 2026); Sahm real-time 0.00 (Sep 2026) |
| US Treasury withheld income & employment taxes (20-day sum, % y/y) | +4.2% | 2026 9 Oct | STEADY | +4.2% y/y vs 1y avg +4.0%, CPI 3.4% | |
| US hires as % of the civilian population (JOLTS) vs labour-force participation | 1.89% | Aug 2026 | +0.0pp over 1y | STEADY | hires 1.89% of population (3m avg 1.90%); participation 61.8% |
| US core PCE vs Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE inflation (y/y %) | 2.19% | Aug 2026 | -0.7pp over 1y | STEADY | trimmed mean 2.19% vs core 3.01% y/y |
| US high-yield OAS vs CCC-and-below OAS (%) | 12.53% | 2026 12 Oct | +284bp over 3m | STRESS | CCC 12.53% vs HY 3.11% |
| US leveraged-loan ETF prices: FLBL and BKLN (US$) | 22.70 US$ | 2026 13 Oct | -1.2% over 3m | STRESS | FLBL $22.70, -6.2% vs 3-month high |
| USD credit to non-banks outside the US (y/y) | 7.3% | Q1 2026 | +2.1pp over 1y | STEADY | +7.3% y/y |
| Credit-to-GDP gaps (BIS, pp) | -9.7 pp | Q1 2026 | +3.8pp over 1y | HEATING | Japan +5.7; China -5.1; Australia -9.7; US -11.3; Korea -15.1; Euro area -17.1 (highest: Japan) |
| Private-sector debt service ratios (BIS, % of income) | 20.3% | Q1 2026 | -0.3pp over 1y | STEADY | AU 20.3% vs 10y avg 19.5%; China 19.1, Japan 15.5, US 13.8, Korea 19.3 |
| Private credit impulse (BIS, % of GDP) | 0.2 % GDP | Q1 2026 | -2.2 over 1y | STEADY | Australia +0.2, US +2.8, Japan +7.0, Korea +0.2 |
| US dollar funding & liquidity heating 2 · steady 6 · cooling 0 · stress 0 | |||||
| Repo vs IORB: SOFR, TGCR and SOFR 99th percentile (bp) | -3 bp | 2026 9 Oct | +7bp over 3m | STEADY | SOFR 3.87%, TGCR 3.85%, BGCR 3.85%; SOFR-IORB 5d -1.8bp, p99 5d +6.2bp |
| Primary dealer Treasury fails (deliver + receive, ex-TIPS, US$bn/week) | 260.0 US$bn | 2026 30 Sep | -18.8% over 1y | HEATING | fails to deliver US$130.7bn + receive US$129.3bn (wk 30 Sep); 4-wk avg 1.7x the 3-yr median |
| Fed overnight repo operations incl. Standing Repo Facility (US$bn/day) | 0.0 US$bn | 2026 13 Oct | +0.0 over 3m | STEADY | latest US$0.0bn; 20-day max US$1.2bn (30 Sep); H.4.1 repo (Wed) US$0.0bn |
| Fed central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (US$bn) | 0.21 US$bn | 2026 7 Oct | +0.2 over 1y | STEADY | US$207m outstanding (peaks: US$583bn Dec-2008, US$449bn May-2020) |
| Discount window: primary & secondary credit (US$bn) | 9.96 US$bn | 2026 7 Oct | +2.8 over 1y | HEATING | primary US$9.96bn (3-yr median 4.69bn); secondary US$0m |
| Near-term forward spread: 3m rate 18m ahead minus 3m bill (bp) | +85 bp | 2026 9 Oct | +50bp over 3m | STEADY | +85bp (09 Oct); 18m-ahead 3m forward 5.10% |
| US Treasury curve: 10y-3m and 10y-2y (pp) | +0.95 pp | 2026 13 Oct | +22bp over 3m | STEADY | 10y-3m +0.95pp, 10y-2y +0.42pp (13 Oct) |
| Copper/gold ratio (x1000) vs US 10y yield | 1.62 ratio | 2026 14 Oct | +35.1% over 1y | STEADY | 1.62 (copper US$6.73/lb, gold US$4,166/oz); +3.9% over 3m |
| Credit risks: where the spend is going heating 7 · steady 3 · cooling 1 · stress 0 | |||||
| How fast is US data-centre and power construction growing? ($bn, annual rate) | 85 $bn | Aug 2026 | +73.2% over 1y | HEATING | data centres $85bn SAAR, +73% y/y |
| Is US electricity demand rising with the data-centre build? (12-month sales, % y/y) | +3.1% | Jul 2026 | all sectors +1.2% | HEATING | commercial +3.1% y/y, all sectors +1.2% |
| Is US chip production keeping up? Semiconductor output (index 2017=100) | 190.1 | Aug 2026 | +12.4% over 1y | HEATING | 190.1 (+12.4% y/y) |
| How much of their operating cash are the big five spending on capex? (TTM capex ÷ OCF, %) | 82% | Q2 2026 | +21.0pp over 1y | HEATING | 82% (Q2 2026); free cash flow $126bn TTM |
| Are investors being paid for credit risk? US corporate spreads by rating (bp) | 102 bp | 2026 12 Oct | +5bp over 3m | STEADY | BBB 102bp, 39th percentile of 3 years |
| Is stress building in the weakest borrowers? CCC minus BB spread (bp) | 1065 bp | 2026 12 Oct | +258bp over 3m | STEADY | 1065bp vs 3-year median 717bp |
| Are banks funding private credit? US bank loans to non-bank financial institutions (% y/y) | +19.5% | 2026 30 Sep | -35.6pp over 1y | HEATING | +19.5% y/y; level $2.08tn |
| Are private-credit loans being marked down? BDC portfolios: fair value as % of cost | 98.9% | Q2 2026 | latest 10-Q | STEADY | median 98.9%; Ares Capital 98.9%, Blue Owl Capital Corp 99.0%, Blackstone Secured Lending 96.4%, FS KKR 90.6%, Main Street 115.5% |
| Do investors believe BDC valuations? Share price as % of last reported NAV | 93% | 2026 13 Oct | -2.7pp over 1y | COOLING | median 93% of NAV (2026 13 Oct) |
| Is Australian business investment growing? Private new capex, chain volume (A$bn/qtr) | 51.0 A$bn | Q2 2026 | +10.7% over 1y | HEATING | A$51.0bn (+10.7% y/y) |
| Which Australian industries are borrowing fastest? Bank business credit by industry (% y/y) | +22.6% | Aug 2026 | +6.2pp over 1y | HEATING | financial & insurance +22.6% y/y |
Australia
Australia: economy, prices & rates 48 charts
10heating 23steady 9cooling 2stress
Labour market
Unemployment rateCOOLING
4.6% +0.4pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: The single best real-time read on whether high real rates are cracking household cash flow (and mortgage arrears).
Rule & sources
Rule: Stress if 3-mo avg >= 0.5pp above its low of the prior 12 months (Sahm-style); else cooling if 3-mo avg up >= 0.2pp y/y; heating if down >= 0.2pp y/y; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table H5: GLFSURSA, GLFSURTR
6.2% +0.5pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Spare capacity beyond the headline rate: hours slack shows up before job losses.
Rule & sources
Rule: Cooling if underemployment rate up >= 0.3pp y/y; heating if down >= 0.3pp; otherwise steady.
Source: ABS Data API (LF_UNDER,1.0.1): M23+M24.3.1599.20.AUS.M
10.8% +1.1pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Youth jobs are the marginal hire: they turn first when firms freeze hiring.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Cooling if up >= 1pp y/y; heating if down >= 1pp y/y; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Noisy monthly series (small sample).
Source: ABS Data API (LF_UNDER,1.0.1): M13.3.1524.20.AUS.M
1.0% -0.3pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Hours are the volume of labour actually used; falling hours with steady jobs is an early slowdown sign.
Rule & sources
Rule: Trend hours y/y: heating > 2.5%; cooling < 0.5%; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table H5: GLFMHWTRYP, GLFSEPTSYP
63.9% -0.1pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Captures jobs relative to a fast-growing population (avoids flattering by migration).
Rule & sources
Rule: Cooling if down >= 0.3pp y/y; heating if up >= 0.3pp y/y; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table H5: GLFSEPTPOP, GLFSPRSA
Job vacancies ('000)STEADY
325 '000 -1.4% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Labour demand: vacancies fall before unemployment rises.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Vacancies y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: ABS Job Vacancies survey; quarterly, dated to the middle month of the quarter.
Source: RBA table H5: GLFOSVT, GLFOSVTLF
Wage Price Index (y/y)STEADY
3.2% -0.2pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Wage growth vs mortgage rates determines whether borrowers' real debt burden is easing.
Rule & sources
Rule: Heating > 3.5%; cooling < 2.5%; otherwise steady (RBA consistent range roughly 3-3.5%).
Source: RBA table H4: GWPIYP, GWPIPRIYP
3.5% -1.2pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Weak productivity keeps unit labour costs (and so core inflation) sticky, which keeps real rates high.
Rule & sources
Rule: Non-farm ULC y/y: heating > 4%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table H4: GNFULCYP, GNFPROSQP
Inflation
Trimmed mean CPI (y/y)HEATING
3.6% +0.1pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Core inflation sets the RBA path and hence the real cash rate borrowers face.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating > 3%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady (RBA target band 2-3%).
Caveat: ABS complete monthly CPI only starts Apr-2025; longer history uses the quarterly series (not spliced).
Source: ABS Data API (CPI,2.0.0): 3.{999902|10001}.{20|10}.50.M; RBA table G1: GCPIOCPMTMYP
Headline CPI (y/y)HEATING
4.0% +0.0pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Headline drives inflation expectations and indexation of rents/wages.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating > 3%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Electricity rebates distort headline in 2024-26.
Source: ABS Data API (CPI,2.0.0): 3.{999902|10001}.{20|10}.50.M; RBA table G1: GCPIAGYP
3.7% +0.0pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Services inflation is domestic and labour-driven: the part the RBA can't import away.
Rule & sources
Rule: Services y/y: heating > 4%; cooling < 2.5%; otherwise steady.
Source: ABS Data API (CPI,2.0.0): 3.104104+104101.10.50.M; RBA table G1: GCPINTIYP, GCPITIYP
3.6% +0.0pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Rents feed directly from housing undersupply; insurance and power are the cost-of-living pinch points.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Rents y/y: heating > 5%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Electricity y/y heavily affected by government rebate timing.
Source: ABS Data API (CPI,2.0.0): 3.115522+115528+40055.10.50.M
4.9% +0.2pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Elevated expectations make the RBA slower to cut, keeping real rates high.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating > 5%; cooling < 3.5%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Melbourne Institute survey; median-based, structurally above actual inflation.
Source: RBA table G3: GCONEXP
Rates, credit & funding
Cash 4.60% (2026 13 Oct) +0.2pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Core of the thesis: a positive real cash rate is what squeezes credit-financed assets.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Real cash rate (cash target minus latest trimmed-mean y/y): cooling (restrictive) if > 1pp; heating (stimulatory) if < 0; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Real rate uses quarterly trimmed mean before Apr-2025 and monthly after; points only where inflation is observed (no interpolation).
Source: RBA table F1: FIRMMCRTD; RBA table G1: GCPIOCPMTMYP; ABS Data API (CPI,2.0.0): 3.999902.20.50.M
AGS 3y & 10y yieldsHEATING
4.93% +51bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: The 3y prices the RBA path (and fixed mortgage rates); the 10y links Australia to global term premia.
Rule & sources
Rule: 3y yield 3-month change: heating if >= +40bp (market pricing tighter policy); cooling if <= -40bp; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table F2: FCMYGBAG3D, FCMYGBAG10D
AGS 10y-3y curveSTEADY
+0.47 pp +4bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: An inverted curve says markets expect policy to be cut as growth weakens.
Rule & sources
Rule: Cooling if inverted (< 0); heating if > 1.25pp (steep, reflationary); otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table F2: FCMYGBAG3D, FCMYGBAG10D
3.00% +48bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Real long rates discount every asset: high real yields pressure property and leveraged valuations.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Cooling (restrictive) if > 2%; heating if < 1%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: RBA 'indexed bond' series (approx. 10y target tenor).
Source: RBA table F2: FCMYGBAGID
+0.16 pp +4bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Bank funding pressure passes straight into business and non-bank lending rates.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Stress if > 0.40pp; cooling (market pricing cuts) if < -0.20pp; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Proxy for BBSW-OIS: RBA stopped publishing OIS rates in Dec-2022, so the spread also embeds expected cash-rate moves over 3 months.
Source: RBA table F1: FIRMMBAB90D, FIRMMCRTD
1.09 pp +14bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Corporate credit spreads show whether investors are demanding more to lend to Australian business.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Percentile of trailing 10 years: stress >= 90th; cooling 70-90th (credit tightening); heating <= 20th (very tight spreads = easy credit); otherwise steady.
Caveat: Spread computed by subtracting monthly 5y AGS yield from RBA BBB non-financial corporate 5y yield.
Source: RBA table F3: FNFYBBB5M; RBA table F2.1: FCMYGBAG5
Housing credit growth (y/y)COOLING
7.3% +1.2pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Housing credit is ~60% of private credit: its pace is the pulse of the leveraged-household thesis.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating if y/y > 10% or 3-mo annualised growth exceeds y/y by > 1pp (accelerating); cooling if 3-mo annualised is > 1pp below y/y (decelerating); otherwise steady.
Caveat: RBA D1 growth rates are break-adjusted.
Source: RBA table D1: DGFACH12, DGFACHM
9.6% +2.6pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Investor credit is the speculative, rate-sensitive margin of the housing market.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating if y/y > 10% or 3-mo annualised growth exceeds y/y by > 1pp (accelerating); cooling if 3-mo annualised is > 1pp below y/y (decelerating); otherwise steady.
Caveat: RBA D1 growth rates are break-adjusted.
Source: RBA table D1: DGFACIH12, DGFACIHM
Business credit growth (y/y)HEATING
10.9% +1.1pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Business credit includes lending to non-bank lenders and property; fast growth late in a cycle is a risk flag.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating if y/y > 10% or 3-mo annualised growth exceeds y/y by > 1pp (accelerating); cooling if 3-mo annualised is > 1pp below y/y (decelerating); otherwise steady.
Caveat: RBA D1 growth rates are break-adjusted.
Source: RBA table D1: DGFACBNF12, DGFACBNFM
6.20% +70bp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Mortgage rate minus core inflation = the real burden on the household balance sheet.
Rule & sources
Rule: Real mortgage rate (outstanding owner-occupier variable minus trimmed-mean y/y): cooling (restrictive) if > 3pp; heating if < 1pp; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table F6: FLRHOOVA, FLRHOFVA, FLRHIOVA
Total business finance 11.9% y/y +1.5pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Shows whether new business credit funds productive capacity or property/financial intermediaries (incl. private credit funds).
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: RBA D14.1 is NSA and not break-adjusted; 'Financial & insurance' includes lending to non-bank financiers/funds.
Source: RBA table D14.1: industry series (via ../credit-growth-au); RBA table D14: DLBOST+DLBOMT+DLBOLT
97.6 A$bn +6.8% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: New lending is the flow that sets house prices at the margin.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Total value y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Total dwellings excluding refinancing; seasonally adjusted; ABS publishes this series quarterly.
Source: ABS Data API (LEND_HOUSING): FIN_VAL.NEWCOMMITS.*.TOTDWELL.TOT.TOT+DV5167+DV5168.20.AUS.Q
10.7% +3.8pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Rising non-bank share means more housing risk sits outside APRA's prudential perimeter.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating if share up >= 1pp y/y (non-bank lending gaining share); cooling if down >= 1pp; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Seasonally adjusted values, dwellings excluding refinancing; ABS non-ADI coverage is registered financial corporations reporting to APRA, not all private credit.
Source: ABS Data API (LEND_HOUSING): FIN_VAL.NEWCOMMITS.*.TOTDWELL.NON_ADI+TOT.TOT.20.AUS.Q
Housing
6.8% -3.2pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Housing is the dominant collateral in the Australian credit system.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating > 7% y/y; steady 0-7%; cooling -5% to 0; stress < -5%.
Caveat: ABS quarterly with ~3-month lag; monthly Cotality index is not free (see au_housing_outlook.md for its latest prints).
Source: ABS Data API (RES_DWELL_ST,1.0.0): 5.AUS (mean price $'000)
17.9 '000 +4.7% over 6m
Why it matters for Australia: Approvals lead construction activity and the developer finance pipeline (where private credit is exposed).
Rule & sources
Rule: Trend, 6-month change: heating > +5%; cooling < -5%; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table H3: GISPSDA, GISDWPRITR
204 '000 +13.2% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Supply response: weak starts keep rents/prices firm but signal developer stress.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Commencements 4-qtr sum y/y: heating > +5%; cooling < -5%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Total residential, total sectors; ABS quarterly with ~3-month lag. Under construction is original series.
Source: ABS Data API (BUILDING_ACTIVITY): M6+M7+M8.AUS..TOT/1.9.100.{20|10}.Q
Activity & stress
6.8% +2.1pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Consumption is ~half of GDP; discretionary spending is where rate pain shows first.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Approx. real growth (HSI y/y minus monthly CPI y/y): heating > 3%; cooling < 0.5%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Nominal; real approximation subtracts headline monthly CPI (crude deflator).
Source: ABS Data API (HSI_M,1.6.0): 9.TOT+3+4.CUR.20.AUS.M
Household saving ratioSTEADY
6.5% +0.6pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: A thin saving buffer leaves households less able to absorb high rates; a jump signals precautionary retrenchment.
Rule & sources
Rule: Cooling if up >= 1pp y/y (precautionary saving); heating if down >= 1pp y/y; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table H2: GGDPICHDISR
0.7% +0.3pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Per-capita GDP strips out population growth: the 'per-capita recession' test.
Rule & sources
Rule: GDP per capita y/y: cooling < 0%; heating > 2%; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table H1: GGDPCVGDPY, GGDPCVGDPFY
NAB business conditionsCOOLING
-4.0 net bal. -3.8 over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Business conditions lead hiring and investment.
80.4 -3.5 over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Sentiment below 100 = pessimists outnumber optimists; deep lows often coincide with rate stress.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating > 100; cooling < 90; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Latest point is the October 2026 survey (fieldwork 28 Sep-1 Oct, released 7 Oct; straddles the 30 Sep RBA hike). RBA stamps it 31 Oct. Verified against Westpac's release: 80.4, down from 84.4.
Source: RBA table H3: GICWMICS
1808 count/mo 3-mo sum +16% y/y
Why it matters for Australia: Insolvencies are where high real rates and private-credit refinancing stress become visible.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 3-month sum y/y: stress > +25%; cooling +5% to +25%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Partial latest month dropped (data to 2026 27 Sep). Aug-2026 construction includes 542 entities of one group (Bathla) entering administration together.
Source: ASIC insolvency statistics Series 1 & 2 (xlsx): Series 1: companies entering external administration
External & commodities
Terms of trade (index)STEADY
94.8 -0.5% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Export prices vs import prices: the main channel from China's demand to Australian national income and the budget.
Rule & sources
Rule: y/y: heating > +5%; cooling < -5%; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table H1: GOPITT
-3.7 % GDP -1.3 over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: A widening deficit means more reliance on foreign capital (and sensitivity to global funding costs).
106.6 +6.6% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Commodity prices in A$ drive mining profits, tax receipts and the AUD.
Rule & sources
Rule: A$ index y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table I2: GRCPAIAD, GRCPAIUSD
Iron ore (US$/t)STEADY
98 US$ -5.4% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Australia's largest export; priced off Chinese steel demand.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Monthly average prices.
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (CMO historical monthly): Iron ore, cfr spot
147 US$ +38.4% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Coal exports go mostly to Japan, China, Korea, India and Taiwan.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Monthly average prices.
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (CMO historical monthly): Coal, Australian
14.25 US$ +24.2% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: LNG is a top-3 export; Japan/Korea/China are the buyers.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Monthly average prices.
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (CMO historical monthly): Liquefied natural gas, Japan
Gold (US$/oz)HEATING
4,319 US$ +17.7% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Gold is now a top-3 Australian export and a hedge against real-rate/USD shocks.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < -10%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Monthly average prices.
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (CMO historical monthly): Gold
0.7002 US$ +0.3% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: The AUD is the shock absorber: it falls when China/commodities or global risk appetite weaken.
Rule & sources
Rule: TWI 3-month change: stress if <= -5% (risk-off); heating if >= +5%; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRUSD, FXRTWI
AUD/CNY 4.686, AUD/JPY 110.74 -0.9% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: AUD/CNY tracks export competitiveness into China; AUD/JPY is the classic carry/risk barometer.
35.2% +1.8pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Concentration risk: roughly a third of goods exports go to one economy.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Goods only, A$ values; 12-month rolling sums.
Source: ABS Data API (MERCH_EXP): TOT.CHIN+TOT+JAP+RKOR+INIA.TOT.M
Financial stress
1.620 A$ -10.0% over 1m
Why it matters for Australia: Discounts to NTA on listed private-credit vehicles are the market's live read on loan-book quality.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Worst discount to latest NTA: stress if > 10%; cooling if 5-10%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: NTAs are MANUAL inputs: audited 30-Jun-2026 values (MXT 1.9617, MOT 1.9346, MRE 2.22) after audit write-downs announced 28 Sep; units were suspended 28 Sep to 5 Oct. NTA is ~3 months old, and monthly NTA reporting resumes, so update MANUAL_NTA. Prices from unofficial Yahoo endpoint.
Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): MXT.AX, MOT.AX, MRE.AX; Manual input: audited NTA per unit at 2026 30 Jun (ASX announcements, 2026 28 Sep – 5 Oct): MANUAL_NTA in indicators.py
ASX 200 and financialsSTEADY
8,728 -0.8% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Bank and broad-equity drawdowns tighten financial conditions and wealth effects.
Rule & sources
Rule: ASX 200: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.
Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): ^AXJO, ^AXFJ
ASX 200 A-REITsSTRESS
3,267 -8.8% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Listed property is the most rate-sensitive equity sector and marks commercial property in real time.
Rule & sources
Rule: A-REIT index: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.
Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): ^AXRE
Australia: RBA Chart Pack highlights 9 charts
Selected indicators from the RBA Chart Pack that aren't shown elsewhere on this dashboard, rebuilt from the RBA's public statistical tables (and FRED for US Treasuries). Each card's Takeaway is written from the latest values.
0heating 2steady 2cooling 0stress
Household balance sheet
178.4% +1.5pp over 1y
Takeaway: Household debt is 178% of annual disposable income (Q2 2026), housing debt 135%; down 9pp from the post-2015 peak of 188% (Q2 2018).
Why it matters for Australia: Australian households carry some of the highest debt loads in the world; the ratio sets how hard each rate move bites.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Full E2 history from 1988 (quarterly, annualised income); no splice. Series revised with ABS national accounts benchmarks.
Source: RBA table E2: BHFDDIT, BHFDDIH
16.1% -0.3pp over 1y
Takeaway: Debt is 16.1% of household assets and housing debt 21.9% of housing assets: housing gearing is below its post-2010 average (25.5%).
Why it matters for Australia: Gearing shows how much equity cushion sits under household debt if house prices fall.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Full E2 history from Sep 1988; dotted line = housing gearing average since 1988.
Source: RBA table E2: BHFDA, BHFHDHA
9.4% -0.5pp over 1y
Takeaway: Scheduled mortgage repayments take 9.4% of disposable income (Q1 2026), of which interest 6.0%; borrowers are still paying an extra 2.3% ahead of schedule, and 56% of loans have an offset account.
Why it matters for Australia: The household debt-servicing ratio: the share of income committed to mortgages, the main channel of monetary policy.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Scheduled repayments vs 10-year average: cooling (restrictive) if >= 1pp above; heating if >= 1pp below; otherwise steady.
Caveat: E13 starts Mar 2009 (short by nature: built from post-GFC lender data; no earlier RBA table on this definition). Offset-account share starts Sep 2019.
Source: RBA table E13: LPHTSPRI, LPHTICRI, LPHTEXRI, HSHTOF
Lending rates vs the cash rate
7.47% +57bp over 1y
Takeaway: Small businesses pay 7.47% on outstanding loans vs 5.75% for large firms (Aug 2026): a 172bp size premium, with the cash rate at 4.35% that month.
Why it matters for Australia: Small firms pay well above large ones; that premium is how tight policy reaches the SME and non-bank lending market.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Break: F7 size-based rates (EFS collection) start Jul 2019 and are short by nature; earlier history uses the older F5 weighted-average variable rates (small business from Dec 1993, large from 1978), a different definition, shown as thin lines and not spliced. Cash rate: F1.1 target from Aug 1990, interbank overnight rate before.
Source: RBA table F7: FLRBFOSBT, FLRBFOMBT, FLRBFOLBT; RBA table F5: FILRSBVWA, FILRLBWAV; RBA table F1.1: FIRMMCRT, FIRMMCRI; RBA table F1: FIRMMCRTD
1.85 pp -5bp over 1y
Takeaway: New variable mortgages are priced 1.85pp over the cash rate (Aug 2026), narrower than the 2.53pp pre-COVID average; new small-business loans 2.88pp.
Why it matters for Australia: Spreads over the cash rate show whether banks are passing on policy fully, or competing margins away.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Break: F6/F7 new-loan rates (EFS) start Jul 2019 (short by nature). Longer context is the F5 banks' standard variable housing indicator rate minus the cash rate (from 1990), a headline rather than actual-paid rate, so not spliced.
Source: RBA table F6: FLRHOFVA; RBA table F5: FILRHLBVS; RBA table F1.1: FIRMMCRT, FIRMMCRI; RBA table F7: FLRBFNSBT, FLRBFNLBT; RBA table F1: FIRMMCRTD
Money & markets
6.9% +0.1pp over 1y
Takeaway: Broad money is growing 6.9% a year and M1 6.5% (Aug 2026).
Why it matters for Australia: Deposits are the other side of bank lending; M1 (transaction balances) swings with rates as savers shift to term deposits.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Broad money y/y: heating > 9%; cooling < 4%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Full D3 history (broad money from Aug 1976, M1 from 1975). Growth is from levels, not break-adjusted: reclassifications (e.g. 1980s bank/NBFI conversions, 2019 EFS) cause jumps. Dotted line = broad-money average since 1977.
Source: RBA table D3: DMABMS, DMAM1S
0.16 pp -2bp over 1y
Takeaway: AGS 10y 5.40% vs US 10y 5.28%: Australia yields +12bp over Treasuries (2026 7 Oct), vs a 10-year average of +3bp.
Why it matters for Australia: A positive AU-US spread pulls in foreign capital and supports the AUD; it also tells you whether local long rates are being set offshore.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Spliced: F2 historical table (f02histhist, month-end, Jul 1969-Apr 2013) + current F2 daily from May 2013 taken at month-end; same 10y benchmark definition. US: FRED DGS10 month-end. Dotted line = average since 1969.
Source: RBA table F2: FCMYGBAG10D; RBA historical table F2 (1969-2013): FCMYGBAG10; FRED (St Louis Fed): DGS10
Inflation & wages
-0.7 pp -2.0pp over 1y
Takeaway: Wages rose 3.2% against 3.9% inflation over the year to Q2 2026: real wages down 0.7%.
Why it matters for Australia: Real wages decide whether households can grow out of their debt; they fell sharply in 2022-23.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating > +1.5pp; cooling < 0; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Starts Sep 1998: the ABS Wage Price Index begins in 1997 (first y/y 1998), so this is short by nature; CPI (G1) goes back to 1923.
Source: RBA table H4: GWPIYP; RBA table G1: GCPIAGYP
2.5% -0.1pp over 1y
Takeaway: Economists expect 2.5% inflation in two years, unions 3.4%, and bond markets price 2.4% over ten years (Q3 2026): inside the 2-3% target band.
Why it matters for Australia: If 2-year and 10-year expectations stay near 2.5%, the RBA can look through one-off price shocks.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Market economists 2y ahead: heating > 3%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Full G3 history: economists' survey from 1994, union officials from 1997; the 10y break-even series in G3 starts 2015 (short by nature). No splice.
Source: RBA table G3: GMAREXPYY, GUNIEXPYY, GBONYLD
Australia: funding & liquidity 8 charts
How the Australian dollar money market is working: the overnight cash market, the RBA's open market operations, banks' Exchange Settlement (ES) balances, the Term Funding Facility run-off and bank bill funding spreads, rebuilt from the RBA's public statistical tables (F1, A1, A2, A3). Each card's Takeaway is written from the latest values.
0heating 0steady 0cooling 0stress
Overnight cash market
1,229 $m -378.2 over 1y
Takeaway: About $1.2b a day now trades in the overnight cash market (2026 13 Oct, 20-day average), well below the 2019 average of $3.9b: banks still hold ample reserves, so few need to borrow overnight.
Why it matters for Australia: When the RBA floods banks with reserves they no longer need to borrow overnight from each other, so the cash market shrinks.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: RBA publishes cash market volumes only from 2013 20 May (F1, short by nature).
Source: RBA F1 Money market (daily): FIRMMCRIV
+0 bp +0bp over 1y
Takeaway: The cash rate is 4.60% vs a 4.60% target (+0bp, 2026 13 Oct), sitting close to the floor (floor -10bp, ceiling +25bp): the hallmark of an ample-reserves system.
Why it matters for Australia: Where the cash rate sits between the ES deposit rate (floor) and the standing-facility repo rate (ceiling) shows whether reserves are scarce or ample.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Corridor from A2 administered rates (ES rate and standing-facility overnight repo rate) applied as step functions; daily cash rate spliced from the F1 historical xls (to 2010) and current F1 (2011+).
Source: RBA F1 / F1 historical (daily): FIRMMCRID, FIRMMCRTD; RBA A2 Administered rates: ARBAMPNRPESB, ARBAMPNORR
RBA open market operations
46.3 $b +14.7 over 1y
Takeaway: Banks have $46.3b of repo outstanding with the RBA (2026 13 Oct); over the last four weeks $27.3b was dealt at around 1 month and $0.0b at longer terms, vs $11.5b at a week or less.
Why it matters for Australia: Banks now get most of their marginal reserves by borrowing from the RBA at its weekly full-allotment repo operations rather than from each other.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: A3 operations data start Nov 2013. Term buckets are grouped by the term of each transaction; outstanding = OMO reverse repo + triparty reverse repo (outright bond purchases excluded).
Source: RBA A3 ES balances and repo agreements: AORROMO, AORROMOTRI; RBA A3 OMO repo transaction details: AFROMOTD, AFROMOVD
+10 bp +0bp over 1y
Takeaway: RBA repo at up to 1 week averaged +10bp over the cash rate target in Oct 2026; 8-45 days (incl. 1-month) +10bp (the RBA's full-allotment repo price), versus close to zero before 2020.
Why it matters for Australia: The price of RBA repo relative to the cash rate shows how much banks pay up for reserves; it rose as the RBA moved to a full-allotment system.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Value-weighted average across dealt repos: fixed-rate deals as rate minus the cash rate target on the deal date; floating-rate deals (the norm since Feb 2024) use the published spread to the cash rate target. Grouped by term bucket.
Source: RBA A3 OMO repo transaction details: AFROMOWAR, AFROMOVD, AFROMOTD; RBA F1 Money market (daily): FIRMMCRTD
Reserves, TFF and standing facility
196 $b -7.6 over 1y
Takeaway: Banks hold $196b in ES balances (2026 7 Oct), down from the $473b peak (Feb 2023) but far above the roughly $29b of 2019.
Why it matters for Australia: ES balances are banks' reserves at the RBA; their surge after 2020 (bond buying and the TFF) is why the cash market went quiet.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Weekly A1 from Jul 2013, extended back to Jun 1994 with the RBA's historical A1 summary (same series ID).
Source: RBA A1 Balance sheet (weekly): ARBALESBW; RBA A1 historical summary 1994-2023: ARBALESBW
7.7 $b -170.1 over 1y
Takeaway: The TFF has fully run off: the last $7.7b was outstanding on 2024 26 Jun, down from a $188b peak (Jun 2021), and the RBA has published no balance since.
Why it matters for Australia: The TFF lent banks about $188b of cheap three-year money in 2020-21; its run-off forced banks to replace it with market funding and RBA repo.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Facility opened Apr 2020; drawdowns closed Jun 2021 and all funding matured by mid-2024 (short by nature).
Source: RBA A3 Term Funding Facility: ATFFOTD
0 $m +0.0 over 1y
Takeaway: Overnight standing-facility borrowing at the ceiling rate was $0m on 2026 13 Oct and was used on 12 of the last 250 business days, averaging $175m (max $525m) when used: no sign of system-wide stress. Separately, $4.2b of open (intraday-liquidity) repo sits at the ES rate.
Why it matters for Australia: Banks borrowing overnight from the RBA at the penalty (ceiling) rate signals an individual bank could not find cash in the market.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: 'SF repos at margin' = standing-facility repos at the cash rate target plus margin; open repos at the ES rate (for RITS intraday liquidity) are reported separately and noted in the takeaway.
Source: RBA A3 ES balances and repo agreements: AORRLFPR, AORRLFCRT
Bank bill funding spreads
+17 bp +18bp over 1y
Takeaway: 3m BBSW is +17bp over the cash rate target and 1m -3bp (2026 13 Oct); the last published 3m BBSW-OIS spread was +2bp (Dec 2022) vs a GFC peak of +87bp.
Why it matters for Australia: BBSW over OIS strips out rate expectations to show pure bank credit and liquidity stress (GFC, 2020); after OIS data ends the gap to the cash rate target also reflects expected rate moves.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: 5-day averages. RBA OIS (F1) runs Jul 2001 to 2022 1 Dec only; after that only the BBSW minus cash rate target proxy is available (it embeds expected cash-rate changes). Bank bill rates spliced from F1 historical xls.
Source: RBA F1 / F1 historical (daily): FIRMMBAB30D, FIRMMBAB90D, FIRMMOIS1D, FIRMMOIS3D, FIRMMCRTD
Asia
China 12 charts
2heating 7steady 1cooling 2stress
Credit & property
0.9 % GDP +1.6pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: China's credit impulse has historically led its steel and construction demand, i.e. Australian iron ore volumes and prices, by 6-12 months.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 4-quarter change in 4-quarter credit flow as % of GDP: heating > +1pp; cooling < -1pp; otherwise steady. Rule applied to total non-financial sector (incl. government).
Caveat: Derived: GDP implied from BIS credit level / credit-to-GDP ratio. Proxy for TSF-based impulse (PBoC TSF not used). BIS data lag ~2 quarters.
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_TC): Q.CN.C+P.A.M.XDC+770.A
-24.8% -2.2pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Chinese housing construction is the single biggest end-use of Australian iron ore.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: New starts (floor space, YTD y/y): stress < -15%; cooling -15% to 0; heating > +5%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Year-to-date cumulative growth rates; only releases since ~Aug-2025 parse fully.
Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): Investment in Real Estate Development releases
-3.3% +0.4pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Falling prices erode household wealth and developer collateral, the core of China's credit drag.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Stress < -3%; cooling -3% to 0; steady 0 to +3%; heating > +3%.
Caveat: Simple average across cities of NBS Table I indices (computed here; NBS does not publish a national average).
Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): 70 city table I (new commercial residential)
Activity
NBS manufacturing PMISTEADY
50.1 -0.2 over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Factory momentum = steel, copper and energy demand from Australia's largest customer.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating >= 50.5; cooling < 49.5; otherwise steady (50 = no change).
Caveat: Parsed from NBS English releases; history limited to ~2 years of press releases. Caixin/S&P PMI is proprietary (not used).
Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): Manufacturing PMI, new orders, non-manufacturing PMI
50.2 +0.0 over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Services/construction activity: the domestic-demand side of China's rebalancing.
Rule & sources
Rule: Heating >= 50.5; cooling < 49.5; otherwise steady (50 = no change).
Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): Non-manufacturing business activity index
5.2% +0.7pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Supply (industry) vs demand (consumers): China's growth mix and its pull on Australian resources.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Industrial production y/y: heating > 6%; cooling < 4%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Jan/Feb combined by NBS (no January print).
Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): Industrial production, retail sales releases
Exports (US$, 3-mo y/y)HEATING
25.2% +13.3pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Export strength props up Chinese industry (and steel demand) while property is weak.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 3-month sum of USD exports, y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < 0%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Verified vs China GAC: Aug-2026 exports US$401.44bn, +25.0% y/y in USD terms (+18.6% in CNY).
Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_IMTS@DF_IMTS): CHN.W.X.C.M.USD_EXC.N.N
Prices
CPI (y/y)STEADY
0.8% -0.4pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Low Chinese inflation exports disinflation (cheap goods) to Australia but signals weak domestic demand.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Cooling if < 0% (deflation); heating if > 2.5%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: BIS series with NBS release values where more recent.
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_LONG_CPI): M.CN.771; China NBS English press releases (scraped): CPI release
Producer prices (y/y)HEATING
3.8% -0.1pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: PPI tracks industrial pricing power; it moves with iron ore and coal prices.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating > +2%; cooling < -1%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Only releases from Aug-2025 parse cleanly from NBS text (short history).
Source: China NBS English press releases (scraped): PPI release
Markets
1.69% -15bp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Record-low CGB yields signal deflationary pressure and weak credit demand.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 12-month change: cooling if <= -0.4pp; heating if >= +0.4pp; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Monthly average via OECD (lags ~1-2 months).
Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_STES@DF_FINMARK): CHN.M.IRLT.PA.....
USD/CNYSTEADY
6.6917 CNY -1.2% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: A weaker yuan exports deflation and usually coincides with softer commodity demand.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 3-month change: stress if CNY weakens > 3%; heating if CNY strengthens > 3%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Cross rate derived from RBA 4pm AEST AUD rates.
Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRCR / FXRUSD (cross)
8,183 +0.6% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Chinese equity stress tends to spill into the AUD and Australian miners.
Rule & sources
Rule: HSCEI: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.
Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): 000001.SS, ^HSCE
Japan 10 charts
2heating 7steady 0cooling 1stress
Rates & yen
BoJ policy rateHEATING
1.25% +0.8pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Each BoJ hike raises the cost of yen funding, the world's cheapest carry-trade leg.
Rule & sources
Rule: 12-month change: heating (tightening) if >= +0.25pp; cooling (easing) if <= -0.25pp; otherwise steady.
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_CBPOL): D.JP
JGB 2y & 10y yieldsHEATING
3.019% +30bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Higher JGB yields pull Japanese savings home, removing a big buyer of Australian and global bonds.
Rule & sources
Rule: 10y, 3-month change: heating if >= +20bp; cooling if <= -20bp; otherwise steady.
Source: Japan MOF JGB interest rates: jgbcme_all.csv + jgbcme.csv
JGB 30y yieldSTEADY
4.064% +20bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Super-long JGBs are where fiscal/term-premium stress shows; spikes have hit global duration.
Rule & sources
Rule: Stress if 1-month change >= +40bp; heating if 3-month change >= +25bp; cooling if 3-month change <= -25bp; otherwise steady.
Source: Japan MOF JGB interest rates: jgbcme_all.csv + jgbcme.csv
USD/JPYSTEADY
158.15 JPY +1.6% over 1m
Why it matters for Australia: A sharp yen rally signals carry-trade unwinding, which has historically hit AUD and risk assets together.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Stress if yen strengthens >= 5% in 1 month (USD/JPY falls >= 5%); heating if yen weakens >= 5% over 3 months (carry building); otherwise steady.
Caveat: Cross rate derived from RBA 4pm AEST AUD rates.
Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRJY / FXRUSD (cross)
AUD/JPYSTEADY
110.74 JPY +0.1% over 1m
Why it matters for Australia: AUD/JPY is the purest carry-trade gauge for Australia: high-yielder vs funder.
Rule & sources
Rule: Stress if 1-month change <= -5%; heating if 3-month change >= +5%; otherwise steady.
Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRJY
Economy & flows
Japan CPI (y/y)STEADY
1.9% +0.6pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Sustained inflation is what lets the BoJ keep hiking (and JGB yields keep rising).
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating > 2.5%; cooling < 1.5%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: BIS headline CPI (OECD/FRED Japan CPI series are stale); wages/shunto data need e-Stat API key (not used).
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_LONG_CPI): M.JP.771
-1.8 ¥tn latest week -0.35tn
Why it matters for Australia: Japanese investors are major holders of Australian and US bonds; repatriation lifts global yields.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Percentile of trailing 10 years: stress <= 10th (heavy repatriation); heating >= 90th (heavy foreign buying); otherwise steady.
Caveat: Weekly designated-investor reports (MOF); sum of 13 weeks; units ¥ trillion (source 100m yen).
Source: Japan MOF International Transactions in Securities (weekly): week.csv
-3.2 ¥tn latest week equities +2.19tn
Why it matters for Australia: Foreign flows into Japan are a read on global risk appetite towards Asia.
Rule & sources
Rule: Equities, percentile of trailing 10 years: stress <= 10th; heating >= 90th; otherwise steady.
Source: Japan MOF International Transactions in Securities (weekly): week.csv
Nikkei 225STEADY
67,744 +5.6% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Japanese equity drawdowns often coincide with yen-carry unwinds.
Rule & sources
Rule: Nikkei 225: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.
Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): ^N225
9.8% +4.6pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Japanese exports track the Asian manufacturing cycle that Australian LNG and coal feed.
Rule & sources
Rule: 3-month sum of USD exports, y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < 0%; otherwise steady.
Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_IMTS@DF_IMTS): JPN.W.X.C.M.USD_EXC.N.N
Asia region: policy, inflation & yields 9 charts
4heating 2steady 1cooling 0stress
Trade & tech cycle
67.5% +17.1pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Korea is the canary for Asian trade and the semiconductor cycle.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 3-month sum of USD exports, y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < 0%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Verified vs MOTIR: Aug-2026 US$98.25bn, +68.7% y/y (semiconductors +209%). Sep-2026 (US$120.9bn, +83.5%) not yet in OECD feed. Customs 10/20-day data not available via free API.
Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_IMTS@DF_IMTS): KOR.W.X.C.M.USD_EXC.N.N
27.1% +12.3pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Regional export momentum = demand for Australian energy, metals and services.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 3-month sum of USD exports, y/y: heating > +10%; cooling < 0%; otherwise steady. Aggregate of China, Japan, Korea, India, Indonesia (months where all five report).
Caveat: Taiwan and Vietnam are not in OECD IMTS (Taiwan customs has no free bulk API); aggregate stops at the latest month all five report.
Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_IMTS@DF_IMTS): CHN+JPN+KOR+IND+IDN.W.X.C.M.USD_EXC.N.N
48,626 +81.5% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Taiwan/Korea equities are dominated by chipmakers: the AI/semis cycle drives Asian capex and trade.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: TAIEX: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; heating if 12-month return > +25%; cooling if < -10%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Proxy for Taiwan exports/semis billings (no free keyless source found). Verified: TAIEX record close 49,822.55 on 2026 7 Oct, about +70-72% YTD; KOSPI about +60-65% YTD.
Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): ^TWII, ^KS11
99.81 +0.0 over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Free proxy for regional PMIs: manufacturing confidence across Australia's main customers.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Average of China, Japan, Korea (months all report): heating > 100.5; cooling < 99.5; otherwise steady (100 = long-run average).
Caveat: S&P Global / Caixin PMIs are proprietary. OECD BCI is amplitude-adjusted (100 = long-term average). India's series ends Feb-2026 (excluded).
Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_STES@DF_CLI): CHN+JPN+KOR+IDN+AUS+USA.M.BCICP...AA...H
FX, rates & prices
95.7 +1.5% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Asian currency weakness signals dollar funding stress and capital outflow in the region.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 3-month change: stress if Asian FX weakens >= 3%; heating if it strengthens >= 3%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Built from RBA AUD cross rates (KRW, TWD, INR, IDR, SGD, THB, MYR, PHP); excludes CNY and JPY (own sections).
Source: RBA table F11.1: FXRSKW, FXRNTD, FXRIRE, FXRIR, FXRSD, FXRTB, FXRMR, FXRPHP (crossed with FXRUSD)
3.00% +50bp over 6m
Why it matters for Australia: Regional easing vs tightening shows whether Asia is fighting slowdown or inflation/currency pressure.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Count of the 7 central banks that moved >= 10bp over 6 months: cooling (easing cycle) if cuts exceed hikes by >= 3; heating if hikes exceed cuts by >= 3; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Latest value field shows Korea. BIS series except Australia (RBA F1 cash rate target, fresher than BIS). China as defined by BIS; US = midpoint of target range.
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_CBPOL): D.KR+IN+ID+CN+JP+US; RBA table F1: FIRMMCRTD
4.4% +1.0pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Inflation differentials drive where regional rates (and currencies) head.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Latest value field shows India.
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_LONG_CPI): M.KR+IN+ID+CN+JP.771
4.45% +160bp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Australia's 10y now sits above most of Asia: relative yields drive regional demand for AUD bonds.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Latest value field shows Korea. Indonesia not available in OECD feed.
Source: OECD Data Explorer (DSD_STES@DF_FINMARK): CHN+IND+IDN+JPN+KOR+AUS.M.IRLT.PA.....
Hang Seng IndexCOOLING
24,314 -1.0% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Hong Kong is the offshore market for Chinese risk; its drawdowns mark regional risk-off.
Rule & sources
Rule: Hang Seng: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.
Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): ^HSI
US & global
US economy, rates & global credit 38 charts
8heating 18steady 3cooling 3stress
US rates, dollar & funding
FF 3.88%, real +0.62pp -0.9pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: The Fed sets the global price of money; a high real Fed funds rate is the anchor for real rates everywhere, including Australia.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Real fed funds (monthly avg effective rate minus core PCE y/y): cooling (restrictive) if > 1.5pp; heating (stimulatory) if < 0; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Real rate observed only in months where core PCE is published (no interpolation).
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DFF; FRED (St Louis Fed): PCEPILFE
US Treasury 2y & 10yHEATING
5.24% +68bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: The 10y Treasury anchors global mortgage and corporate funding costs, including Australia's 10y.
Rule & sources
Rule: 10y, 3-month change: heating (tightening) if >= +40bp; cooling if <= -40bp; otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DGS10, DGS2
5.65% +57bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Long-bond yields set the cost of long-term funding; around 6% is a level where hedging pressure in long-bond futures is thought to intensify, which can make moves faster.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only: distance of the 20y yield from the 6% reference line.
Caveat: FRED DGS20 daily from 1962; no 20-year series was published from Jan 1987 to Sep 1993 (gap). Dotted line = 6% reference level, not a forecast. Full history in the interactive view.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DGS20
+0.42 pp +1bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Curve shape signals whether markets see the Fed as too tight (inverted) or expect growth/inflation and term premium (steep).
Rule & sources
Rule: Cooling if inverted (< 0); heating if > 1.25pp (steep); otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): T10Y2Y
2.91% +59bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: The global real rate: the hurdle every leveraged asset must clear, from US private credit to Australian property.
Rule & sources
Rule: Cooling (restrictive) if > 2%; heating if < 1%; otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DFII10, T10YIE
121.6 +0.9% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: A rising dollar tightens financial conditions for Asian USD borrowers and pressures the AUD.
Rule & sources
Rule: 3-month change: stress if >= +3% (dollar squeeze); heating (easy) if <= -3%; otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DTWEXBGS
-3 bp +7bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Repo stress (SOFR above interest on reserves) means dollar liquidity is getting scarce, which hits offshore USD borrowers and carry trades first.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 5-day average: stress if > +5bp (repo trading above IORB = reserve scarcity); cooling if > 0bp; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Month/quarter-end spikes are normal; rule uses a 5-day average.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): SOFR, IORB, RRPONTSYD
US & global credit conditions
3.11% +40bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: The bellwether of the global credit cycle; private credit marks lag but follow it.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: HY OAS: stress > 6%; cooling 4.5-6%; heating < 3.5% (very easy credit); otherwise steady.
Caveat: ICE BofA indices via FRED (FRED serves a rolling window of history only).
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): BAMLH0A0HYM2, BAMLC0A0CM
0.90% +6bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: What Asian borrowers pay for dollar credit; widening hits Chinese developers and regional banks first.
Rule & sources
Rule: Percentile of trailing 10 years: stress >= 90th; cooling 70-90th (credit tightening); heating <= 20th (very tight spreads = easy credit); otherwise steady. Applied to Asia corporate OAS.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): BAMLEMRACRPIASIAOAS, BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS
12.02 US$ -6.5% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Listed BDCs are the daily-priced window into US direct lending; sell-offs here have led stress in Australian private-credit trusts.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: BIZD price: stress if >= 20% below 52-week high; cooling if 10-20% below; heating if within 2% of the 52-week high; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Price only (excludes ~10%+ distribution yield); VanEck BDC Income ETF tracks MarketVector US Business Development Companies index.
Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): BIZD
-0.49 +0.0 over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Broad US financial conditions; tightening here tends to transmit to Asian funding markets.
Rule & sources
Rule: NFCI: stress > 0 (tighter than average); heating < -0.3 (loose); otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): NFCI, STLFSI4
VIXSTEADY
15.2 -2.0 over 1m
Why it matters for Australia: Volatility shocks force deleveraging across carry trades and risk assets, including the AUD.
Rule & sources
Rule: Stress > 30; cooling 20-30; heating < 13; otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): VIXCLS
+0.0 net % -9.5 over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Bank credit supply leads defaults by ~a year; tightening pushes borrowers to private credit.
Rule & sources
Rule: Stress > 20; cooling 0-20; heating < -10; otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DRTSCILM
US bank C&I loans (y/y)COOLING
10.0% +13.1pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Bank business lending vs private credit: which channel is funding US corporates.
Rule & sources
Rule: Heating if y/y > 10% or 3-mo annualised growth exceeds y/y by > 1pp (accelerating); cooling if 3-mo annualised is > 1pp below y/y (decelerating); otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): BUSLOANS
US economy
3.0% -0.2pp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: US inflation decides how far the Fed can cut (or must hike), and so the global floor under real rates.
Rule & sources
Rule: Core PCE: heating > 3%; cooling < 2%; otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): PCEPILFE, CPIAUCSL
4.2% -0.2pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: A rising US jobless rate is the classic trigger for a global easing cycle and risk-off.
Rule & sources
Rule: Stress if 3-mo avg >= 0.5pp above its low of the prior 12 months (Sahm-style); else cooling if 3-mo avg up >= 0.2pp y/y; heating if down >= 0.2pp y/y; otherwise steady. The Fed's official real-time Sahm indicator (SAHMREALTIME, recession signal >= 0.50) is shown for reference.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): UNRATE, SAHMREALTIME
198 '000 -15.4% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Weekly, real-time read on US layoffs.
Rule & sources
Rule: 4-wk average y/y: stress >= +20%; cooling >= +10%; heating <= -10%; otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): ICSA
6.75 US$tn +2.4% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: QT drains dollar liquidity that ultimately funds global carry and credit.
Rule & sources
Rule: y/y: cooling (QT) if < -5%; heating (QE) if > +5%; otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): WALCL
Brent crude (US$/bbl)HEATING
125.4 US$ +87.0% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Oil drives Australian fuel inflation and Asia's import bill (most of Asia is a net oil importer); LNG contracts are oil-linked.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: y/y: heating > +20%; cooling < -20%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: EIA Brent spot (physical, dated) via FRED, lags a few days. In Oct-2026 physical Dated Brent (~US$129 on 7 Oct) traded ~US$28 above ICE front-month futures (~US$100) because of Hormuz disruption, so headline futures quotes look much lower.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DCOILBRENTEU
US labour market (early signals)
34.4 hrs +0.2 over 1y
Takeaway: Private workers averaged 34.4 hours a week in Sep 2026 (+0.2 over a year); total hours worked (index 124.7, 2007=100) are +0.9% y/y.
Why it matters for Australia: Firms cut hours before they cut jobs, so falling average hours and a stalling aggregate-hours index are an early read on US labour demand (and hence on US growth, the Fed and global risk appetite).
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Aggregate weekly hours index y/y: cooling if < 0.5%; stress if < -1%; heating if > 3%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: All-employee hours series begin March 2006. The Apr-2020 spike in average hours is a composition effect (low-hour workers laid off). Latest two months are revised with the payroll report.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): AWHAETP, AWHI; BLS public API (fallback if FRED fails): CES0500000002, CES0500000034
2.49 m +0.6% over 1y
Takeaway: Temp-help employment is 2.49m in Sep 2026, +0.6% y/y and -21.3% from its 2022 peak.
Why it matters for Australia: Temp workers are the first hired and first let go, so temp-help jobs have historically peaked and turned down months before total payrolls.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: y/y: cooling if < -3%; stress if < -8%; heating if > +5%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Structural shift: staffing firms have lost share to gig platforms and direct hiring, so part of the post-2022 decline may be structural rather than cyclical.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): TEMPHELPS; BLS public API (fallback if FRED fails): CES6056132001
0.0% 4-wk avg 198k
Takeaway: The 4-week average of initial claims is 198k (week to 2026 3 Oct), 0.0% above its 12-month low: below the 15% flag.
Why it matters for Australia: A sustained rise in layoffs from their cycle low has preceded every US recession since the 1970s; it is the fastest hard-data read on whether the labour market is cracking.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: % above 52-week low of the 4-week average: stress >= 20%; cooling >= 15% (flag zone 15-20%); otherwise steady.
Caveat: Seasonal adjustment is noisy around holidays, hurricanes and auto-plant retooling; the 15-20% band is a rule of thumb, not an official threshold. Pandemic 2020 values go off the scale.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): IC4WSA
US continuing claims (m)HEATING
1.72 m -10.7% over 1y
Takeaway: 1.72m people were claiming in the week to 2026 26 Sep, -11.0% y/y.
Why it matters for Australia: Continuing claims track how hard it is for laid-off workers to find a new job; rising continuing claims with flat initial claims means slow hiring rather than mass layoffs.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: y/y: stress >= +25%; cooling >= +10%; heating <= -10%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Lags initial claims by one week; covers regular state programmes only (excludes federal extensions).
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): CCSA
3.3% +0.1pp over 1y
Takeaway: Hires 3.3% and quits 1.9% in Aug 2026 (hires +0.1pp y/y; 2015-19 average 3.8%). Real-time Sahm rule 0.00 (Sep 2026) vs the 0.50 recession trigger.
Why it matters for Australia: Low hiring and quitting mean workers are afraid to switch jobs and firms are not adding staff: a 'low-hire, low-fire' market that can tip quickly if layoffs rise.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Hires rate: cooling if below its 2015-19 low (3.5%); otherwise steady. Context: real-time Sahm rule recession signal at >= 0.50.
Caveat: JOLTS lags a month behind payrolls and has a low survey response rate, so revisions can be large. The Sahm indicator is the real-time (as first published) FRED series; the unemployment card shows its history.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): JTSHIR, JTSQUR, SAHMREALTIME; BLS public API (fallback if FRED fails): JTS000000000000000HIR, JTS000000000000000QUR
+4.2%
Takeaway: Withheld taxes over the 20 business days to 2026 9 Oct are +4.2% y/y, vs a 1-year average of +4.0% and CPI inflation of 3.4% (positive real growth).
Why it matters for Australia: Withheld taxes are deducted from pay cheques and arrive at the Treasury every business day, so they are a near-real-time read of the US wage bill (jobs × hours × pay) well ahead of the monthly payroll report.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Cooling if below its 1-year average by more than 3pp or below CPI inflation (negative real growth); otherwise steady.
Caveat: Noisy: the number of paydays and business days in each 20-day window, tax-law changes (e.g. withholding table changes, payroll-tax deferral in 2020-21) and refunds move it. The DTS changed format in Feb 2023 (Table IV discontinued), so y/y comparisons across Feb 2023-Feb 2024 mix two tables.
Source: US Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement (fiscaldata.treasury.gov API): Table IV 'Withheld Income and Employment Taxes' (to Feb 2023); deposits 'Taxes - Withheld Individual/FICA' (from Feb 2023)
US income, jobs & prices vs trend
-20.2% vs pre-2008 trend +0.8% over 1y
Takeaway: Latest Aug 2026: -20.2% vs its 1982-2007 trend (3.1%/yr then, 2.5%/yr since mid-2009).
Why it matters for Australia: Income earned from work and capital (not government transfers) is what sustains demand; a persistent shortfall vs trend caps how far price shocks can spread into broad inflation.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Trend is our log-linear fit to Jan 1982 - Dec 2007, extended to today; growth since the Jun 2009 trough is 2.5%/yr. Real = chained 2017 dollars (BEA), revised every release.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): W875RX1
-9.9% vs pre-2008 trend +1.1% over 1y
Takeaway: Latest Aug 2026: -9.9% vs its 1982-2007 trend (2.1%/yr then, 1.7%/yr since mid-2009).
Why it matters for Australia: Per-person spending power after tax, adjusted for prices: the household budget constraint behind consumer demand.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Trend is our log-linear fit to Jan 1982 - Dec 2007, extended to today; growth since the Jun 2009 trough is 1.7%/yr. Real = chained 2017 dollars (BEA), revised every release.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): A229RX0
1.89% +0.0pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Hiring relative to the population shows how much churn and opportunity the labour market offers; past hiring droughts preceded falling participation.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Cooling if the 3-month average is below 1.85% (early-2010s levels) and down y/y; heating if above 2.3%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: JOLTS hires level (thousands, SA) divided by the BLS civilian noninstitutional population 16+; participation rate on the right axis. JOLTS starts Dec 2000 and is revised with annual benchmarks.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): JTSHIL, CNP16OV, CIVPART
-12.0m vs 2010s trend +496.0 over 1y
Takeaway: Payrolls 159.0m (Sep 2026), -12.0m vs the 2010s trend line.
Why it matters for Australia: If jobs had kept growing at their pre-pandemic pace there would be millions more; the gap is a measure of the income that is missing from demand.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Trend is our log-linear fit to Feb 2010 - Feb 2020 payrolls, extended; latest BLS vintage (benchmark revisions move history).
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): PAYEMS
2.19% -0.7pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: The trimmed mean drops the biggest price moves each month; when it runs below core, inflation is narrow (a few categories) rather than broad.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Heating if trimmed mean > 3%; cooling if < 2%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Dallas Fed trimmed mean (12-month) and BEA core PCE price index y/y; both revised with each PCE release.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL, PCEPILFE
US credit & bills
12.53% +284bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: CCC bonds are the weakest borrowers and widen first when refinancing gets hard; a CCC blow-out while the broad index is calm means stress is concentrated at the margin.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: CCC OAS: stress > 12%; cooling 9-12%; heating < 7%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: ICE BofA indices via FRED, which serves only a rolling ~3-year window by licence. HY master OAS on the right axis.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): BAMLH0A3HYC, BAMLH0A0HYM2
22.70 US$ -1.2% over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Leveraged loans are floating-rate debt of lower-rated companies; falling loan prices signal lenders demanding more for risk as cash flows weaken.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Cooling if FLBL is > 2% below its 3-month high; stress if > 4% below; otherwise steady (price-only, so a slow drift from distributions is normal).
Caveat: Exchange prices (not total return: monthly distributions are excluded, so price drifts down over time even in calm markets). BKLN on the right axis.
Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): FLBL, BKLN
3m bill 4.25%, +38bp vs SOFR +40bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: When bill yields rise above overnight repo (SOFR), markets are pricing higher policy rates or bill supply pressure; bills below SOFR price cuts.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Treasury constant-maturity bill yields (bond-equivalent) and NY Fed SOFR via FRED. CME Term SOFR is licensed and not shown; the 30-day average SOFR is the free backward-looking proxy.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): DGS1MO, DGS3MO, SOFR, SOFR30DAYAVG
Global credit cycle (BIS)
7.3% +2.1pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: The offshore dollar credit cycle: Asian corporates and sovereigns are among the biggest users.
Rule & sources
Rule: Heating > 8%; cooling < 0%; otherwise steady.
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_GLI): Q.USD.3P.N.A.I.B.771
Credit-to-GDP gaps (BIS, pp)HEATING
-9.7 pp +3.8pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Credit far above trend has preceded most banking crises; a negative gap means deleveraging.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Per economy: stress > +10pp; heating +2 to +10; steady -2 to +2; cooling < -2. Status shown is for the highest gap.
Caveat: Latest value field shows Australia; the gap is a one-sided HP-filter trend and is unreliable for China/Japan structural shifts.
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_CREDIT_GAP): Q.AU+CN+JP+US+KR+XM.P.A.C
20.3% -0.3pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Direct test of the thesis: the share of income going to interest and principal.
Rule & sources
Rule: Australia vs its own 10-year average: stress >= +2pp; cooling (restrictive) >= +1pp; heating <= -1pp; otherwise steady.
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_DSR): Q.AU+CN+JP+US+KR.P
0.2 % GDP -2.2 over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: A positive impulse adds to demand growth; Australia's is driven by housing and business credit.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 4-quarter change in 4-quarter credit flow as % of GDP: heating > +1pp; cooling < -1pp; otherwise steady. Applied to Australia.
Caveat: Derived from BIS total credit to private non-financial sector (all lenders, market value).
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_TC): Q.AU+US+JP+KR.P.A.M.XDC+770.A
4.2% +2.2pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Property is the main collateral for credit across the region.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: CPI-deflated; coverage differs by country (China = 70-city new homes).
Source: BIS Data Portal (WS_SPP): Q.AU+CN+JP+US+KR.R.771
US dollar funding & liquidity 10 charts
2heating 6steady 0cooling 0stress
Live US dollar funding and curve indicators from the NY Fed, Federal Reserve and FRED: repo rates vs interest on reserves, primary-dealer settlement fails, Fed backstop facilities, the near-term forward spread, curve slopes and the copper/gold ratio.
Repo & Fed backstops
-3 bp +7bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Repo trading at or above interest on reserves means dealers are balance-sheet constrained and dollar liquidity is getting scarce; the 99th percentile shows the tail of the market paying up first.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 5-day avg SOFR-IORB: stress if > +5bp; heating if > 0bp or SOFR 99th pctile 5-day avg > +10bp; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Month/quarter-end spikes are normal (rule uses 5-day averages). BGCR and TGCR differ by ~0-1bp; TGCR shown. IORB starts Jul-2021.
Source: NY Fed Markets API (SOFR, BGCR, TGCR): rate, 1st/99th percentile, volume; FRED (St Louis Fed): IORB
2,961 US$bn +1.3% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Rising repo volume with flat rates = ample collateral financing; rising rates with flat or falling volume would point to balance-sheet scarcity.
Rule & sources
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Source: NY Fed Markets API (SOFR, TGCR): volumeInBillions
260.0 US$bn -18.8% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Settlement fails jump when Treasuries are hard to borrow (collateral scarcity, e.g. Mar-2020); persistent spikes can impair repo intermediation and dollar funding.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 4-week average vs trailing 3-year median: stress if > 2x; heating if > 1.3x; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Weekly cumulative fails reported by primary dealers (Wednesday as-of dates); this API series starts Apr-2013 (older history uses a different series layout).
Source: NY Fed Markets API (Primary dealer statistics): PDFTD-USTET, PDFTR-USTET (US$m, weekly, cumulative for the week)
0.0 US$bn +0.0 over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Use of the Fed's repo backstop shows dealers cannot get private repo at a reasonable price, an early sign of funding strain that spills over to offshore dollar borrowers.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Max over last 20 business days: stress if >= US$50bn; heating if >= US$5bn; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Quarter-end takeup (e.g. 30 Sep) is common and partly window-dressing; the rule looks at the 20-day max, so a quarter-end print alone can trigger 'heating'.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): RPONTSYD, WORAL
0.21 US$bn +0.2 over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Swap-line drawings are the clearest sign of an offshore dollar shortage: foreign central banks borrow US dollars from the Fed to lend on to their banks.
Rule & sources
Rule: Latest: stress if >= US$50bn; heating if >= US$5bn; otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): SWPT
9.96 US$bn +2.8 over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Banks only borrow at the discount window when market funding fails or stigma is outweighed; spikes mark bank funding stress (2008, 2020, Mar-2023).
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Primary credit: stress if >= US$25bn; heating if >= 2x its 3-year median; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Wednesday levels. Seasonal credit (WLCFLSECL) excluded.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): WLCFLPCL, WLCFLSCL
0.0 US$bn
Why it matters for Australia: The PDCF is the Fed lending directly to securities dealers; it was only used in 2008 and 2020 and is shown for history.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Spliced from the 2008-era series and the 2020-22 facility series; both discontinued, so this card is history only.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): H0RESPPALDDNWW, H41RESPPALDHNWW
Curve & forward signals
+85 bp +50bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: The Fed's own preferred curve recession signal (Engstrom-Sharpe): a negative spread means markets price rate cuts within 18 months, i.e. expected weakness.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Latest 5-day avg: cooling if < 0bp (cuts priced = recession signal); heating if > +100bp; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Computed here: forward = Svensson zero curve 1.5y-1.75y (converted to quarterly compounding) minus 3m CMT bill (DGS3MO). The Fed's published series uses its own bill-curve fit, so levels differ by a few bp. GSW lags ~1 week.
Source: Federal Reserve GSW zero-coupon curve (feds200628): BETA0-3, TAU1-2 -> Svensson zero yields at 1.5y and 1.75y; FRED (St Louis Fed): DGS3MO
+0.95 pp +22bp over 3m
Why it matters for Australia: Curve inversion and the later bull steepening have preceded US recessions; a steep curve with rising long yields can instead reflect term or policy-risk premia.
Rule & sources
Rule: 10y-3m: cooling if < 0 (inverted); otherwise steady.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): T10Y3M, T10Y2Y
1.62 ratio +35.1% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Copper (industrial demand) relative to gold (safety, liquidity) tends to track long-term yields; divergence tests whether higher yields reflect growth or other forces.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: 3-month change: cooling if <= -10%; heating if >= +10%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Front-month COMEX futures (US$/lb over US$/oz). Copper was supply-constrained in 2026, which lifts the ratio without implying stronger growth.
Source: Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): HG=F; Yahoo Finance chart endpoint (unofficial): GC=F; FRED (St Louis Fed): DGS10
Markets
Passive flows & market structure 18 charts
How the growth of index funds and ETFs shows up in US market plumbing: money created into the big S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 ETFs, leveraged and single-stock ETF assets, the gap between cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices, when returns are earned (overnight vs during the session), options-implied correlation and dispersion, corporate net equity issuance and valuation context. Passive-flow / market-structure indicators, context only (no traffic lights). Each card's Takeaway is written from the latest values.
Money into index ETFs
-0.1 $b
Takeaway: SPY saw -0.1b in the week to 2026 12 Oct and +0.2b over 13 weeks; +9b year to date (2026 12 Oct latest file). Shares outstanding: 1.06b.
Why it matters for Australia: Each new SPY share is created when an authorised participant hands the trust a basket of S&P 500 stocks, so the change in shares outstanding times NAV is the money that came in (or left) through the fund.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Implied flow = daily change in shares outstanding × prior-day NAV (State Street file; shares outstanding start 2006 31 May). SPY is heavily used by traders, so weekly swings are large and partly reverse.
Source: State Street SPY NAV history (shares outstanding, NAV): SPY navhist
101.6
Takeaway: Latest issuer shares outstanding: IVV 1.147b (2026 12 Oct); QQQ 0.672b (2026 12 Oct); SPY 1.055b (2026 12 Oct). Too few points yet for a trend.
Why it matters for Australia: IVV, VOO and QQQ issuers publish only today's shares outstanding, so the dashboard stores each week's value; comparing their growth with SPY separates long-horizon holders (cheaper IVV/VOO) from trading vehicles (SPY).
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: History starts 2026 16 Sep (first stored snapshot) and grows one point per refresh. VOO shares outstanding are not published in a fetchable form (Vanguard), so VOO vs SPY cannot be shown yet.
Source: iShares IVV product page; Invesco QQQ fund details; State Street SPY NAV history: shares outstanding
Leveraged, inverse and single-stock ETFs
38.6 $b
Takeaway: TQQQ holds $38.6b and SQQQ $2.1b (2026 12 Oct): long-leveraged money is 18x the inverse side.
Why it matters for Australia: Leveraged ETFs must buy after up days and sell after down days to reset their exposure, so their size shows how much mechanical, momentum-style trading sits on top of the index.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Assets under management from ProShares' daily file (from Feb 2010). Daily rebalancing flows depend on the day's index move, not shown here.
Source: ProShares historical NAV files (TQQQ, SQQQ): AUM, shares outstanding
-0.7 $b
Takeaway: Over the 13 weeks to 2026 12 Oct, TQQQ took -0.7b and SQQQ +0.6b.
Why it matters for Australia: Money tends to flow into the leveraged long fund after falls (buy the dip) and into the inverse fund after rallies, so the two often move against each other.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Implied flow = change in shares outstanding × prior NAV, summed weekly then over 13 weeks.
Source: ProShares historical NAV files: Shares outstanding × NAV
90.6 $b
Takeaway: Largest: TQQQ (12 Oct) 38.6b, DRAM (30 Sep) 25.9b, SOXL (12 Oct) 20.1b, TSLL (13 Oct) 3.8b, SQQQ (12 Oct) 2.1b.
Why it matters for Australia: A snapshot of the biggest leveraged and concentrated ETFs; issuers other than ProShares publish only today's shares outstanding, so history accumulates week by week in the dashboard's snapshot file.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Assets = shares outstanding × latest close where the issuer does not publish assets. Single-stock funds (NVDL, MSTU and others) are covered in full in the single-stock cards below. DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) is actively managed and unleveraged; shown as the memory-chip theme fund.
Source: Direxion daily holdings files (SOXL, TSLL); Roundhill DRAM fact sheet; ProShares NAV files; Yahoo Finance closes: shares outstanding × price
Single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs
26.1 $b as of 2026 13 Oct
Takeaway: 91 funds hold $26.2b ($25.4b long, $0.7b inverse, 34x more long); the Mag 7 account for $12.6b (48%). Largest by stock: NVDA $5.0b, MU $4.6b, TSLA $4.3b; largest fund NVDL $4.0b.
Why it matters for Australia: Single-stock leveraged ETFs give 2x (or -1x/-2x) a company's daily move and must trade the stock (via swaps) every day to stay at that multiple; their size shows how much mechanical buying and selling sits on top of a few popular stocks.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: 91 US-listed funds on 22 stocks (universe checked 2026 13 Oct; funds under about $5m and other stocks omitted). Assets as published by each issuer (GraniteShares shows assets rounded to 3 significant figures; Direxion assets derived from holdings weights). Stale: TSMG (24 Aug) (issuer file not updated). Only ProShares publishes daily history; other issuers' history before 2026 12–13 Oct is month-end SEC N-PORT-P net assets (quarter-end months only, interpolated between points), and snapshots are stored each weekly refresh. Time line starts 2026 30 Apr.
-2,907 $m (97% of AUM covered) net implied flow, last 13 weeks to 2026 13 Oct
Takeaway: 97% of sslev AUM has history covering the 13-week window. Net implied flow -2,907m; biggest: NVDA -947m, MSFT -600m, MU -568m. 13-week aggregate -2.94b. Inaccurate (hatched, needs more history): SpaceX 19%.
Why it matters for Australia: Creations and redemptions show whether traders are adding or pulling leveraged bets on each stock: inflows after a stock falls are dip-buying; outflows after a rally are profit-taking.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Implied flow = change in shares outstanding × prior NAV (same calculation as the SPY/TQQQ cards), summed per stock from funds whose history covers the full 13-week window. Bars are always drawn; where those funds are <80% of that stock's single-stock leveraged ETF AUM the bar is hatched/faded and the panel carries an 'INACCURATE — NEEDS MORE HISTORY' watermark. ProShares (NVDB, TSLI, SPCF) has daily history. 79 other funds are backfilled with month-end net assets from SEC N-PORT-P filings (only each fiscal quarter's final month is public, ~60-day lag; mostly 31 Mar/30 Apr and 30 Jun/2026 31 Jul), shares = net assets ÷ the fund's own split-adjusted close; between those points and the issuer snapshots (from 2026 12–13 Oct) shares are interpolated linearly, so weekly timing inside the window is approximate and only the 13-week total is meaningful. Funds launched after the last public N-PORT (mostly SpaceX funds) have no history yet. Headline and the flow-pause single-stock condition use the same ≥80% AUM-coverage rule (today 97%). Flow-pause stays n/a below the threshold because a partial sum would show a flow sign driven by which funds happen to have history.
Source: Issuer data: Direxion holdings files; GraniteShares, REX (T-Rex), Defiance, Tradr, Leverage Shares fund pages; ProShares NAV files; SEC N-PORT-P month-end net assets (history before Oct 2026): change in shares outstanding × prior NAV
2.65 $b rebalancing on a ±5% day, Mag 7 + 10 largest others summed (2026 13 Oct)
Takeaway: On a ±5% day, rebalancing would be largest relative to trading in MSTR (148m = 5.32% of ADV), COIN (63m = 3.98% of ADV), TSLA (460m = 3.50% of ADV); net notional is biggest vs market cap in MSTR 4.05%, COIN 2.48%, SNDK 1.35%. For the Mag 7 combined: 1,302m on a 5% move.
Why it matters for Australia: A 2x fund must buy more of the stock after it rises and sell after it falls (an inverse fund too: it buys back its short after a rise). The size of that same-direction trade, relative to how much of the stock normally trades, shows how much leveraged ETFs can amplify a big move into the close.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Rebalance need for one fund ≈ AUM × L × (L−1) × the day's return (2x long: 2 × AUM × r; −2x: 6 × AUM × r; −1x: 2 × AUM × r), always in the direction of the move; funds' rebalancing is summed per stock. Real trades are smaller where funds use swaps hedged by dealers who net exposures, and can be spread over the day. Market cap = latest SEC-reported shares (cover page count, else balance sheet or weighted-average count) × latest close; SpaceX uses Q2 2026 weighted-average shares (IPO 12 Jun), so its market cap is understated and % figures overstated. BRK.B and TSM market cap n/a (share classes / ADR ratio). GOOGL traded value includes GOOG. Leveraged ETFs outside the US (e.g. Europe, Korea, Hong Kong) are not included.
Source: Fund assets as in the card above; Yahoo Finance daily close and volume (unofficial chart endpoint); SEC XBRL company facts (shares outstanding): AUM × L; AUM × L(L−1) × 5%; 63-day average close × volume
900 $m as of 2026 13 Oct
Takeaway: 12 SpaceX funds hold $0.9b ($0.7b long, $0.2b inverse); largest SPCH 368m. SPCF (ProShares) has seen +114m of implied flow since launch. A ±5% SPCX day implies about 122m of rebalancing (0.92% of ADV).
Why it matters for Australia: SpaceX listed on Nasdaq (ticker SPCX) on 2026 12 Jun; a dozen 2x long, 2x inverse and 1x inverse funds launched within days, the fastest build-out of leveraged products on a new listing so far.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Funds launched 2026 12–15 Jun (DSPC 27 Aug). SPCF (ProShares) has daily history since launch; others are weekly snapshots from 2026 30 Apr. Leverage on a new, volatile listing can be limited by swap availability, position limits and float (see issuer risk notes).
Concentration
121.5
Takeaway: Cap-weight has beaten equal-weight by 2.8% over the past year (2026 13 Oct); the ratio is 121 vs 100 in Dec 2006, at its high.
Why it matters for Australia: Index funds buy in proportion to market value, so new money goes mostly to the largest stocks; a rising line means the biggest companies are outrunning the average stock.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Price indices from Dec 2006 (Yahoo's ^SPXEW history); SPY/RSP uses dividend-adjusted ETF prices from May 2003. Equal weight rebalances quarterly.
Source: Yahoo Finance (unofficial chart endpoint): ^GSPC, ^SPXEW; SPY, RSP adjusted close
39.0%
Takeaway: The ten largest holdings are 39.0% of SPY (2026 9 Oct).
Why it matters for Australia: The share of the S&P 500 held in its ten largest companies is the plainest measure of concentration.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Quarter-end points from SPY's public SEC N-PORT-P filings (sum of the ten largest holding lines, from Sep 2019; ~60-day filing lag), then the SSGA daily holdings file for recent snapshots (one point per refresh). Same definition in both: ten largest lines, GOOGL and GOOG counted separately.
Source: State Street SPY daily holdings file (latest): Weight; SEC EDGAR: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust N-PORT-P (quarterly history): Holding pctVal
When returns are earned
1,389
Takeaway: Since 1993, $100 held only overnight grew to $1,389 vs $127 held only during the session; past 12 months: overnight +14.4%, intraday +2.6% (2026 13 Oct).
Why it matters for Australia: Index-fund and ETF buying is concentrated around the open and close; a large overnight share of returns is one sign that flows rather than daytime price discovery are driving prices.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Price only (dividends excluded, which go ex overnight). Early SPY opens on Yahoo may be stale. Both start at 100 in Jan 1993.
Source: Yahoo Finance (unofficial chart endpoint): SPY daily open, close
Correlation and dispersion
11.7 -4.3 over 1y
Takeaway: 3-month implied correlation is 11.7 (2026 13 Oct), higher than 2% of days since 2006; 1-month 7.6.
Why it matters for Australia: Implied correlation measures how much options traders expect S&P 500 stocks to move together; low readings mean index moves are driven by a few large names diverging from the rest.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Cboe history from Jan 2006 (back-calculated before the 2023 relaunch of the methodology).
Source: Cboe index historical data: COR1M, COR3M
36.8 -2.0 over 1y
Takeaway: DSPX is 36.8 (2026 13 Oct), higher than 96% of days since 2014.
Why it matters for Australia: DSPX is the options market's expected spread of individual stock returns around the index over 30 days; high dispersion with low correlation is typical of a concentrated, flow-driven market.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: History from Jun 2014.
Source: Cboe index historical data: DSPX
Supply of shares and valuation
+0.61 $tn
Takeaway: Net issuance was +0.61tn a year in 2026Q2 (+1.9% of GDP); the 4-quarter average is +0.03tn.
Why it matters for Australia: Buybacks and cash takeovers retire more shares than companies issue, so the supply of stock shrinks while passive savings keep buying it.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Seasonally adjusted annual rate, net of buybacks and M&A retirements. Read from the Fed's Z.1 CSV package because FRED was unreachable during the build (same series as FRED NCBCEBQ027S/BOGZ1FA103164105Q).
Source: Federal Reserve Financial Accounts (Z.1), table S.11.1 (CSV files): FA103164105.Q
262% +44.0pp over 1y
Takeaway: Equity value is 262% of GDP at 2026Q2, the highest since 1946 (long-run median 74%).
Why it matters for Australia: Equity market value relative to the size of the economy is a broad valuation gauge (a cousin of the 'Buffett indicator').
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Market value of nonfinancial corporate equities (excludes financial firms) over the trailing four-quarter sum of nominal GDP from the same release. Quarterly; about 10 weeks lag.
Source: Federal Reserve Financial Accounts (Z.1), S.11.1 and S.1.1: LM103164105.Q / 4Q sum FU086902005.Q
40.7 x +1.5 over 1y
Takeaway: CAPE is 40.7 (Oct 2026) vs a long-run median of 16.6; near the Dec-1999 peak of 44.2.
Why it matters for Australia: The cyclically adjusted P/E compares prices with a decade of inflation-adjusted earnings; high readings have historically gone with low 10-year returns.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Latest month uses Shiller's estimated earnings and CPI; monthly averages of daily prices.
Source: Robert Shiller, ie_data.xls (shillerdata.com): CAPE
Flow-pause warning (early-warning heuristic)
3 of 6 on: AMBER as of 2026 14 Oct
Takeaway: 3 of 6 conditions are on (AMBER). Initial claims 4-wk avg > 15% above 12-month low: off [0.0% above low (03 Oct)]; Withheld tax receipts (20-day y/y) > 3pp below 1-yr avg, or below CPI: off [+4.2% y/y vs 1y avg +4.0%, CPI 3.4% (09 Oct)]; SPY 13-week creations negative: off [+0.15b (12 Oct)]; TQQQ 13-week flows negative: ON [-0.70b (12 Oct)]; Single-stock leveraged ETFs: aggregate 13-week flows negative: n/a [excluded until weekly snapshots build up (history is interpolated quarterly SEC data); provisional 13-week -2.94b]; COR3M below 10th percentile AND DSPX above 90th: ON [COR3M 11.7 = 4th pct, DSPX 36.8 = 96th pct (13 Oct)]; Net equity issuance (4q avg) above long-run average: ON [4q avg +0.03tn vs long-run avg -0.11tn (2026Q2)].
Why it matters for Australia: Passive inflows depend on pay cheques flowing into retirement and brokerage accounts and on leveraged/ETF buyers staying in. This card counts seven simple conditions that would each suggest those flows are slowing (weaker jobs and wages, ETF redemptions, fragile market structure, more share supply). It is an early-warning checklist, not a timing signal: conditions can stay on for months without a sell-off, and sell-offs can start with few of them on.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Traffic light on the count: GREEN 0-1, AMBER 2-3, RED 4+ (of the conditions with data). Context heuristic only; not part of the section's scored indicators.
Caveat: Thresholds are judgement calls set once, up front. Percentiles and averages use only data available at each date (expanding windows), but inputs start at different times (SPY creations 2006, withheld taxes 2006, TQQQ 2010, Cboe correlation/dispersion history from its start), so the count's history is not like-for-like. Leveraged-buyer input: TQQQ is kept because it is the one leveraged fund with 16 years of daily history (so it can be backtested), and it is still the largest leveraged ETF; aggregate single-stock leveraged flows were added alongside it because by 2026 single-stock funds hold a comparable pool of the most speculative, retail-driven money concentrated in a few stocks, and their redemptions are a more direct read on that money stepping back. It is currently excluded (n/a, not in the denominator) until weekly snapshots build up, because its history is interpolated quarterly SEC data; it has no backtest. Light backtest: 2007-09 GFC (S&P 500 peak 2007 9 Oct): inputs available: 3/7; count in 12m before peak: max 1, avg 0.5, at peak 0 (prior 4 years avg 0.5); share of days each was on: claims 0%, spy 49%, iss 0% | 2020 Covid crash (peak 2020 19 Feb): inputs available: 6/7; count in 12m before peak: max 3, avg 1.7, at peak 0 (prior 4 years avg 1.4); share of days each was on: claims 8%, withheld 7%, spy 58%, tqqq 98%, corr 0%, iss 0% | 2022 bear market (peak 2022 3 Jan): inputs available: 6/7; count in 12m before peak: max 3, avg 1.8, at peak 1 (prior 4 years avg 1.9); share of days each was on: claims 19%, withheld 2%, spy 33%, tqqq 46%, corr 0%, iss 80% | Base rate since all/most inputs exist: since Feb 2010 the count was >= 3 on 18% of days and >= 4 on 3% of days
Coverage
The main sources of mechanical, price-insensitive buying and selling in US equities, and where this dashboard tracks each one. 'Gap' means no free, timely public series was found.
| Flow source | Dashboard chart(s) | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| ETF / fund flows | SPY creations, 3x Nasdaq-100 flows, ETF shares outstanding index | covered |
| Retirement-plan default contributions | gap: no free timely series (401(k)/target-date flows are only in annual or lagged ICI/Fed data) | |
| Benchmark / index changes | Top-10 weight in SPY, Cap- vs equal-weight | partial: concentration only, no rebalance or add/delete calendar |
| Model portfolios | gap | |
| CTAs (trend followers) | gap: no free positioning estimate (CFTC COT could be a proxy) | |
| Vol-control funds | VIX | partial: volatility level only, no exposure estimate |
| Risk parity | Implied correlation | partial: correlation context only |
| Leveraged-ETF resets / rebalancing | Single-stock leveraged ETF rebalancing vs volume, Single-stock leveraged ETF flows, 3x Nasdaq-100 assets, Leveraged ETF snapshot | covered |
| Dealer hedging (options gamma) | Dispersion index | gap for gamma itself (no free dealer-positioning data); dispersion as context |
Credit risks: where the spend is going 21 charts
Where US and Australian capex and credit are flowing, and where leverage is building: the data-centre and power build, how the biggest spenders fund it (cash flow vs bonds and leases), credit spreads, bank lending to non-bank lenders, private-credit (BDC) marks, and the Australian side (capex by industry, grid and telecoms construction, business credit by industry). All free public data: BEA, Census, EIA, Fed (H.8, Z.1, G.17, SLOOS), ICE BofA via FRED, SEC EDGAR filings, ABS, RBA. Each card's Takeaway is written from the latest values.
82%Big-5 capex / operating cash flowtrailing 4 qtrs to Q2 2026$85bnUS data-centre constructionSAAR Aug 2026, +73% y/y102bpBBB corporate spread+6bp over 3m311bpHigh-yield spread+42bp over 3m1065bpCCC minus BB spread2026 12 Oct+19% y/yBank loans to non-bank financials$2.08tn, 2026 30 Sep98.9%BDC loans: fair value / costmedian of 5 large BDCs+10.7% y/yAU private capex (real)Q2 2026
7heating 3steady 1cooling 0stress
Where the spend is going (US)
+32.7% +7.6pp over 1y
Takeaway: In Q2 2026 info-processing equipment spending was +32.7% y/y and software +8.7%, while structures were -2.9% and equipment overall +16.4%.
Why it matters for Australia: US capex is the demand behind Asian chip and equipment exports and behind the bond issuance that sets global credit spreads; a boom narrowed to one category is more fragile.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Nominal dollars (BEA current-dollar levels), so price changes are included. Info-processing equipment includes computers, servers and communication gear; software includes own-account software.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): B009RC1Q027SBEA, Y033RC1Q027SBEA, Y001RC1Q027SBEA, Y034RC1Q027SBEA, B985RC1Q027SBEA
+0.69 pp GDP 2.2%
Takeaway: Tech investment added +0.69pp to annualised real GDP growth of 2.2% in Q2 2026 (info-processing equipment +0.19, software +0.33, R&D +0.17).
Why it matters for Australia: When one narrow investment theme supplies a large share of US growth, US (and hence global) growth becomes exposed to that theme's financing and earnings.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Gross contributions: imported computers and chips are counted here but subtracted elsewhere in GDP (net exports), so the net effect on US output is smaller. Quarterly annualised figures are noisy and revised.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): Y034RY2Q224SBEA, B985RY2Q224SBEA, Y006RY2Q224SBEA, A191RL1Q225SBEA
85 $bn +73.2% over 1y
Takeaway: Private data-centre construction ran at $85bn a year in Aug 2026 (+73% y/y), versus $141bn for electric power and $168bn for factories (-20% y/y).
Why it matters for Australia: Data-centre and power-plant building is the physical side of the AI capex boom; it competes for the same electrical equipment, labour and project finance that Australian data-centre and energy projects need.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Data centre construction y/y: heating if > 25%; cooling if < 0%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Private construction only, current dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate; excludes the servers and chips inside. Census added the data-centre category in 2014; the latest two months are preliminary and revised.
Source: US Census Bureau, Construction Spending (C30), private SAAR table: privsatime.xlsx: Data center, Electric, Manufacturing, Computer/electronic/electrical
+3.1% all sectors +1.2%
Takeaway: Commercial-sector electricity sales over the 12 months to Jul 2026 were +3.1% y/y and total US sales +1.2%; G.17 power output (12-month average) was +2.3% y/y in Aug 2026.
Why it matters for Australia: Data-centre load shows up first in commercial-sector power sales; faster US power demand supports gas, uranium and grid-equipment prices that matter for Australian exporters and energy costs.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Commercial-sector sales 12-month y/y: heating if > 3%; cooling if < 0%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: EIA monthly sales are preliminary (cutoff sample) for the latest two years and weather-driven; utilities classify data centres as commercial or industrial depending on rate schedule. 12-month sums are used to remove seasonality; the EIA monthly table only carries the last ~2.5 years, so its lines start late 2025 and the longer history is the Fed G.17 electric power output index.
Source: US EIA, Electric Power Monthly Table 5.1: Sales of electricity to ultimate customers by sector; FRED (St Louis Fed): IPG2211S
190.1 +12.4% over 1y
Takeaway: US semiconductor output was +12.4% y/y in Aug 2026 (index 190.1).
Why it matters for Australia: US semiconductor output growth is one read on the chip cycle that drives Korean and Taiwanese exports, Asian FX and the regional demand Australia sells into.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: y/y: heating if > 10%; cooling if < 0%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Industrial production of semiconductors and other electronic components (NAICS 3344); a real-output index built partly from price-deflated value, so quality changes matter.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): IPG3344S
Who is paying for it: hyperscaler cash flow, debt and credit spreads
82% +21.0pp over 1y
Takeaway: The five largest spenders used 82% of their trailing-year operating cash flow on capex in Q2 2026 (a year earlier 61%), leaving $126bn of combined free cash flow; CoreWeave's capex was 298% of its operating cash flow.
Why it matters for Australia: Above 100% the biggest AI spenders become net borrowers, adding supply to investment-grade bond markets and raising the risk that a capex pull-back hits chip, power and equipment suppliers across Asia.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Combined capex/OCF (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle): stress if > 100%; heating if > 75%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Oracle's fiscal quarters (to Aug, Nov, Feb, May) are aligned to the next calendar quarter end. Capex excludes finance-lease and operating-lease data-centre commitments. CoreWeave (far above 100%) is shown in the per-company panels, not on this line.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts (10-Q/10-K): PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment / PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets, NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities; MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL, CRWV
Big-5 capex $566bn TTM to Q2 2026
Takeaway: Shaded red where trailing-year capex exceeds operating cash flow. Microsoft 63%; Alphabet 71%; Amazon 107%; Meta 69%; Oracle 161%; CoreWeave 298% (capex as % of operating cash flow, latest trailing 4 quarters).
Why it matters for Australia: When capex runs above operating cash flow (red shading) the gap must be funded with bonds, leases or cash reserves; that issuance lands in the same credit markets Australian banks and companies borrow from.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Capex = cash purchases of property & equipment; it excludes assets acquired under finance leases and data centres taken on operating leases, so true commitments are larger. Fiscal years differ (Microsoft to June, Oracle to May). Quarterly values are derived from year-to-date 10-Q figures.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts (10-Q/10-K): PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment (Amazon: PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets), NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities; MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL, CRWV
160 $bn Oracle Aug 2026
Takeaway: Oracle's debt plus lease liabilities were $160bn at Aug 2026 (vs $108bn a year earlier); CoreWeave's $35bn (Mar 2026).
Why it matters for Australia: Oracle and CoreWeave fund their data-centre build mostly with debt and leases; their bonds, loans and spreads are the early read on whether credit markets will keep financing the AI build.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Carrying values from balance sheets; lease liabilities are added where tagged (they exclude leases signed but not yet commenced, which for several firms are larger than those on the balance sheet). Commercial paper is excluded. Off-balance-sheet joint ventures (e.g. data-centre SPVs) are not captured.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts (10-Q/10-K): LongTermDebt (or LongTermDebtNoncurrent + LongTermDebtCurrent; Oracle LongTermNotesAndLoans + NotesPayableCurrent), OperatingLeaseLiability, FinanceLeaseLiability; MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL, CRWV
664 $bn
Takeaway: Latest remaining performance obligations: Microsoft $684bn (Jun 2026); Alphabet $520bn (Jun 2026); Oracle $664bn (Aug 2026); CoreWeave $104bn (Jun 2026).
Why it matters for Australia: Backlog (contracted future revenue) is what lenders lean on when they fund data centres; a backlog concentrated in a few AI-lab customers is a credit risk if those customers cannot pay.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Amazon does not tag AWS backlog in XBRL after 2020, so it is omitted. RPO counts signed contracts, including multi-year commitments that customers can sometimes reduce; it is not cash.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts (10-Q/10-K): RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation; MSFT, GOOGL, ORCL, CRWV
102 bp +5bp over 3m
Takeaway: BBB spreads are 102bp (2026 12 Oct), the 39th percentile of the 3 years FRED publishes; AA 58bp, BB 188bp.
Why it matters for Australia: Tight spreads let hyperscalers, Oracle and data-centre developers borrow cheaply; a re-pricing would raise funding costs for every borrower, including Australian banks and corporates that issue offshore.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: BBB OAS percentile of the available FRED history: heating (complacent) if <= 15th; stress if >= 85th; otherwise steady.
Caveat: ICE BofA index data on FRED are limited to a rolling ~3-year window by licence, so percentiles are relative to that window only; option-adjusted spreads over Treasuries. Hyperscalers mostly sit in AA/A, Oracle in BBB.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): BAMLC0A1CAAA, BAMLC0A2CAA, BAMLC0A3CA, BAMLC0A4CBBB, BAMLH0A1HYBB
1065 bp +258bp over 3m
Takeaway: CCC bonds yield 1065bp more than BB bonds (2026 12 Oct), against a 3-year median of 717bp (FRED history window).
Why it matters for Australia: The gap between the riskiest (CCC) and safest (BB) junk bonds widens first when defaults are coming, even while headline spreads look calm.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Stress if > 1.5 × its median over the available FRED history (~3 years); heating (complacent) if < 0.75 × median; otherwise steady.
Caveat: FRED carries only ~3 years of ICE BofA history. Index composition shifts as issuers are up- or downgraded; CCC spreads can jump on a few large distressed names.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): BAMLH0A3HYC, BAMLH0A1HYBB
48.2% -0.4pp over 1y
Takeaway: US nonfinancial corporate debt was 48.2% of GDP in Q2 2026 ($15.7tn); a net +0.0% of banks tightened business-lending standards in the Jul 2026 survey.
Why it matters for Australia: High corporate leverage plus tightening bank standards is the classic setup for a US credit downturn, which reaches Australia through funding costs, equity markets and commodity demand.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Z.1 nonfinancial corporate debt securities and loans (market value basis for securities), divided by nominal GDP (annual rate). SLOOS = net % of banks tightening C&I standards for large and mid-sized firms.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): BCNSDODNS, GDP; FRED (St Louis Fed): DRTSCILM
Private credit and non-bank lending
+19.5% -35.6pp over 1y
Takeaway: Bank loans to non-bank financials were $2.08tn in the week to 2026 30 Sep, +19.5% y/y, versus +5.9% for all bank credit.
Why it matters for Australia: Banks increasingly lend to private-credit funds, BDCs and other non-banks rather than to companies directly; fast growth here is leverage on leverage that can tighten quickly when marks fall.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: y/y: heating if > 15%; cooling if < 0%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: H.8 reclassification in early 2025 (banks re-reported loans by borrower type) inflates growth across that period; y/y around 2025 overstates new lending.
Source: FRED (St Louis Fed): LNFACBW027SBOG, TOTBKCR
98.9% latest 10-Q
Takeaway: Median fair value / cost across five large BDCs is 98.9% (Ares Capital 98.9%, Blue Owl Capital Corp 99.0%, Blackstone Secured Lending 96.4%, FS KKR 90.6%, Main Street 115.5%).
Why it matters for Australia: Business development companies are the listed window into private credit; falling marks relative to cost are the first public sign of losses in loans to mid-sized (often software and services) companies.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Median of the five BDCs: stress if < 95%; cooling if < 98%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Portfolio-wide marks include equity stakes (large at Main Street, where fair value above cost reflects equity gains). Non-accrual rates are not tagged in XBRL, so they are not shown. Quarterly, 10-Q/10-K.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts (10-Q/10-K): InvestmentOwnedAtFairValue, InvestmentOwnedAtCost; ARCC, OBDC, BXSL, FSK, MAIN
7.2%
Takeaway: Latest trailing-year PIK share of total investment income: Ares Capital 7.2% (Q2 2026); Blue Owl Capital Corp 7.3% (Q2 2026); FS KKR 14.3% (Q2 2026).
Why it matters for Australia: Payment-in-kind (PIK) interest is added to the loan instead of paid in cash; a rising PIK share means more borrowers cannot service their debt from cash flow.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Only BDCs that tag PIK interest each quarter are shown (Blackstone Secured Lending stopped tagging it in 2023; Main Street does not tag it). Some PIK is agreed at origination rather than forced by distress.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts (10-Q/10-K): InterestIncomeOperatingPaidInKind (OBDC: InterestAndDividendIncomeOperatingPaidInKind), GrossInvestmentIncomeOperating; ARCC, OBDC, BXSL, FSK, MAIN
93% -2.7pp over 1y
Takeaway: The five BDCs trade at a median 93% of their last reported NAV (2026 13 Oct); Ares Capital 96%, Blue Owl Capital Corp 71%, Blackstone Secured Lending 93%, FS KKR 58%, Main Street 159%. BDC ETF (BIZD) -11% over a year (price only).
Why it matters for Australia: A listed BDC trading well below its reported net asset value signals that the market expects further loan losses than the managers have marked.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Median of the BDCs shown: stress if < 85%; cooling if < 95%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: Daily close divided by the most recent quarter-end NAV per share already filed (NAV is reported with a 4-6 week lag, so recent moves compare against an old NAV). Prices are not total-return adjusted.
Source: Yahoo Finance (unofficial chart endpoint): ARCC, OBDC, BXSL, FSK, MAIN; SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts (10-Q/10-K): NetAssetValuePerShare; ARCC, OBDC, BXSL, FSK, MAIN
Australia: capex, data-centre build and credit by industry
51.0 A$bn +10.7% over 1y
Takeaway: Real private capex was A$51.0bn in Q2 2026 (+10.7% y/y): buildings & structures +3.8%, equipment +18.7%.
Why it matters for Australia: Business investment is where data-centre, energy-transition and mining projects show up in the Australian economy; it also drives demand for business credit.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Total real capex y/y: heating if > 8%; cooling if < 0%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: ABS 5625.0 excludes agriculture, public sector and much of education/health history, and does not capture software or data-centre fit-out separately; seasonally adjusted chain volume measures.
Source: ABS Data API (CAPEX): M1.CVM.1+2+TOT.TOT.20.AUS.Q
24.8 A$bn +90.6% over 1y
Takeaway: Four-quarter capex to Q2 2026: Information media & telecoms A$24.8bn (+91% y/y); Electricity, gas, water & waste A$18.7bn (+10% y/y); Rental, hiring & real estate A$13.2bn (-2% y/y).
Why it matters for Australia: Data-centre builders (AirTrunk, NextDC, CDC) and network owners sit mainly in information media & telecoms and property; energy-transition spend sits in utilities.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: ABS industry of the spending business, not the asset: a data centre owned by a property trust appears under rental, hiring & real estate. Original, current-price data summed over four quarters to remove seasonality.
Source: ABS Data API (CAPEX): M1.CUR.TOT.P08+P03+P10.10.AUS.Q
31.7 A$bn +8.7% over 1y
Takeaway: Electricity engineering work totalled A$31.7bn over the four quarters to Q2 2026 (+9% y/y); telecoms A$7.3bn (-7%).
Why it matters for Australia: Electricity and telecoms engineering work is the Australian version of the US power and data-centre build: it needs project finance, raises import demand and competes for scarce construction labour.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Engineering construction excludes buildings, so data-centre shells (non-residential building) are not here; current prices, so construction-cost inflation is included.
Source: ABS Data API (EWD): M1.CUR.13.07+10.10.AUS.Q
+22.6% +6.2pp over 1y
Takeaway: In Aug 2026: Financial & insurance (excl. selected financial businesses) +22.6%; Rental, hiring & real estate +11.8%; Construction +11.6%; Electricity, gas, water & waste +10.6%; Info media & telecoms +7.8% y/y.
Why it matters for Australia: Fast lending growth to property, construction and financial firms is where Australian credit risk tends to build; the RBA and APRA flag both.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Financial & insurance credit y/y: heating if > 15%; cooling if < 0%; otherwise steady.
Caveat: RBA D14.1 starts Jul 2019, is not seasonally adjusted and not break-adjusted (lender reclassifications show as jumps); covers lenders with at least $2bn of business credit.
Source: RBA D14.1 Lending to business by industry (APRA EFS): small+medium+large business finance outstanding by industry
159 -41% over 1y
Takeaway: NextDC closed at A$9.57 on 2026 14 Oct, -41% over a year; relative to the ASX 200 it is +1% since Jan 2019.
Why it matters for Australia: NextDC is the only large listed pure-play Australian data-centre developer (AirTrunk is privately owned by Blackstone); its share price is a daily market read on the local AI-infrastructure build and its funding appetite.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only.
Caveat: Price indices only (no dividends); NextDC's capacity, contracted MW and debt are in its ASX half-year and annual reports and are not machine-readable here.
Source: Yahoo Finance (unofficial chart endpoint): NXT.AX, ^AXJO
Risk & history
Geopolitics watch 3 charts
Hand-curated, dated items, each checked against the linked source on 2026 12 Oct. These are qualitative and deliberately not scored; the GPR and EPU charts below are context only. Update geo.py ITEMS when refreshing.
| Date | Theme | What happened | Market channel to Australia/Asia | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 7–11 Oct | Middle East / energy shipping | Hormuz escalation moved to the bypass route: on 7 Oct Iran said it would close the 'illegal' southern route hugging Oman's coast, and a tanker was hit by 'multiple projectiles' off Qatar (~500km west of the strait). On 9-10 Oct the IRGC said it struck the LPG carrier NV Sunshine on that route, and UKMTO reported a projectile fire on the crude tanker GEM NO2 off the UAE. Trump said on 8 Oct the US will not attack Iran before the 3 Nov midterms. On 11 Oct Iran's security council head called the latest US response 'insufficient'. Brent futures settled US$104.72 on 9 Oct (US$100.20 on 7 Oct). | Brent and oil-linked Asian LNG prices; Australian fuel inflation and so the RBA; LNG export receipts; Asian importers' terms of trade | The Guardian, 2026 8 Oct Asharq Al-Awsat / AFP, 2026 10 Oct |
| 2026 6–8 Oct | Middle East / energy shipping | Strait of Hormuz: tanker attacks hit their highest weekly level since the Iran war began (2026 28 Feb). Only seven commodity vessels transited on 6 Oct (lowest since 23 Jul), and crude through the strait fell to ~10.1 mb/d, 74% of pre-war (Kpler). Gulf exports rerouted via the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea kept total Middle East crude exports near pre-war levels. | Brent and oil-linked Asian LNG prices; Australian fuel inflation (and so the RBA); LNG export receipts; Asian importers' terms of trade | The National / Reuters, 2026 8 Oct |
| 2026 10 Oct | Fuel security / Russia | Trump announced a deal for Russia to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the US and global markets immediately, then 500,000 tons in November, rising later to 3m tons. Energy Minister Bowen said Australia does not 'need or want' Russian fuel and will not change its approach. Australia holds 43 days of petrol and 31 days of diesel, with 51 fuel ships en route and 3.2bn litres contracted over the next four weeks. | Global diesel supply and margins; Australian diesel and freight costs (CPI automotive fuel, and so the RBA); mining and farm input costs; friction with US sanctions policy | The Guardian, 2026 10 Oct ABC News, 2026 10 Oct |
| 2026 27 Sep – 5 Oct | US-China trade | After Xi's 24-25 Sep state visit to Washington, the US and China released '30-for-30' Board of Trade lists: reciprocal tariff cuts (mostly to MFN) on ~US$30bn of goods each way. Officials say cuts are not immediate (US Section 301 notice-and-comment first). The Kuala Lumpur tariff truce was extended from 2026 10 Nov to 2027 10 Jan. China's list includes US coal. | CNY, China export growth, iron ore sentiment, AUD; US coal gaining access to China competes with Australian coal | Covington, 2026 5 Oct Caixin, 2026 1 Oct |
| 2026 8 Oct | China-Australia trade (iron ore) | Fortescue's September-quarter update: cash fell 37% to $3.2bn (from $5.1bn) and net debt rose to $2.8bn (from $0.9bn). Shipments were 46.8 Mt (-6% y/y, port maintenance) and sales 42.9 Mt. FY27 shipment, cost and capex guidance is held but 'subject to' negotiations with China's state buyer CMRG, which earlier this year told some mills not to take Fortescue's flagship product. BHP settled its own CMRG standoff in April 2026. | Iron ore pricing power shifting toward Chinese buyers; Pilbara volumes and margins; budget mining receipts; AUD | Mining Weekly / Reuters, 2026 8 Oct |
| 2026 9 Oct | Japan politics / BoJ | The Takaichi cabinet approved and submitted its bill to cut the consumption tax on food and drink from 8% to 1% for two years from April 2027, plus income-linked payments; ~¥10tn of revenue is lost over two years. The government says no deficit-financing bonds will be used but has not named funding sources (Diet session ends 12 Dec). The BoJ (1.25% after June and September hikes) is expected to hold at its 29-30 Oct meeting, and the Fed is expected to hike on 28 Oct (MUMSS view, 5 Oct). | JGB 10y/30y yields and term premium, yen carry (USD/JPY, AUD/JPY), Japanese demand for foreign bonds including AGS | Kyodo News, 2026 9 Oct MUFG/MUMSS Japan Weekly, 2026 5 Oct |
| 2026 5 Oct | Japan-Australia economic security | Treasurer Chalmers and Finance Minister Katayama signed a memorandum in Tokyo setting up an annual Japan-Australia Finance Ministerial Dialogue. It covers sharing information on investment trends and supply chains (including defence industry), energy security and critical minerals. Japan's only similar finance dialogues are with Korea and China (the China one has not met since August 2018). | Japanese capital inflows into Australian resources, energy and infrastructure; LNG supply security for Japan; critical-minerals financing (e.g. Lynas) as a hedge against China's export controls | The Japan Times / Bloomberg, 2026 6 Oct Japan Ministry of Finance, 2026 5 Oct |
| 2026 6–11 Oct | Taiwan Strait | In the 24 hours to 6am on 10 Oct, Taiwan's MND tracked 21 PLA aircraft sorties (13 crossed the median line), 7 PLAN ships and 2 official ships. This followed a 6 Oct 'joint combat readiness patrol' (14 sorties, 9 across the line). After President Lai's 10 Oct National Day address, Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office called him a 'pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence'. | Risk premium on TAIEX/semis supply chain (TSMC is ~41% of the TAIEX); regional risk-off hits AUD and Asian FX | Taiwan MND, PLA activity 2026 9–10 Oct (Chinese) Taiwan MND press release, 2026 6 Oct People's Daily / Xinhua, 2026 11 Oct |
| 2026 1–9 Oct | South China Sea | USNI counts at least six dangerous Philippine-China encounters since 1 Oct (Scarborough, Second Thomas Shoal, Spratlys), plus a new front in the Luzon Strait near Batanes, where Taiwan's coast guard shadowed a Chinese survey ship and its escort. On 8 Oct China Coast Guard water cannon and blocking delayed a medical evacuation from BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal by nearly 10 hours. On 9 Oct Philippine forces pushed a Chinese militia vessel and 22 small boats away from Loaita Island. On 3 Oct a J-16 intercepted a Philippine C-208 over Scarborough. | Shipping-lane risk on Australia's northern trade routes; regional defence spending; risk sentiment | USNI News, 2026 9 Oct GMA News, 2026 9 Oct |
| 25 Sep / 2026 6 Oct | AUKUS / defence | On 6 Oct Anduril and the US Navy announced 'Arsenal-2', a $6.6bn submarine-component yard at Sparrows Point, Maryland ($3.7bn of Anduril's own money plus a Navy contract worth up to $2.9bn), adding ~15% to Virginia-class labour capacity. It is meant to ready production by 2030, starting with torpedo tubes. The aim includes meeting AUKUS sales to Australia in the 2030s. Earlier, after a GAO report on idle US attack subs, Rep. Joe Courtney pointed to Australia's US$8.5bn Henderson (WA) repair investment, and Kurt Campbell warned some at the Pentagon would 'love a stumble' (25 Sep). | AUKUS delivery risk and federal defence spending/fiscal position; WA construction demand; alliance / US-China risk premium | USNI News, 2026 6 Oct Crikey, 2026 25 Sep |
| 14 Mar / 2026 13 Apr | Critical minerals | US-Australia critical minerals framework (signed Oct 2025): at the 2026 14 Mar Tokyo ministerial, each side said it had provided at least US$1bn of financing within 6 months, with support for 11 named projects (Australia $1.4bn, US $2.2bn) and a new Critical Minerals Supply Security Response Group. China's Oct-2025 rare-earth controls remain suspended under the truce now extended to 2027 10 Jan. | ASX rare-earth/critical-mineral miners; China's rare-earth leverage; foreign capital inflow to the resources sector | DISR (Australian Govt), 2026 13 Apr |
| 2026 15 Jul | Iron ore supply (Simandou) | Rio Tinto: SimFer (Simandou) mine construction and port infrastructure more than three-quarters complete; full rail commissioning achieved in Q1 2026. 2026 Simandou sales guidance is 5-10 Mt (100% basis). Pilbara Q2 sales were up 7% y/y. | Medium-term iron ore supply and price (Australia's largest export), Pilbara market share, budget mining receipts | Rio Tinto Q2 2026 production results, 2026 15 Jul |
Quantitative proxies (context only)
146 +17.8% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Spikes in geopolitical risk tend to lift oil and gold and weigh on the AUD and Asian risk assets.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Newspaper-text index; levels are relative to the 1985-2019 average (=100). No traffic light by design.
Source: Caldara & Iacoviello GPR index: GPR (monthly)
China 1.12, Taiwan 0.19, Japan 0.28, Korea 0.33, Australia 0.14 +0.2 over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Shows which Asian flashpoints dominate the risk news flow that markets trade on.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Share of newspaper articles mentioning geopolitical risk and the country; latest value field shows China.
Source: Caldara & Iacoviello GPR index: GPRC_CHN, GPRC_TWN, GPRC_JPN, GPRC_KOR, GPRC_AUS
Global 282, US 178, China 239, Japan 97, Korea 395, Australia 244 -33.5% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Policy uncertainty (tariffs, fiscal, elections) delays investment and hiring across the region.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Latest value field shows Global (GDP-weighted, current prices). Country indices end on different months (Global Jul 2026, US Sep 2026, China Jul 2026, Japan Sep 2026, Korea Jul 2026, Australia Jul 2026). FRED's China/Japan EPU copies are stale and not used.
Source: Baker, Bloom & Davis EPU (policyuncertainty.com): All_Country_Data.xlsx: GEPU_current, US, China, Japan, Korea, Australia; Japan_Policy_Uncertainty_Data.xlsx; FRED (St Louis Fed): USEPUINDXM
Long-term trends 9 charts
Context only (no traffic lights): the longest reliable free history for US and Australian yields and GDP. Where no single series covers the period, sources are spliced; every splice is a dotted vertical line on the chart, named in the card caveat,. Grey shading: NBER recessions (US) or named Australian recessions (no official dating).
Bond yields and policy rates
10y 5.24%, 2y 4.80%, FF 3.88% +1.1pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: The US 10-year is the world's benchmark discount rate; long-run context shows whether today's level is unusual or a return to pre-2008 norms, which matters for every leveraged Australian asset priced off global yields.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Splices (dotted lines): 10y = Shiller long rate (Homer & Sylla-based; pre-1953 values are annual yields interpolated to monthly, not a constant 10-year maturity) to Mar-1953, then GS10. 3-month = NY commercial paper (NBER) to 1933, then T-bill; commercial paper carries a credit premium (~+0.6pp vs bills in the overlap), so pre-1934 front-end and spread levels are not like-for-like. Policy = FRBNY discount rate to Jun-1954, then fed funds. Chart is monthly; headline uses latest daily values.
Source: Robert Shiller, ie_data.xls (shillerdata.com): Long Interest Rate GS10 (col G), CPI (col E); FRED (St Louis Fed): GS10, DGS10; FRED (St Louis Fed): TB3MS; FRED (St Louis Fed): GS2, DGS2; FRED (St Louis Fed): FEDFUNDS, DFF; FRED (St Louis Fed): M13002US35620M156NNBR; FRED (St Louis Fed): M13009USM156NNBR; FRED (St Louis Fed): USREC
10y 5.40%, 3y 4.93%, cash 4.60% +1.0pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Australian long rates track US yields plus a premium; the long history shows where today's 10y sits against the high-inflation 1970s-80s and the near-zero 2010s.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Splices (dotted lines): 10y = JST annual long-term government bond yield 1870-1968 (not a constant 10-year maturity), then RBA monthly 10-year (F2 historical to Apr-2013, F2.1 from May-2013). Front end = JST annual short-term rate to 1968, then 90-day bank bills (different instruments; see README splice table). Recession shading: 1974-75 = Apr 1974-Dec 1975; 1982-83 = Jan 1982-Jun 1983; 1990-91 = Jul 1990-Jun 1991; 2020 = Jan 2020-Jun 2020 (first to last negative quarter of real GDP within each named period; Australia has no official recession dating).
Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; RBA historical table f02histhist: FCMYGBAG10, FCMYGBAG3; RBA table F2.1: FCMYGBAG10, FCMYGBAG3; RBA table F2: FCMYGBAG10D, FCMYGBAG3D; RBA table F1.1: FIRMMBAB90, FIRMMCRI, FIRMMCRT; RBA table F1: FIRMMCRTD; RBA table H1: GGDPCVGDP (recession shading)
Output (GDP)
real +2.2% y/y, nominal +6.3% -0.2pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: US nominal growth sets the 'natural' level for long yields and the income that services US debt; the long record shows how unusual (or not) the current expansion is.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Splices (dotted lines): pre-1929 real GDP = JST real GDP per capita x population (measure chosen by best fit to BEA; see README) ratio-linked to BEA at 1929; 1929-46 BEA annual; quarterly BEA from 1947. Pre-1929 estimates are reconstructions (Maddison/Balke-Gordon type) with wide error bands. Annual growth plotted mid-year.
Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; FRED (St Louis Fed): GDPC1, GDP; FRED (St Louis Fed): GDPCA, GDPA; FRED (St Louis Fed): USREC
real +2.1% y/y, nominal +5.3% +0.2pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Nominal GDP growth is the income stream that services Australia's household and business debt; when it runs below borrowing rates, leverage starts to bite.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Splice (dotted line): JST annual real GDP (per capita x population) 1870-1959 ratio-linked to ABS chain-volume GDP (RBA H1) at 1960; quarterly ABS from Sep-1959. Pre-1959 Australian GDP is a historical reconstruction (Butlin/Haig-based, via Maddison) with wide error bands. JST data end in 2020; they are only used before 1960.
Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; RBA table H1: GGDPCVGDP, GGDPCVGDPY, GGDPECCPGDP, GGDPECCPGDPY
Now vs 1983-2007 trend: US -22%, Australia -19% breaks US 1880, 1899, 1932, 1946, 1965, 2009 | AU 1892, 1903, 1915, 1930, 1945, 1969, 1999
Why it matters for Australia: Separates temporary slumps (level returns to the old trend) from permanent losses; a lower trend after 2008 means less income growth to carry debt at today's real rates.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Bai-Perron-style least-squares breaks in a log-linear trend (each segment has its own level and slope), minimum segment 10 years, number of breaks by the LWZ criterion (BIC picks as many or more). Break-year bands are approximate (profile likelihood; ignore serial correlation, so true uncertainty is wider). Pre-1950 data are annual historical reconstructions (JST/Maddison) with large error bands, spliced to BEA (1929) and ABS (1960); Australian population from JST to 1959 ratio-linked to World Bank from 1960. The US 1880 break reflects 12% growth in both 1879 and 1880 in the historical reconstructions (resumption boom), which are uncertain. Full tables: data/gdp_trend_segments.csv and data/gdp_shock_recovery.csv.
Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; FRED (St Louis Fed): GDPCA, GDPC1, B230RC0A052NBEA, POPTOTAUA647NWDB, USREC; RBA table H1: GGDPCVGDP
Now vs 1983-2007 trend: US -15%, Australia -24% breaks US 1880, 1899, 1932, 1946, 2009 | AU 1892, 1915, 1930, 1945, 2004
Why it matters for Australia: Separates temporary slumps (level returns to the old trend) from permanent losses; a lower trend after 2008 means less income growth to carry debt at today's real rates.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Bai-Perron-style least-squares breaks in a log-linear trend (each segment has its own level and slope), minimum segment 10 years, number of breaks by the LWZ criterion (BIC picks as many or more). Break-year bands are approximate (profile likelihood; ignore serial correlation, so true uncertainty is wider). Pre-1950 data are annual historical reconstructions (JST/Maddison) with large error bands, spliced to BEA (1929) and ABS (1960); Australian population from JST to 1959 ratio-linked to World Bank from 1960. The US 1880 break reflects 12% growth in both 1879 and 1880 in the historical reconstructions (resumption boom), which are uncertain. Full tables: data/gdp_trend_segments.csv and data/gdp_shock_recovery.csv.
Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; FRED (St Louis Fed): GDPCA, GDPC1, B230RC0A052NBEA, POPTOTAUA647NWDB, USREC; RBA table H1: GGDPCVGDP
Yields vs growth and real yields
US -1.9pp, Australia -0.4pp -1.5pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: The thesis test in one chart: when the 10-year yield runs above nominal GDP growth, debt grows faster than the income that services it and leveraged assets come under pressure.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Gap = 10-year yield minus year-ended nominal GDP growth (annual before 1948 US / 1969 Australia; quarterly after). Uses quarter-average monthly yields, so it lags the latest daily yields. Year-ended growth swings sharply in shocks (2020-21); the 5-year mean shows the regime.
Source: Robert Shiller, ie_data.xls (shillerdata.com): Long Interest Rate GS10 (col G), CPI (col E); FRED (St Louis Fed): GS10, GDP, GDPA; Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; RBA table F2.1: FCMYGBAG10; RBA table H1: GGDPECCPGDPY
US +1.8pp, Australia +1.5pp -0.1pp over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Your thesis variable over 150 years: sustained positive real long rates (1920s-30s, 1980s-90s) coincided with deleveraging; deeply negative ones (1940s, 1970s, 2021-22) eroded debt.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Realised (backward-looking) inflation, not expected inflation; for market real yields since 1997/1986 see the TIPS and indexed-bond cards. Australian CPI includes the 2000 GST step. Splices marked by dotted lines.
Source: Robert Shiller, ie_data.xls (shillerdata.com): Long Interest Rate GS10 (col G), CPI (col E); FRED (St Louis Fed): GS10, DGS10, CPIAUCNS; Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database R6: ltrate, stir, gdp, rgdpmad x pop, cpi; RBA table F2.1: FCMYGBAG10; RBA table G1: GCPIAGYP
Productivity (Australia)
GDP/hour -0.1% vs Dec-19 (-8.8% vs trend); market sector +2.8% -0.2% over 1y
Why it matters for Australia: Productivity is the only lasting source of per-capita income growth; when it stalls, higher real rates have to be serviced from flat real incomes.
Rule, caveat & sources caveat
Rule: Context only (no traffic light).
Caveat: Non-market sector output (health, education, public administration, much of the care economy incl. NDIS) is largely measured by inputs, so its measured productivity is near flat by construction; the shift of hours into these sectors drags whole-economy GDP/hour. 2020-21 levels are inflated by composition (low-paid, low-output hours dropped out in lockdowns), so the post-2021 fall partly unwinds that. MFP data are annual to 2024-25 (released Feb 2026); the 2020s bar covers only 5 years. Implied population = GDP / GDP per capita.
Source: ABS 5206.0 Table 1 (Key aggregates): A2304192L GDP/hour, A3606058X & A130272211T GVA/hour market & non-market, A2304428W hours, A2304402X GDP, A2304404C GDP per capita, A2304410X real GDI (SA); ABS 5260.0.55.002 Industry multifactor productivity: Tables 2-5 (market sector, 12 selected industries); ABS 6345.0 Wage Price Index Table 1: A2713849C (all sectors, SA); RBA table G1: GCPIAG
About / sources. A rules-based monitor of the Australian macro and credit cycle from an Asian and US-funding perspective. All data are free public sources: RBA, ABS, BIS, OECD, FRED (St Louis Fed), Federal Reserve Board (H.4.1, GSW yield curve), NY Fed Markets API (reference rates, primary dealer statistics), Japan Ministry of Finance, Cboe index history files, ETF issuer files (State Street, ProShares, Direxion, iShares, Invesco, Roundhill), Fed Financial Accounts (Z.1), Robert Shiller's data, China NBS releases, ASIC, World Bank Pink Sheet, Geopolitical Risk / EPU indices, Yahoo Finance (unofficial chart endpoint). Each card names its series IDs and links to the source; release lags differ by series. Machine-readable latest values: data/latest_summary.csv.
Disclaimer: for information and education only; not financial, investment or tax advice. Data may be revised, delayed or contain errors; check the original source before relying on any figure.